NCAAB Conference Tournament Week Best Bets: Seminoles To Chop Orange in Charlotte
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LT Profits
- March 11, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Florida State -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have arrived at a very exciting week for NCAA Basketball with Selection Sunday upon us. But there is still much to be decided before then with this being Conference Tournament Week. As of this writing, lines are only up for Tuesday’s games, so that is where all our selections will come from.
We have isolated three conference best bets for the Tuesday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three plays being sides that we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
We ended up with two selections from the MAAC Tournament, with the third play being a major one from the ACC Tournament. All the action goes in the evening, with the first tip at 06:00 PM ET.
Siena Saints vs. Rider Broncs
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
The opening game of the MAAC Tournament in Atlantic City on Tuesday pits eighth-seeded Rider against ninth-seeded Siena. Despite the seedings, it is Siena that is ranked noticeably higher in Kenpom and we are backing the Saints as small favorites.
Turnovers and Blocks are Key
Now make no mistake, both these teams are flawed on both ends when it comes to efficiency. Siena finished the regular season at 14-17 overall and 9-11 in the conference, and they are currently 250th in Kenpom. That low-ranking stems from ranking 251st in offensive efficiency and 231st in defensive efficiency.
With that said, there are two things that the Saints do well defensively that, considering the two offenses are equally bad, we think will ultimately allow them to prevail safely:
- Siena can rely on creating turnovers, as they rank 98th nationally in defensive turnover percentage at 18.4%, above the national average of 17.3%. That should come into play against a Rider team ranked 198th in offensive turnover percentage.
- Siena is excellent at blocking shots, ranking 29th in the country at 13.2%, well above the national average of 9.4%.
That makes this a great matchup against the small Broncs’ lineup, whose tallest player is 6’9”, with the other four starters all being 6’5” or less.
Offensively Challenged
Rider finished 13-18 overall and tied with Siena in the conference standings at 9-11, gaining the eighth seed via the tiebreaker. However, they are ranked more than 60 spots lower in Kenpom, down at 312th overall, ranking 285th in offensive efficiency and 310th in defensive efficiency.
And while Siena can at least generate points with their defense, the Broncs cannot even do that as they rank poorly in every defensive component ranking:
- 292nd in eFG% allowed.
- 239th in defensive turnover percentage.
- 320th in 3-point defense.
- 245th in 2-point defense.
Sure, they are facing a weak Saints’ offense, but we mentioned that Siena can do things defensively to help the offense. Conversely, the Broncs are on their own offensively, and this is an offense that ranked 316th in eFG%, 302nd in 3-point shooting and 299th in 2-point shooting.
Not surprisingly, Rider averaged a mere 66.7 points per game this season, ranking 337th in the land.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that both teams are weak offensively, although Siena is a tad better, but the Saints’ defensive strengths match up nicely with Rider’s offensive weaknesses. This has us betting on Siena as modest favorites to advance to the quarterfinals.
Predicted Score: Siena 73 – Rider 64
NCAAB Pick: Siena -2.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Syracuse Orange vs. Florida State Seminoles
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
The ACC Tournament kicks off in Charlotte on Tuesday, and in the final game of the day, we are betting on 11th-seeded Florida State when they take on 14th-seeded Syracuse.
Scored 90 Points Last Time
Florida State finished at 17-14 overall and 8-12 inside the conference, cooling off considerably after starting the year 13-5. Those of you that have followed us may be aware that we were down in FSU at that time as their record did not correspond with their offensive inabilities, so we are not surprised by their mediocre finish to the season.
That said, the Seminoles were solid defensively all season finishing 64th in efficiency at 100.8 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 107.1). They were not spectacular in any one aspect, but they were above average in all defensive components, finishing:
- 77th in eFG% allowed.
- 67th in turnovers forced.
- 89th in 3-point defense.
- 93rd in 2-point defense.
Yes, there are still concerns about the Noles’ shooting as they finished 170th in eFG%, but those concerns get alleviated facing a passive Syracuse defense (more on that in a bit). Florida State even scored 90 points in a 90-74 rout of the Orange during the regular season.
Dreadful Defense
Syracuse went 13-18 overall and 7-13 inside the ACC, and rather astonishingly, they won only two games away from home all season. Their offense was decent enough, ranking 94th nationally in efficiency at 111.7 points per 100 possessions. But that was aided by a soft non-conference schedule, as the efficiency dropped to an average 107.3 points per 100 possessions during league play.
That was simply not good enough to carry a dreadful defense that finished 276th in eFG% allowed while applying virtually no pressure with a 346th ranking in turnover percentage forced. That resulted in allowing 78.4 points per game overall, ranking 331st in the land.
The Orange are especially vulnerable inside ranking 294th in 2-point defense, and as bad as Florida State’s offense was overall, at least they were above average in 2-point shooting at 52.6%. Furthermore, the Seminoles shot an amazing 60.5% (23-for-38) inside the arc in the regular season meeting.
The Pick
Adding this all up, Syracuse has the better offense, but Florida State has the significantly better defense. Moreover, the terrible Orange defense already made the FSU offense seem better than it really is once this year.
We expect more of the same with a handy Seminoles win on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Florida State 81 – Syracuse 73
NCAAB Pick: Florida State -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Fairfield Stags vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers
Tuesday, March 11, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
In the nightcap of the MAAC Tournament on Tuesday, we are supporting the upstarts from Sacred Heart in their tournament debut when they take on Fairfield.
Decent First Year in MAAC
Sacred Heart was a longtime member of the smaller Northeast Conference before jumping to the MAAC this season. While they finished 14-17 overall, they did go .500 in their first year in the conference at 10-10 to finish as the seventh seed. They struggled on the defensive end, ranking 318th in efficiency, but for this game at least, that gets offset by Fairfield ranking 322nd in that same metric.
That means the much better Pioneers offense should be the determining factor in this game, and that unit was fun to watch while playing at the second-fastest pace in the MAAC, ranking 49th nationally in Tempo Rating. And Heart was still above average in eFG% despite the rapid pace at 51.6% (national average 50.9%).
Add in above average 3-point shooting at 34.9% and the Pioneers averaging 76.4 points per game overall and 77.9 points during league play.
Slow Pace, Bad Shooting
Fairfield finished 12-19 overall and they are the 10th seed after posting a losing 8-12 record inside the conference. And they are the antithesis of Sacred Heart offensively. That is because while the Pioneers play fast and shoot reasonably well, Fairfield has the unwanted combination of not shooting well and playing at a slow pace.
The Stags rank 269th nationally in Tempo Rating, but unfortunately, that has not led to good looks as they are 309th in offensive efficiency and 355th in eFG%. And there is a good chance they will be taken out of their comfort zone here if Sacred Heary makes shots at their usual rate while forcing a quick tempo.
Fairfield averaged just 67.6 points per game inside the conference this year, virtually the same as their overall average of 67.8 points. And as if that were not bad enough, Sacred Heart should have a nice advantage in second chance opportunities with Fairfield 252nd in defensive rebounding percentage and the Pioneers above average offensively at 31.3% (national average 29.8%).
The Pick
So, in a game where both defenses are equally bad, the huge edge for Sacred Heart offensively combined with an expected edge in second chances and the game being played at their preferred pace has us betting on the Pioneers on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Sacred Heart 78 – Fairfield 68
NCAAB Pick: Sacred Heart -3.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
