NFL Divisional Round Swinger’s Best Bets: Eagles Poised to Pounce on Rams
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Swinging Johnson
- January 16, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Eagles -5.5 (-121) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Swinger cashed his best bet last week when the Bills waxed the Broncos but now, he’s coming back with three more of his top plays for the divisional round of the 2025 NFL playoffs. Let’s find out what he’s got for us!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 27-30-1 ATS (-2.75 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
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Wild Card Round Recap (1-3 ATS, -3.85 units)
Last week I almost made the Bills a max bet wager, but then I began to doubt myself. What kind of a sharpshooter lays 8½ points in a playoff game? Well, I decided that even square bets win, and the sharps aren’t always right. But that lingering doubt had me hold the line at 4 units on the Bills without jeopardizing my 3-0 ATS mark in my 5-unit max wagers this season.
Anyway, the Bills blew out the Broncos, and that was 4 units to the good. Unfortunately, that’s as good as it got last week. I lost 4 units on the Steelers +10 to the Ravens, 2 units on the Bucs -3 as they lost outright to the Commanders, and then I had over the posted total of 49½ in that game for 1 unit that also went south in Washington’s 23-20.
We are now underwater for 2.75 units on the season, but this too shall pass. Let’s get back on our horse and ride to victory this weekend! Giddy up!
I can’t get it out of my head that this Chiefs edition is just not made of championship timber. I’ve been chanting this mantra all season, and all they did was win 15 of 17 games and lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But still, something’s missing.
This is a club that doesn’t blow the opposition out and ended the regular season with an 8-9 ATS mark. They have a middling offense this year, averaging just 22.6 points per game, the 22nd-ranked rushing attack (105.3 RYG), and the 14th-ranked passing attack (222.4 PYG).
Defensively, the Chiefs have done a fine job of keeping teams off the scoreboard, surrendering just 19.2 PPG (4th), but when we look at their pass and run defenses, it’s all sort of meh. The Chiefs’ run defense is stout, surrendering 101.8 rushing yards per contest, which ranks them 8th, but their pass defense allows 218.8 passing yards per game, which places them 18th in that category.
Look, the Chiefs just don’t blow teams out, and they’ve only won four games by 10 points or more. And here’s one last intriguing stat. If all the Chiefs’ one-score games were reversed, they would have wound up with a 5-12 straight-up mark.
The Texans may not be ready for the Super Bowl quite yet, but I can see them hanging and banging with this overrated Chiefs squad. Let’s grab the generous line at Bookmaker and cash a ticket!
NFL Pick: Texans +9.5 (-125) at Bookmaker for 3 units (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 19, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Some people believed the Rams would not be completely focused on the Vikings last week due to the wildfires ravaging the LA area. But quite the opposite was true, as the game was relocated to the home of the Arizona Cardinals, State Farm Stadium. But the trip to the desert was exactly what the Rams needed to get away from the chaos at home as they notched a 27-9 win over the Vikings.
But I think that was their Super Bowl. I don’t believe they’ll have anything left when they meet a true championship-caliber team like Philadelphia. The City of Brotherly Love is a tough place to play, but this season’s Eagles edition makes playing them a nightmare regardless of the venue.
Jalen Hurts only tossed for 131 yards last week, but he did throw a pair of touchdowns and looked perfectly fine after rehabbing from a concussion over the last several weeks. I suspect he’ll look even better on Sunday and will get plenty of time in the pocket. And the reason for that is because Saquon Barkley will be a marked man after he tore through the Rams’ defense in their November 24th matchup when he ran for two touchdowns and 255 yards in Philadelphia’s 37-20 victory.
The Rams will be hyper-focused on the Eagles’ rushing attack, and Barkley in particular, which will allow Hurts to be able to have a cup of coffee in the pocket while leisurely perusing his aerial options. Look, I’m a Matthew Stafford fan, and I like the Rams, but it’s the Eagles that will soar on Sunday afternoon.
NFL Pick: Eagles -5.5 (-121) at BetOnline for 4 units
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 19, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Who’s your MVP, Lamar or Josh? Well, the former has a slight edge in stats, but the latter did more with less. The Bills don’t have a Derrick Henry, but, to be fair, James Cook has had an impressive season in his own right with 16 rushing touchdowns.
Nevertheless, this should be one hell of a game and one that you’d want to watch even if you didn’t have any action on it. Who am I kidding? I Of course, I’ll have action! And in this case, I am siding with the hometown Bills. I believe this is Josh Allen’s year to shine, and if he can get the Bills through the Ravens, Buffalo will be your Super Bowl favorite going forward.
The Ravens defensive secondary has not been tested in a while after facing a series of middling quarterbacks. But that is all going to change on Sunday. I suspect Josh Allen will strafe those corners and safeties, which will pay huge dividends early in the game.
Derrick Henry is a force of nature, but the Bills have an excellent run-stop unit, especially since the return of their All-Pro linebacker, Matt Milano, from injury. If Henry fails to move the chains, Lamar Jackson will have to go to the air, but he may be without his top target, Zay Flowers, who is suffering from a knee injury.
I’m backing the Bills as the third of my three NFL picks this week, but I have too much respect for the Ravens to go too heavy, but I will eschew the +1 and the vig for getting even money on the money line.
NFL Pick: Bills ML (+100) at Bovada for 2 units (visit our Bovada Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (5-13-1 ATS)
Woodman’s season of misery continued last week as he and I had a stark difference of opinion on the Bills/Broncos tilt. I heartily endorsed Buffalo while Woodman was convinced Denver was his ticket to financial freedom.
The Broncos showed promise early but eventually succumbed to the dynamic Josh Allen and the Bills offense as Buffalo advanced to this week’s divisional round, courtesy of a 31-7 thrashing of Denver.
This week we happen to be on the same side as he likes the Texans plus a boatload of points against the Chiefs, and so do I. Good luck to the Woodman, and as he’s fond of saying, Bet the Farm!
Woodman’s Pick: Texans +9.5 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
