Nevada vs. Boise State College Football Week 11 Picks: Will the Broncos Slow Down?

Nevada Had No Answers for Colorado State

Nevada suffered a 38-21 home defeat to Colorado State on Saturday. Colorado State’s kicker Jordan Noyes nailed a career-best 60-yard field goal—tied for the second-longest in school history—to put the Rams up 17-0 by halftime.

Just after the break, Ayden Hector forced a fumble that teammate Gabe Kirschke recovered, setting up another field goal from Noyes, this time from 21 yards, pushing the lead to 20-0 early in the third quarter.

On the following kickoff, Nevada misplayed the ball, allowing sophomore wideout Caleb Goodie to storm downfield and knock it free at the goal line. Jace Bellah recovered the loose ball in the end zone, and with Jamari Person’s two-point reception, Colorado State extended its lead to 28-0 with just over 11 minutes left in the third. From there, the Rams maintained full control.

For Nevada, Brendon Lewis completed 20 of 28 passes, racking up 252 yards and a touchdown. Lewis also led the team in rushing with 109 yards on 14 carries, scoring twice on short three-yard runs. Wide receiver Cortez Braham Jr. added a spark to Nevada’s offense, hauling in nine passes for 141 yards.

This loss marks Nevada’s third in a row and fourth in its last five games.

Boise State Crushed San Diego State

Boise State crushed San Diego State 56-24 on Friday night, extending its winning streak to six games.

Ashton Jeanty powered Boise State’s ground game, running for 149 yards and two touchdowns, achieving his eighth consecutive 100-yard game and breaking Jay Ajayi’s school record from 2014. Despite a slow start with only 37 yards on 15 carries in the first half, Jeanty exploded for 112 yards in the third quarter before sitting out the final period.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen was equally impressive, throwing for career highs of 307 yards and four touchdowns on 24-of-32 passing without a pick. Latrell Caples led the Broncos in receiving with 90 yards and three touchdowns on six receptions, while Cameron Camper added 50 yards on four catches.

Though Jeanty has been the star, Boise State’s offensive depth was on full display. Madsen directed a balanced attack that tallied 541 total yards, showing poise in the pocket and using his mobility to extend plays and pick up key gains in the first half.

Key Matchups

While Nevada has shown glimpses of potential on offense, their recent struggles, especially on defense, could spell trouble against a Boise State squad that’s firing on all cylinders.

Lewis has been solid for the Wolf Pack, both as a passer and a rusher, but he’ll need a nearly flawless game to keep Nevada competitive.

Boise State, led by Jeanty’s record-breaking run game and Madsen’s recent surge in the air, looks to bring a balanced, high-powered offense into this matchup.

Brendon Lewis vs. Boise State’s Defense

Lewis has been efficient, completing over 70% of his passes in the last outing and adding critical yardage on the ground. However, Boise State’s defense, known for creating pressure and forcing turnovers, will likely aim to contain his dual-threat abilities.

Lewis’ chemistry with Cortez Braham Jr., who has been a reliable target, could be a key asset if they can connect on explosive plays to keep drives alive. Boise State’s front seven, however, has shown the ability to clamp down on quarterbacks, and Lewis’ ability to escape pressure and limit mistakes will be crucial.

Nevada’s Rushing Defense vs. Ashton Jeanty

Jeanty has been Boise State’s go-to playmaker, breaking records with eight straight 100-yard games. Nevada’s defense has struggled against the run recently, and if they can’t find a way to limit Jeanty, he could easily take over the game.

Boise State’s offensive line has provided him with the space needed to make big plays, and Nevada’s ability to tackle effectively and disrupt Jeanty’s rhythm will be tested. If Jeanty finds his stride, Nevada could find themselves playing from behind early.

Maddux Madsen vs. Nevada’s Secondary

Madsen is coming off a career game with 307 passing yards and four touchdowns, showing poise and precision. With Caples as his main receiving threat, Nevada’s secondary will need to play disciplined, especially in the red zone, where Boise State has excelled.

Madsen’s ability to extend plays and capitalize on open targets will put pressure on Nevada’s defense, and any breakdowns in coverage could be costly.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Nevada’s recent issues with turnovers and special teams miscues—such as the fumbled kickoff against Colorado State—could be a deciding factor if they don’t address them.

Boise State, disciplined on both fronts, may be able to exploit these vulnerabilities. Field position will be crucial for Nevada, and if they can’t maintain ball control, Boise State’s offense could have plenty of short-field opportunities to widen the gap.

The Pick

Nevada may keep it close early on if Lewis and Braham can connect for some key plays and keep the offense on the field. However, Boise State’s balanced attack with Jeanty’s relentless running and Madsen’s recent passing form will likely wear down Nevada’s defense over time.

Boise State’s consistency and depth will prove too much for Nevada, whose defensive struggles and recent turnovers could lead to a decisive second half. That said, this total is a bit high and I don’t trust Nevada to contribute to it much.

College Football Pick: Under 60.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 60.5 (-110)

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