NFL Pick: 2023 New England Patriots Under 7 Wins -120 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Thanks to Bill Belichick’s coaching, the New England Patriots have not bottomed out like many teams do after losing a Hall of Fame quarterback and the core of a Super Bowl-winning team.
The Patriots are a mediocre 25-25 in the regular season since Tom Brady left after the 2019 season, but they are facing their toughest division race yet, with the top sportsbooks offering a line of over/under 7 wins and projecting a last-place finish, something that has not happened to Belichick since he took the job in 2000.
But with the Patriots having the worst quarterback situation in the AFC East instead of the best like they enjoyed for so long, low expectations are what happens to teams like this. Can the Patriots play well enough on defense and get Mac Jones on track to salvage this season, or are they about to get left in the dust in an AFC loaded with better quarterbacks?
The Changes That Matter
If Belichick cannot have McDaniels back, then he is going to settle for the 3rd-best offensive coordinator he’s ever had. The Patriots also drew some darts at skill players, though it is the wide receiver and cornerback position that has plagued Belichick’s general manager status the most in his career, so those additions come under extra scrutiny.
Welcome Back, Bill O’Brien
Another person who may fit that “better coordinator than head coach” mode is Bill O’Brien, who was Belichick’s offensive coordinator during one of the team’s best offensive seasons in 2011. Since then, we have seen O’Brien coach Penn State in college, coach the Houston Texans to some division titles, and he was Alabama’s offensive coordinator the last couple of years.
This is definitely an improvement on Matt Patricia calling plays, and O’Brien can get back to just focusing on offense, his specialty. But he does not have the greatest supporting cast to work with.
Mac Jones and Matt Corral are currently the only quarterbacks on New England’s roster, as they did not bring back Bailey Zappe, who made a couple of starts last year when Jones had a high-ankle sprain.
O’Brien was not at Alabama when Jones was, but there should be some familiarity with how they want to do things with O’Brien’s history of coaching for Belichick and Nick Saban (another Belichick disciple).
New Skill Players
The last time O’Brien was in New England, the Patriots had an impressive 2-tight end offense with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. That is not the case anymore, but Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki (new addition from Miami) are capable of being productive enough to justify a package that features them on the field together.
O’Brien also had a dominant slot receiver in Wes Welker in 2011. The Patriots have been lacking at that position since Julian Edelman retired, and they also let Jakobi Meyers go in the offseason.
The new addition is JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is fresh off a Super Bowl win with the Chiefs as their de facto No. 1 wide receiver. JuJu has solid hands and can make things happen after the catch, but his career has never quite been the same since those early years in Pittsburgh when he could eat up the coverage not paying attention to Antonio Brown.
But it is possible JuJu is the team’s best receiver as DeVante Parker struggles to separate and Kendrick Bourne is still just a WR3 at best. The depth here is not great with Tyquan Thornton, a 2022 2nd-round pick, starting the year on injured reserve, meaning he will miss at least 4 games.
The Patriots lost Damien Harris to the Bills, though now Ezekiel Elliott will back up Rhamondre Stevenson, who hopefully got his worst fumbles out of his system by now.
New Face in the Secondary
Clearly, defense is still going to have to lead the way in New England. One of the leaders there has retired, as Devin McCourty called it a career after 13 seasons in the secondary.
Without getting aggressive on draft night, the Patriots watched Oregon corner Christian Gonzalez slide to them at No. 17. Some thought Gonzalez could have gone in the top 8 picks, so we will see if this proves to be a steal or if he slid for good reason.
While going to the Patriots should be a great opportunity for coaching, the fact is cornerback has been one of the worst positions that the Patriots have drafted high during Belichick’s tenure. The examples since the team hit on McCourty in 2010 – he later moved to safety full-time in 2012 – have especially been poor:
- Joejuan Williams (2nd round, 45th overall in 2019): After starting 1 game for the team since 2019, he was placed on injured reserve for 2022 and just failed to make Minnesota’s final roster for 2023.
- Duke Dawson (2nd round, 56th overall in 2018): Never activated as a rookie and traded away in 2019.
- Cyrus Jones (2nd round, 60th overall in 2016): Played 12 games with 1 start for the Patriots (31 games in his NFL career).
- Ras-I Dowling (2nd round, 33rd overall in 2011): Appeared in just 9 games (2 starts) for the Patriots before they waived him in 2013.
- Darius Butler (2nd round, 41st overall in 2009): Carved out a decent NFL career (15 interceptions in 124 games) but he only lasted 2 seasons with the Patriots (2009-10) before getting waived in 2011.
- Terrence Wheatley (2nd round, 62nd overall in 2008): Played 11 of his 12 career NFL games (1 start) for the Patriots before he was waived in his 3rd season (2010).
Let’s hope using a 1st-round pick on a prospect that was generally liked by scouts will pay off this time. There are some outstanding wide receivers in the division (Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Garrett Wilson) for the Patriots to deal with now that they have quarterbacks who can get them the ball.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The Patriots should be sound enough on defense that enough games will be winnable for them to hit their over or at least get a push. However, the quarterback position is a huge concern after Jones did not look great last year and was already looking like a coddled game manager in his rookie year.
The edge the Patriots used to have in close games is gone now. They were 0-5 at game-winning drive opportunities last year, the only winless team along with Tennessee (0-6). Jones is 1-8 at game-winning drive opportunities in his career.
It has not been all his fault as we are seeing the Patriots commit costly fumbles and miss clutch field goals – things they almost never did during the Brady era. But those household names on defense and reliable kickers that the team used to employ are just not there anymore.
What to Expect This Season
Sweeping the Jets every year since 2016 has been an easy 2 wins in the books for Belichick, but that should not be the case this year, in Week 3 and Week 18, with Aaron Rodgers giving them legitimacy. We also have seen Josh Allen in Buffalo own this New England defense since 2020, and even Tua Tagovailoa has won 4 straight starts against Belichick.
The division has completely flipped around on the Patriots, and that expected bump for the Jets is enough to think this team that might flirt with 8 or 9 wins in a best-case scenario may only get 6 or 7 wins this year. The Patriots also have to play the Chiefs (Week 15), Eagles (Week 1), Cowboys (Week 4), and Chargers (Week 13).
Between the AFC East and that slate, that is 10 games with a significant quarterback disadvantage for the Patriots, unless they are going to luck out and face a bunch of backups again. They also could see improved passers in Russell Wilson (Belichick has a poor record in Denver and they face off in Week 16), Kenny Pickett (Steelers in Week 14), and even Josh McDaniels is 2-0 against Belichick as a head coach. The rematch in Vegas comes in Week 6.
Not only is the under a great NFL pick because of the luxury of a push if they finish 7-10, but if the opposing quarterbacks on this schedule stay healthy, this team could finish no better than 5-12, which would be the most losses Belichick has ever had as a head coach in the NFL.
Bet on the worst New England season since 2000.
NFL Pick: 2023 New England Patriots Under 7 Wins -120 at BetOnline
2022 Recap: The Only Team to Miss Josh McDaniels
Some coaches are simply not cut out for head coaching jobs. The Bill Belichick coaching tree knows this well as Joe Judge and Matt Patricia both rejoined the Patriots after striking out on their own with the Giants and Lions, respectively.
Josh McDaniels had a rough year in Las Vegas last year, but he was one of Belichick’s most trusted assistants as his offensive coordinator for many successful years together. Not only did McDaniels do well with Brady, but he was the one calling plays when Matt Cassel was the starter in 2008 despite not starting a game since high school. McDaniels also helped Mac Jones to a successful rookie year and the playoffs in 2021.
Struggles After McDaniels’ Departure
But with McDaniels off to Vegas to try another head coaching job after he failed in Denver a decade ago, a 70-year-old Belichick made a crucial miscalculation of thinking Patricia was up to the task of calling plays in 2022.
The result was one of Belichick’s worst offensive teams ever as the Patriots finished 26th in yards, 28th in first downs, 27th on 3rd down, and 32nd at scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
Jones regressed in his sophomore season, and he was even caught visibly arguing with the staff during a Thursday night loss against Buffalo where the offense scored 10 points. In that game, Jones averaged a career-low 1.5 completed air yards per pass attempt as the Patriots continued to throw short passes instead of challenging anything downfield.
The offense was fundamentally a failure, and even the running game took a step back, ranking 24th in yards and 21st in yards per carry.
Wild Card Hopes
But thanks to a strong defense that had 30 takeaways (ranked No. 2) and was aided by playing so many lousy backup quarterbacks, the Patriots flirted with a .500 record all season long and remained in the playoff race until Week 18. In 7-of-8 wins last year, the Patriots played a quarterback who was a backup, benched, or was injured in the opening quarter (Kyler Murray in Week 14). The best quarterback the team beat was Detroit’s Jared Goff in an impressive 29-0 shutout.
Despite New England’s own shortcomings at quarterback and offensive coordinator, this team had a shot for a wild card berth again at 7-6. But in back-to-back weeks, the Patriots were rocked by devastating fumbles that you are just not used to seeing this team do.
Playoff Race Woes
In a stunning loss to the Raiders in Week 15, the Patriots were in a tied game that looked headed for overtime. A running play was going to run out the clock, but the Patriots decided to do a lateral, then wide receiver Jakobi Meyers made one of the most unfortunate lateral attempts ever with a terrible pitch back to Mac Jones. The ball went right to Chandler Jones, who raced the final 48 yards for the game-winning touchdown with no time left for the Raiders.
A week later, the dejected Patriots were down 22-0 at home to the Bengals, but the defense started a rally with a pick-six off Joe Burrow. Soon enough, the Patriots were only down 22-18 with a 1st-and-goal at the 5, but Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled with just under a minute left to play. The Patriots lost to fall to 7-8.
There were still playoff scenarios for the Patriots in Week 18, but they had to beat the Bills in Buffalo’s first home game since the Damar Hamlin incident. Good luck there. The Bills returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and scored another kickoff return touchdown after the Patriots had taken a 17-14 lead in the 3rd quarter. Two return scores given up is another thing you would just never expect to see from a Belichick-coached team. He values special teams better than most.
The 8-9 Patriots were not playoff-worthy and were eliminated from contention. Patricia was not retained on the coaching staff this year, though Judge does return in a different capacity. Belichick really missed having McDaniels last year.
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