NCAAB Conference Tournament Week Best Bets: Demon Deacons To Tar Heels in Upset
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LT Profits
- March 13, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest +5.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Conference Tournament Week is in full swing leading up to Selection Sunday this week. And there are still some potential bracket-busters alive capable of stealing NCAA Tournament berths by winning their tournaments as lower seeds. As usual, we are here to help try to make sense of this March Madness.
We have keyed in on three more best bets for the Thursday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are sides we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. We have selections from the Atlantic 10, ACC and WAC tournaments, and our action starts early with plays at 02:00 PM and 02:30 PM ET.
Davidson Wildcats vs. Saint Louis Billikens
Thursday, March 13th – 02:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena
In the second round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament from Washington, DC Thursday, we give 5th-seeded Saint Louis a bigger edge over 12th-seeded Davidson than the low point spread implies. Thus, we are backing the Billikens to advance to the quarterfinals.
Great Shooting Team
Saint Louis finished 18-13 during the regular season, but they earned a bye in this A-10 Tournament as the fifth seed by going 11-7 inside the conference. This team has the ability to dominate inside thanks to 6’11” center Robbie Avila. He made an impressive 58.9% of his 2-point shots this year while also shooting 35.0% when stepping out beyond the 3-point arc, which is decent enough to prevent defenses from sagging inside.
The Billikens ranked 21st in the country in eFG% and an amazing fourth in 2-point shooting, leading the Atlantic in both categories in league play. Due to their bye, they can now take advantage of a more tired Davidson defense that had to play yesterday to get here, and that Wildcats’ defense is already lacking to begin with.
Speaking of defense, Saint Louis ranks 85th nationally in eFG% allowed at a better-than-average 48.4% (national average 50.9%), and that improves noticeably in A-10 play to 46.7%, second in the conference. That is more than good enough considering the ability of the offense.
Lost 6 of the Last 7
Davidson is now 17-15 overall after stumbling home losing six of their last seven regular season games before advancing with a narrow 73-71 win yesterday. And that struggling victory came against a Richmond team that finished 15th in a 16-team conference and is ranked 238th in Kenpom. That is not a good omen now facing a much better team.
Worst of all, the Wildcats do not seem equipped to hand Avila and the other good Saint Louis inside shooters, as they rank 209th in 2-point defense. In fact, Avila shot 8-for-12 (66.7%) from 2-point range against Davidson in the regular season meeting between these teams.
And to compound matters further, the Cats do not apply much pressure, ranking 307th nationally and 13th in the conference in turnover percentage forced. That should allow the Billikens to get good looks for their inside sharpshooters.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that Saint Louis could dominate this game inside even under normal circumstances, let alone when being well rested while Davidson played yesterday.
Bet on the Billikens as modest favorites Thursday afternoon.
Predicted Score: Saint Louis 77 – Davidson 69
NCAAB Pick: Saint Louis -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Thursday, March 13, 2025 – 02:30 PM ET at Spectrum Center
We are not as high on fifth-seeded North Carolina as their rather lofty Kenpom ranking suggests. This has us betting on the 4-seeds from Wake Forest as higher-seeded underdogs while calling for the outright upset in the ACC Tournament in Charlotte on Thursday.
Overrated?
North Carolina is now 21-12 overall after cruising past 12th-seeded Notre Dame 76-56 yesterday, and they remain highly ranked in Kenpom at 35th overall. But frankly, we question that ranking for a team lacking in high-quality wins this season.
The Tar Heels’ best win based on current Kenpom rankings was a non-conference win over #25 UCLA early in the year. Other than that, they have just one other win this season against a team in the Top 60, and that was not exactly a great resume win over #48 SMU. And they did lose to this Wake Forest team in their only meeting.
Yes, the Heels grade out well metrically, ranking 19th in offensive efficiency and 65th in defensive efficiency, which accounts for the high Kenpom mark. However, as we alluded to, most of that success has come against lesser teams. And they do have one glaring major flaw on defense, ranking 313th in turnover percentage forced.
Rest Advantage
Wake Forest finished the regular season 21-10, earning the fourth seed with a 13-7 mark inside the ACC. In some conferences, there is not much difference in finishing fourth or fifth, but it is a huge deal in the ACC Tournament with the top four teams getting byes.
So, while North Carolina was forced to play yesterday, the Demon Deacons have undoubtedly been game-planning for them since the season ended, expecting this matchup with the Tar Heels heavily favored on Wednesday. And Wake has the defense to contain a UNC offense that may not be quite as good as it looks on paper, with the Deacons ranking 38th in the country in defensive efficiency and 36th in eFG% allowed.
As for the offensive end, Wake Forest prefers a slower pace ranking 193rd in Tempo Rating while North Carlina prefers a fast pace ranking 32nd. This is where the Tar Heels’ inability to force many turnovers comes into play, as it should allow the Demon Deacons to slow this pace to their liking.
The Pick
Adding this all up, we do not think UNC should be favored by 5 to 5.5 points here given their lack of quality wins, their rest disadvantage and with this game expected to be played at Wake’s preferred slower pace.
Take the points with the Demon Deacons in a potential upset.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 76 – North Carolina 75
NCAAB Pick: Wake Forest +5.5 (-108) at Bookmaker
Seattle Redhawks vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats
Thursday, March 13, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Orleans Arena
We have a 4-seed vs. 5-seed matchup in the WAC Tournament on Tuesday, where lower-seeded Seattle is listed as the favorite. We agree with that assessment and are backing the Redhawks to win comfortably over 4th-seeded Abilene Christian in Las Vegas.
80 Spots Higher in Kenpom
Seattle finished the regular year with a losing 13-17 record overall, yet with a #139 ranking in Kenpom, they rank a spacious 80 spots higher than their 219th-ranked opponents from ACU! And remember that the losing record has to do with going 5-9 against a good non-conference schedule ranked 56th in SOS per Kenpom.
Granted, the Redhawks do not have a good offense ranking 211th in offensive efficiency, but that is still considerably better than the Wildcats’ awful 326th ranking in that same category.
Still, we think the huge advantage for Seattle here comes on defense. While the Redhawks are 95th nationally in defensive efficiency, they led the WAC in that metric. Furthermore, they were a very good 28th in the country in both turnover percentage forced and defensive rebounding percentage. Those are the two biggest factors that we think will decide this game as they match well with ACU’s weaknesses.
No Second Chances
Abilene Christian had the better overall record this year at 16-15, but their non-conference schedule was not as good as Seattle’s at 140th in SOS and the teams tied in the WAC at 8-8. ACU was a terrible shooting team, ranking:
- 327th in eFG%.
- 341st in 3-point shooting.
- 299th in 2-point shooting.
Moreover, we mentioned earlier how Seattle’s strengths in forcing turnovers and defensive rebounds match up well with the Wildcats’ weaknesses. That is because ACU is 345th in turnover percentage offensively and 194th in offensive rebounding percentage. So, besides missing a lot of shots, the Cats figure to give away many possessions and they do not figure to make up for that with many second chances.
The Pick
That is an unenviable combination that has us not seeing Abilene Christian getting out of the low 60s. With that in mind, and with Seattle’s expected ability to generate points off their defense, bet on the Redhawks as moderate favorites in a potential double-digit win.
Predicted Score: Seattle 73 – Abilene Christian 62
NCAAB Pick: Seattle -5.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
