Top NFL Pick: Lions -6 ½ (-110) for 5 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Swinger nailed his second consecutive 3-0 ATS week. He is now looking to keep the good times rolling as he sails into the divisional round with a MAX PLAY on the docket.
Let’s check out what Swinger has cookin’ this weekend and keep cashing on those NFL odds at our main offshore sportsbooks!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 29-28-1 ATS (-8.84 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Wild Card Round Recap
I guess it took me an entire season to start seeing things clearly. Had I known that, I would have made my eye appointment in September.
You may recall we swept the board with a perfect 3-0 ATS week in the final week of the regular season. We also had a little swagger in our step as we entered wild card weekend. Well, they say confidence is sexy, and right now, I’m a hunka-hunka burnin’ love after another 3-0 ATS week.
We struck gold with the Packers (3 units), Bills (4 units), and my 5-unit MAX PLAY on the LA Rams. That was good for a total of 12 units. Also, we are now officially over the .500 mark but just barely.
The bad news is that we are still stuck for nearly 9 units to the man. However, we’ve got time to get that dough-re-mi back in our pockets. Let’s check out the matchups in the divisional round and see if we can keep this party train on track!
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 21, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Key Stats
- Tampa Bay is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against Detroit.
- Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Detroit is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home.
Analysis
This Cinderella from Tampa Bay will soon find out it’s midnight after the smoke clears in the Motor City this Sunday.
Last week they had the good fortune of playing against an Eagles team that had been imploding in the latter part of the season and the Bucs came away with a dominating 32-9 decision.
But now they face a ravenous Lions team that had their hands full last week against the surging LA Rams.
If you recall, the Rams were a 5-unit maximum play for me last week and they eked out a cover as three-point road dogs in a narrow 24-23 loss. But I’m switching sides because if the Lions can beat the Rams, they are going to wallop the Bucs.
Offensive Blueprint
Seriously, do you trust Baker Mayfield? I’d trust him to watch my drink at the bar as he seems like the kind of guy I’d like to party with, but he’s a mercurial quarterback, to say the least, and when the Lions bring the heat, Baker will be cooked – did you see what I did there?
The Bucs have one chance to hang and bang with the Cats, the deep ball to Mike Evans and, to a lesser extent, Chris Godwin. But Evans is missing something this year and Godwin is good but not elite. Besides, how is Mayfield going to get them the ball when he’s on his back looking up at Adian Hutchinson?
Jared Goff is becoming a very good quarterback in the league and although he’s not elite, he’s better than the proverbial game-managing QB. Tight end Sam LaPorta will be healthier for this game and he will be a huge weapon for Goff, as will Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot.
Here are a few stats to hang your hat on in this one:
- Lions No. 3 in passing yards against Bucs No. 28 in pass defense
- Bucs No. 32 in rushing yards against Lions No. 2 against the run.
Therefore, it’s all on Mayfield because Tampa Bay will not be able to run on Detroit. The more Mayfield has to do the more he’ll get sacked, turn the ball over, and toss interceptions. That’s how the Lions win the game and cover the number. MAX PLAY on Detroit!
NFL Pick: Lions -6 ½ (-110) for 5 units at BetOnline
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Key Stats
- Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Houston is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
- Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Saturday.
Analysis
The Texans are in a groove and made mincemeat of the Browns last week in a 45-14 rout in front of the fan friendlies. Make no doubt, this is the C.J. Stroud era in Houston and he’s gotten better and better as the season has progressed. The rookie had no problem with the Cleveland pass rush. Tossed for three touchdowns and 274 yards while the defense sacked Joe Flacco on four occasions and had not one, but two pick-sixes.
The Ravens have had the luxury of a bye week to lick their wounds. Although something is telling me that their inactivity will not bode well against this slowly evolving Texas juggernaut.
The point spread is simply too high. However, I don’t discount Lamar Jackson’s ability to turn and run when his pass-catching options disappear.
Tactical Approach
As you can plainly see by my rather meager unit size (no jokes, please), I’m not in love with this matchup.
I do believe we are getting a few points north of what we should be getting due to what the oddsmakers believe will be an onslaught of public action on the chalky home team.
Let’s grab the points and watch the Texans run the clock with Devin Singletary exploiting a middling Ravens’ run-stop unit, ranked 14th, allowing 109.4 yards per game. This should allow Houston to keep this one within the margins.
NFL Pick: Texans +9 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 20, 2024 – 8:15 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Key Stats
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 8 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games.
Analysis
Last week, I correctly pointed out that Jordan Love’s impressive play over the last three games – now four games after a 48-32 thrashing of the Cowboys in which Love tossed for 3 touchdowns and 272 yards bringing his four-game total to 10 touchdowns, no picks, on a 75% completion percentage – is directly congruent to running back Aaron Jones’ health. He has absolutely torn it up since he has healed. Aaron’s been amassing 111, 120, 127, and 118 yards with a 5.7 yards per carry average over the last four contests.
And if you put a gun to my head, I would tell you I have a slight lean on the Packers plus the 9 ½ points they’re getting. But let’s face it: the Niners are a wagon this year. They have had two weeks to prepare with Christian McCaffrey. He is poised to have a huge game on Saturday against the Packers’ 28th-ranked run defense, surrendering over 128 rushing yards per game.
Therefore, I am switching gears and going over the posted total.
If Love and company are on point and keep doing what they’ve done down the home stretch of the season, then they’ll score 20+ points while San Francisco will score even more.
The total is high at 50 ½, but then again, people said I was too when I advised a play on the Packers last week against Dallas.
Go over my children, and cash a ticket.
NFL Pick: Over 50 ½ (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (8-11 ATS)
The Woodman is in a bit of a tailspin recently, having lost with the Ravens in the regular-season finale before watching the Steelers melt under the pressure of a one-man wrecking crew named Josh Allen last week.
However, all is not lost as he has now taken all the livestock on the farm he used to own and is putting them up as collateral for a shot at redemption with the Green Bay Packers, plus a boatload of points against the powerhouse 49ers.
As he’s fond of saying, Bet The Farm!
Woodman’s Pick: Packers +10 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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