NCAAB Conference Tournament Week Best Bets: Bulldogs Bark Past Sooners in SEC
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LT Profits
- March 12, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Georgia -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (check our Heritage Sports Review)
It is now Conference Tournament Week, which culminates with Selection Sunday at the end of this week. Some teams will wrap up bids and some will have dreams of getting to the Big Dance dashed over these next few days, and we will be here giving out our plays as usual.
To that end, we have isolated three best bets over the Wednesday and Thursday slates based mostly on our proprietary model. All three plays are sides that we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. We have two selections for Wednesday from the SEC and WAC tournaments, as well as one for Thursday from the AAC.
Check out our YouTube channel for more value picks, featuring the Syracuse vs. SMU and Seton Hall vs. Villanova games.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Wednesday, March 12, 2025 – 09:30 PM ET at Bridgestone Arena
The SEC Tournament begins on Wednesday in Nashville, and the final game of the night pits 11th-seeded Georgia against 14th-seeded Oklahoma. We are backing the Bulldogs to use their size to their advantage and come away with the victory to advance to the second round.
Height Advantage
Georgia finished the regular season 20-11 overall, but with a losing 8-10 record inside the SEC. Still, they are ranked 33rd overall in Kenpom thanks to playing in the best conference in the country. The Bulldogs also come in with good momentum having won their last four games, including beating a Florida team ranked fourth in both Kenpom and the AP Poll.
The Bulldogs are solid on both sides of the court, ranking 52nd in offensive efficiency and a better 25th in defensive efficiency. But we think their key to winning and covering this game is their height advantage, as this is the 10th tallest team in the country with an average height of 6’6.9”. Conversely, Oklahoma ranks 188th in average height.
That size has served the Dawgs well, as they rank 19th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and are an above average 78th in 2-point shooting, with the latter padded by those put-backs off rebounds. As you will see, those strengths match up well with the Sooners’ weaknesses.
Poor Defense Inside Arc
Oklahoma went 19-12 this season but only 6-12 inside the conference, although they too receive an “SEC Boost” ranking 39th in Kenpom. They are also solid on both ends ranking 24th in offensive efficiency and 68th defensively. However, they did stumble down the stretch by going just 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Most importantly, their major weaknesses on defense figure to be their death blow here considering their opponent. This is a poor defensive rebounding team, ranking 274th in that category, and they have an awful interior defense, which is ranked 318th in 2-point shooting allowed. That does not mesh well against one of the tallest teams in the land that is good in those categories offensively.
The Pick
Georgia won the regular season meeting between these clubs by 10 points 72-62.
Given the Bulldogs’ stylistic advantages here and the opposite ways these teams finished the season, we expect a similar result here. Bet on Georgia as modest favorites.
Predicted Score: Georgia 80 – Oklahoma 72
NCAAB Pick: Georgia -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Texas-Arlington Mavericks vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes
Wednesday, March 12, 2025 – 11:30 PM ET at Orleans Arena
The WAC does not get much national attention, but Grand Canyon is the only team from the conference ranked in the Kenpom Top 100. We are betting on the Antelopes to cruise to an easy victory in the tournament quarterfinals on Wednesday over UT Arlington at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
Highest Ranked Despite Being 2-Seed
Grand Canyon made some noise last season by winning 30 games and upsetting Saint Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament, at least giving the WAC some notoriety. Well, they followed that up by going 23-7 this season and tying for first in the conference with Utah Valley at 13-3. GCU is the second seed due to the tiebreaker, but they are the highest-ranked WAC team in Kenpom at #99 while Utah Valley is #122.
The old adage is “Defense wins championships”, and the Antelopes easily have the best defense in the WAC ranking:
- 56th nationally in defensive efficiency.
- 19th in eFG% allowed.
- 27th in turnover percentage forced.
We do think their offense will be their downfall should they make the NCAA Tournament by winning this tournament, as they rank only 201st in offensive efficiency and 176th in eFG%. However, they actually lead the WAC in both of those categories during league play, as well as leading the conference in offensive rebounding percentage!
Sloppy with Basketball
UT Arlington is the seventh seed after finishing the regular year with losing records of 13-17 overall and 6-10 inside the WAC, entering with a lowly Kenpom ranking of 219th. This team was actually at .500 at one point at 11-11 overall and 4-4 in the league before going 2-6 in the final eight games.
Nobody in this conference can compare with Grand Canyon defensively, but the Mavericks were downright awful, ranking 276th in defensive efficiency at 112,1 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 107.3). They figure to get dominated in the second-chance category by the best offensive rebounding team in the WAC, as the Mavs are 305th nationally and ninth (last) in the conference in defensive rebounding.
Yes, UTA has the better offense here, but they were very sloppy with the basketball this season, ranking 305th in turnover percentage, so we do not expect them to reach their average of 74.4 points against a great pressure defense.
The Pick
Grand Canyon is the best team in the WAC this season per Kenpom, they have a national Top 60 defense facing a turnover-prone offense and they figure to dominate in second-chance opportunities.
Give the points with the Antelopes in what should be a double-digit win.
Predicted Score: Grand Canyon 82 – UT Arlington 68
NCAAB Pick: Grand Canyon -8 (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Temple Owls
Thursday, March 13, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Dickies Arena
We foresee an upset in the making in the second round of the AAC Tournament in Fort Worth on Thursday. Thus, we are taking the points with 10th-seeded Tulsa when they take on 7th-seeded Temple.
Vulnerable Favorite
Temple finished 17-14 overall and only 9-9 in the conference, entering this game ranked 162nd in Kenpom. That in itself makes them a lackluster favorite in this spot, especially considering they went 3-6 in their last nine games and the three wins were by two, four and five points respectively.
Still, the biggest concern is they have issues on both ends of the court, especially on defense. In fact, the Owls were:
- 252nd in defensive efficiency.
- 167th in eFG% allowed.
- 311th in turnover percentage forced.
That combination resulted in allowing a disturbing 77.8 points per game, which ranked 329th in the country. And it actually gets worse than that, as Temple allowed a disgusting 81.1 points per game during AAC play!
The offense graded out a bit better, ranking 101st in efficiency at an above-average 110.9 points per 100 possessions. But even on that end, the Owls were only 222nd in eFG%, with the efficiency receiving a boost with many trips to the foul line, as they ranked sixth in the country in FTA/FGA ratio at a whopping 44.7% (national average 33.0%).
They could lose that edge if the referees decide to “let the players play” during the tournament and call less fouls.
Won at Temple Last Month
Now, there is a reason Tulsa is the underdog here, as they went 12-19 for the year and 6-12 in league play. However, they do have the better defense in this game, which is always a good trait for an underdog during the post-season.
The Golden Hurricanes are better than average in:
- eFG% allowed (49.7% vs. 50.9% national average).
- 3-point defense (32.9% vs, 33.8%).
- 2-point defense (49.8% vs. 51.0%).
And “better than average” seems suffocating when compared to Temple’s terrible defense. Yes, Tulsa is only 274th in offensive efficiency, but again, remember that the Owls’ defense has made worse offenses seem better than they are. In fact, the Hurricane went into Philadelphia and scored 80 points when beating Temple 80-74 on the road on February 12th.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that the poor Temple defense simply makes them untrustworthy in a favorite role, and Tulsa already exposed that unit once this year in a road win.
This has us betting on the Gilden Hurricane as underdogs in a possible outright upset.
Predicted Score: Tulsa 76 – Temple 73
NCAAB Pick: Tulsa +3 (-113) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
