New Mexico vs. Arizona College Football Week 1 Picks: Don’t Expect a Lot of Offense
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Eduardo Solano
- August 31, 2024
College Football Pick: Under 59 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After a disappointing Week 0 loss, New Mexico faces a tough test when they visit Arizona.
Let’s analyze the current college football odds available at the top sportsbooks and go over all you need to know about this game.
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New Mexico Lobos vs. Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, August 31, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Arizona Stadium
New Mexico Is a Mess
New Mexico suffered a tough loss against Montana State on Saturday, despite holding a commanding 31-14 lead early in the third quarter. Montana State turned the game around by outscoring the Lobos 21-0 in the fourth quarter.
Adam Jones sparked the comeback with a 93-yard sprint, and Scottre Humphrey sealed the deal with a four-yard touchdown run, helping Montana State score twice in the last four minutes to shock New Mexico, 35-31.
The Lobos have shown they’re not a good football team, and while it’s typical for teams to improve from their first to second game, history suggests that teams playing in Week 0 often struggle against the spread in Week 1. This trend could continue as New Mexico faces what is expected to be a high-powered Arizona offense on Saturday.
Arizona Is Loaded With Talent
For Arizona to cover this spread, they’ll need an explosive offensive performance. Despite a complete overhaul of their coaching staff following a rare 10-win season, Arizona retained key players, including the dynamic QB-WR duo of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, one of the best combinations in the nation.
With a solid offensive line and a potent rushing attack, Arizona is poised to light up the scoreboard, even in their first game.
Fifita may not be the biggest quarterback or a dual-threat, but he’s incredibly accurate (he completed 72.4 percent of his passes last season), and he avoids mistakes. Having a top-tier wide receiver like McMillan, who averaged 15.6 yards per catch with 90 receptions for 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns, only enhances his effectiveness.
McMillan is a special talent likely destined for the NFL, and at 6-foot-5, he’s a matchup nightmare for defenses.
Arizona also added depth with Old Dominion transfer Reymello Murphy, a deep threat who averaged 17.9 yards per catch last season, and San Jose State transfer TE Sam Olson, who can stretch the field as well.
The Wildcats’ ground game, already decent, received a boost with the addition of Jacory Croskey-Merritt from New Mexico, along with Quali Conley, who rushed for 842 yards and nine touchdowns on 131 carries in 13 games with San Jose State last year, and Ole Miss transfer Kedrick Reescano, potentially the most talented back in the group.
The Pick
While teams generally improve from their first to their second game, New Mexico’s defense struggled mightily, giving up 567 yards of total offense to an FCS team, which doesn’t bode well against Arizona.
The Wildcats will likely leverage their revamped running back room to dominate the Lobos. Despite not having as strong an offensive line as last year, Arizona still boasts a promising core with right tackle Jonah Savaiinaea, left guard Wendell Moe, and center Josh Baker.
Covering a spread of more than 30 points is a big ask, and after months of anticipation, the Arizona offense might keep things simple before their September 13 road game against No. 18 Kansas State.
Arizona’s talent should allow them to execute a straightforward game plan while taking care of business. They will win this game but “take it easy” on New Mexico so I like the Under.
College Football Pick: Under 59 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
