NFL Conference Championship Round Swinger’s Best Bets: Eagles Soar on Sunday
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Swinging Johnson
- January 23, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Eagles -6 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Swinger took advantage of some generous lines at the top-rated sportsbooks and wound up with a perfect 3-0 ATS record last week, which now puts him in the black after a full regular season of NFL action and halfway through the postseason. Let’s see what he has for us in the conference championships.
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 30-30-1 ATS (+6.25 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more betting advice on the Commanders vs. Eagles and Bills vs. Chiefs games.
Divisional Round Recap (3-0 ATS, +9.00 units)
If you listen to the sharps, they, like me, will always advise you to shop around for the best numbers. But what they often steer clear of is paying extra vig for a half point you can’t find anywhere else. Not me; if I can get 9.5 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review) like I did with the Texans last week, I’m taking it. Thank God, I did.
In case you didn’t know it, the Texans fell 23-14, and that hook was my ticket to financial freedom. One of my X followers, Bart Salty, wrote, “Paying for the hook on the deadest of all numbers was heaven sent for you! I took the +9 and am just happy this fiasco ended in a draw for me.”
Well, I would beg to differ that nine is a dead number, especially with extra points being routinely missed. However, I will confess it’s not nearly as lively as 3, 6, or 7 in terms of being magical numbers.
Anyway, the Texans +9 ½ brought back three units, but it was an early line that made all the difference in the world in the Philly game. You must understand, I write this column on Wednesday night, sometimes Thursday morning if I was drinking the night before. I’m kidding…No, I’m not kidding.
The Eagles -5.5 (-121) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) was available on Wednesday night, and the extra juice proved to be another godsend. The Eagles beat the Rams 28-22, but it shouldn’t have been that close. In the fourth quarter, with a sizeable lead, Philly went into the prevent defense that prevents teams from winning (or covering) and emerged with a 28-22 win instead of what should have been a 28-15 win. That was a 4-unit winner for me and anyone else who got Philadelphia -5.5.
Lastly, the Bills brought home the bacon as they defeated the Ravens 27-25, which was good for 2 units on the moneyline.
All in all, we swept the board and put 9 units in our pockets. We are now back in the black and looking for more. Let’s go!
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 26, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
The public loves the Commanders, and why wouldn’t they? Washington upset the mighty Lions while the Eagles tripped all over themselves in their victory over the Rams. I guess I should feel lucky as I am leaning on the Eagles in this one, and it’s always comforting to be on the opposite side of Joe Q. Public.
However, the oddsmakers have such a profound respect for the sheeple that this line has risen from -4.5 to -6 in only a few days.
That smells like sharp action on the favorite to me, and I can see why. Jayden Daniels makes this offense work because he is always a threat to run. But that will be an issue because the Eagles own an impressive run-stop unit, which could turn JD into a one-dimensional quarterback.
Daniels had a tremendous game in their last meeting when the Eagles mailed it in after entering the fourth quarter with a 27-13 lead before slip slidin’ away to a 36-33 loss in DC. But that was a game they didn’t really need, and it was also in hostile territory. This game will be in Philly, the City of Brotherly Love, an oxymoron if there ever was one, and the Eagles will be completely focused on getting the job done.
The last time they met at the Linc, Saquon Barkley beat that Commanders’ defense like a red-headed stepchild, rambling for 146 yards and two trips into the endzone. I believe this game will see the Eagles soar to a double-digit victory.
NFL Pick: Eagles -6 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 26, 2025- 06:30 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
Last week I waxed prosaic on the Chiefs being the best “average” team in the history of the league. Notice the quotes; we all know the Chiefs are not an average team per se, but they just don’t do anything statistically that puts them at the top of the pack in any one category. Except, of course, win.
Let’s recap, shall we?
The Chiefs had a middling offense this year, averaging just 22.6 points per game (15th), the 22nd-ranked rushing attack (105.3 RYG), and the 14th-ranked passing attack (222.4 PYG).
Defensively, the Chiefs were at their best, surrendering just 19.2 PPG (4th), but when we look at their pass and run defenses, it’s all sort of meh. The Chiefs’ run defense is stout, surrendering 101.8 rushing yards per contest, which ranks them 8th, but their pass defense allows 218.8 passing yards per game, which places them 18th in that category.
Does this strike you as a juggernaut? Look, I get it; the name of the game is to win, and they have done that quite seamlessly this year. But eventually, something’s got to give, and right now there’s an existential force coming from Buffalo that’s going to ruin their season.
Teams that win the turnover margin are 7-0 straight up in the playoffs. The Bills have a +6 turnover differential in the postseason, while the Chiefs were even in their one game against Houston. However, I see the Bills forcing turnovers and exploiting the Chiefs’ weaknesses. The Bills have won 3 of the last 4 games against the Chiefs, including a 30-21 win in Buffalo this season.
I’m expecting the Bills to win this one outright, but I’ll take the small head start the books are giving me.
NFL Pick: Bills +2 (-110) for 3 units at BetOnline
The Woodman’s Corner (6-13-1 ATS)
The Woodman and I backed the same pony last week, and he, like me, laid the extra 15 cents to get the Texans +9 .5 and came away with an ATS cover instead of a push-a-ria (that’s what my Italian friends call a push).
This week, great minds are once again thinking alike as we are both backing the Buffalo Bills, getting 2 points as they make their way to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. As always, Woodman says, “Bet the farm!”
Woodman’s Pick: Bills +2 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
