NCAAB Top Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+150) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
After looking at the NCAAB odds released earlier by the top sportsbooks, I noticed two more games that interest me:
- NC State vs. Clemson
- Illinois vs. Maryland
Since we already have our college basketball best bets for the day, I will recommend a two-legged parlay for these matchups, so we can squeeze the value out of today’s NCAAB slate. Let’s break it down!
NC State Wolfpack vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, February 17, 2024 – 07:45 PM ET at Littlejohn Coliseum
Parlay Strategy
Clemson is my favorite money-line parlay leg.
I will describe several reasons why Clemson will win today before explaining why Maryland makes a good parlay partner.
Before doing so, I want to emphasize that my choice to avoid playing the Tigers ATS should not to any extent suggest that I lack confidence in them.
Oftentimes, the Tigers will take their foot off the gas pedal when they have a big lead. They could care less if they win tonight’s game by six, seven, eight, or more points. But they will win.
Matchup History
With NC State led by Kevin Keatts and Clemson led by Brad Brownell, the Tigers repeatedly own this matchup.
Last year, Clemson beat the Wolfpack three times, with one win coming by 14 points and the other two wins coming by 25+ points.
Overall, the Tigers have won six straight against the Wolfpack, with the last loss coming in NC State’s venue.
NC State’s Road Resume
The Wolfpack have three road wins in conference play, all of them coming in close calls against teams – Boston College, Louisville, and Notre Dame – that rank in the bottom four in the conference and are not on Clemson’s level.
The Tigers, ranking fifth in the ACC, are too good of an opponent for NC State to compete against outside of its venue.
Clemson’s Form
This is especially true given how well the Tigers are currently playing.
They enter tonight’s game on a three-game win streak that comprises a four-point upset win at North Carolina, a nine-point win at Syracuse and a 17-point win over Miami.
Matchup Problem
NC State likes to play small, often utilizing a four-guard lineup.
In addition to the defensive deficiencies of center DJ Burns, NC State will struggle on defense because it is not built to play with two bigs.
With go-to scorer PJ Hall and strong-bodied power forward Ian Schieffelin, who converts 61.3 percent of his two-point attempts, the Tigers will be too tough inside.
But the Wolfpack won’t be able to compensate for their lack of size by collapsing inside because the likes of sharpshooter Joe Girard with his 42.9 three-point conversion rate will punish them from deep.
Fellow guard Chase Hunter, whose dribble drive potential is aiding Clemson’s ongoing offensive success, is himself heating up from deep.
NC State, on offense, regularly struggles to be efficient on the floor, so it will fail to keep pace with a Tigers offense that has too many easy ways of amassing points.
Parlay Leg: Clemson ML (-325)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, February 17, 2024 – 05:30 PM ET at XFINITY Center in College Park
Illinois-Maryland Matchup Dominance
Onto why the Terps make a great parlay partner with Clemson. Maryland owns this matchup against Illinois, especially when these teams play at Maryland.
Overall, the Terps have won three in a row, including a nine-point victory earlier in this season at Illinois. Since joining the Big Ten, the Terrapins are undefeated in their home venue against Illinois.
Maryland’s Lethal Duo
On offense, the Terps will rely on guard Jahmir Young and center Julian Reese.
As evident in Maryland’s win in Illinois, Reese is too tough inside for Illinois to guard. In that game, Reese was highly efficient as a scorer – he could easily back down and make moves against Illinois’ center Coleman Hawkins – and dominated the glass.
Young will thrive again because Illinois repeatedly has trouble keeping quick guards out of the lane.
Michigan State’s Tyson Walker is one other example of a guard who produced a strong offensive rating against Illinois by using his quickness and craftiness to make moves and blast to the basket.
Maryland’s Defense
Because Maryland’s defense, ranking fifth nationally in efficiency, is elite with its strong rim protectors and suffocating perimeter defense, Illinois will have to win a low-scoring game.
But the Illini are not comfortable with games that are in the 60s. Illinois is in an impossible spot with its defense struggling against Maryland’s primary two-man game.
Parlay Leg: Maryland +2.5 (-110)
Parlay Picks
- Clemson ML (-325)
- Maryland +2.5 (-110)
NCAAB Top Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+150) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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