NFL Pick: 2023 New Orleans Saints Over 9 Wins (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The New Orleans Saints were part of the trio of disappointing NFC South teams who finished 7-10, a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But for 2023, the Saints are the division’s team with the most proven quarterback by bringing in Derek Carr after 9 years with the Raiders.
Carr will reunite with coach Dennis Allen, who was Carr’s coach as a rookie before he was fired after just 4 games in 2014. But these Saints are favored to win the NFC South at many of the top-rated offshore sportsbooks.
The Saints have an over/under 9 wins at BetOnline. With such a favorable 2023 schedule, is this one of the best value bets for your NFL picks this season, or is Carr going to struggle in new surroundings?
The Changes That Matter
The Saints have a new quarterback, and they hope to give him the best situation of his career.
We Know Derek Carr Well by Now
After 9 years with the Raiders, it is hard to imagine we have that much more to learn about Derek Carr as a quarterback. This experiment of bringing him to New Orleans will be all about how good the situation is this season as Carolina is rebuilding, the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost Tom Brady, and the Falcons have a big question mark in Desmond Ridder.
For the first time ever, Carr can say he is the best quarterback in his division now that he no longer shares one with Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, or Patrick Mahomes. That should help.
A Better Carr
But Carr will have to improve on his 63-80 record as a starter, which includes an 0-1 record in the postseason. He is coming off a season under Josh McDaniels that was not among his best, but he also was used as a scapegoat for a team that blew as many 4th-quarter leads (6) as it had won.
Comebacks and Game-Winning Drives
The Raiders losing so many close games last year was tough because Carr had a shot at building on his record number of comebacks and game-winning drives.
This may be hard to believe, but Carr has the most 4th-quarter comeback wins (including playoffs) in a quarterback’s first 9 seasons in NFL history. He leads a list of interesting names.
Most 4th-Quarter Comeback Wins, First 9 Seasons (Playoffs Included)
- Derek Carr – 28
- Russell Wilson – 27
- Matthew Stafford – 26
- Matt Ryan – 25
- Ryan Tannehill – 25
Carr is also tied for 2nd for the most game-winning drives in 9 seasons.
Most Game-Winning Drives, First 9 Seasons (Playoffs Included)
- Russell Wilson – 35
- Matt Ryan – 33
- Derek Carr – 33
- Matthew Stafford – 32
- Peyton Manning – 29
- Ben Roethlisberger – 29
Which Way?
When Matthew Stafford joined the Rams in 2021 without a playoff win in 12 seasons with Detroit, he instantly won the Super Bowl in the best situation of his career. Ryan Tannehill also had his breakout moment in Tennessee after struggling for 7 years in Miami.
But things can go the other way too. Anything is possible now after the way Matt Ryan (Colts) and Russell Wilson (Broncos) bombed with their new teams last year.
Major Outlier
But Carr is a major outlier in NFL history in that he has a better record in games with a comeback/game-winning drive opportunity (34-42, .447) than he does in games without one (29-38, .433).
Last year, the Saints were 2-7 in game-winning drive opportunities, so they could use the help to get over the hump in a couple more close games. Carr can give them that boost over Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston.
The Weapons
Carr just had a season in Las Vegas where he had the rushing champion (Josh Jacobs) and Davante Adams led the NFL in touchdown catches. It is hard to say the Saints can give him the best offense he’s ever played in, but he has talent around him.
Chris Olave did a great job as a rookie wide receiver and could be even better as the No. 1 target this season. While there was skepticism over how good Adams would be with Carr in Vegas, Adams had 8 touchdown catches of 35-plus yards from Carr last year.
Adams had 6 such scoring plays with Aaron Rodgers in 8 seasons together in Green Bay, so that was a big change of playing style from Carr, who is not a great deep passer.
Wouldn’t It Be Nice?
It would be nice if Michael Thomas could finally stay healthy at wide receiver. Since catching 149 passes in 2019, Thomas has 61 catches in the last 3 years while only playing in 12 of a possible 52 games.
Running back Alvin Kamara will be suspended for the first 3 games, but the team should be fine with Jamaal Williams, who had a career year with the Lions last season. When Kamara comes back, that forms a solid duo in the backfield.
The offensive line also has 4 former 1st-round picks, though left tackle Trevor Penning has a lot to prove after only starting 1 game in his rookie season.
Will Derek Carr Finally Have a Defense?
Perhaps the most exciting part for Carr in his move to New Orleans is the hope he will finally have a defense. The Saints finished 10th in both yards and points per drive allowed last season, which would easily be the best defense Carr ever had in the NFL.
On average, Carr’s defense with the Raiders ranked 26.8 in points per drive allowed, by far the worst of his peers. The only bad part about the Saints in 2022 was they had 14 takeaways – only Carr’s Raiders had fewer with 13.
Fluctuations
But defense can fluctuate more wildly than offense from year to year, and positive regression in turnovers is always possible. The Saints also are no guarantee to remain a top-10 defense, though even if they were in the range of 12-to-18, they would still be Carr’s best unit.
This defense should finish above average because they retained some very good players in Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu, and Marshon Lattimore. The Saints also used their 1st-round pick on defensive lineman Bryan Bresee.
The schedule is also going to be very favorable to making this defense look good.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
Do you want a very specific prediction for the Saints? It will be January and we will be making predictions doubting the Saints to advance in the playoffs despite winning the NFC South with double-digit wins.
The main criticism will be “Who did this team beat?” as the schedule should be a godsend to putting this team back in the tournament.
Odds are subject to change, but currently, the Saints have 0 games in the 2023 regular season against the top 10 teams in Super Bowl odds at BetOnline:
- Kansas City Chiefs (+650)
- San Francisco 49ers (+750)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+800)
- Buffalo Bills (+950)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+1000)
- Dallas Cowboys (+1200)
- Baltimore Ravens (+1600)
- New York Jets (+1600)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+2200)
- Miami Dolphins (+2200)
Double-Digits?
This is how a team can luck into a 12 or 13-win season without being great if we are just being honest. The top contenders on the schedule are the Lions (Week 13) and Jaguars (Week 7), teams who were 2-6 to start last year before hot finishes. But those games are also both in New Orleans, and the Jaguars will travel there on a short week (Thursday night).
Take 6 division games against unproven quarterbacks, add the weakest division in the American Conference (AFC South) with a pair of rookie quarterbacks and take away arguably the 10 best opponents in the league, and you are looking at an absolute gift of a schedule.
Over or Under?
This does not mean the Saints won’t have growing pains or inexplicable losses this year. But with the most experienced quarterback and best defense in the division, this should be an easy over and a division title incoming.
Just do not fall for the trap of thinking Carr magically improved as a player from the Raiders. The situation around him is what is improving this year, and this may not last beyond 2023 if the Panthers start clicking with Frank Reich and Bryce Young, or if Ridder is a good one in Atlanta.
But in 2023, it is the Saints’ division to lose again.
NFL Pick: 2023 New Orleans Saints Over 9 Wins (-135) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
On the Last Season of “The Saints”: Southern Mediocrity
The 2022 New Orleans Saints were asking for a tough season when they go from Sean Payton and Drew Brees to Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston in a span of 2 seasons. Winston only lasted 3 turnover-filled starts before Andy Dalton took over as starter for the remainder of the season.
The good news for Allen is that by going 7-10, he almost matched his career wins he had with the Raiders where he was 8-28 (.222). But at no point last season were the Saints a good team. They made a miracle 16-point comeback in the 4th quarter against Atlanta on opening day, needing Marcus Mariota to fumble a snap on a short-yardage play where the Falcons could have put the game away.
Highlight Win
There was a highlight win in a 24-0 shutout against the Raiders, which was not a ringing endorsement for Carr coming to the team this year. That was the 2nd time in Carr’s career he was shut out as a starter.
But just a month later, the Saints were shutout 13-0 against the 49ers. A week later, they blew a 16-3 lead late in the fourth quarter against Tampa Bay, perhaps the most crucial game in the division race last year as the Saints still had a shot at the title if they could get to 5-8. Instead, they blew one final game to Tom Brady and company before going on their first winning streak of the season to get to 7-9.
Meaningless
But in a meaningless Week 18 game, the Saints lost 10-7 to Carolina despite the Panthers completing 5 passes and throwing 2 interceptions in that game. These low-scoring losses were something you never saw in New Orleans when Payton and Brees were there.
The Saints finished top 10 in many defensive categories, which speaks well to Allen’s area of expertise. But the offensive production was lacking and where they missed Payton’s mind the most.
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