NFL Futures – After the 2025 Draft: Rookie Props for Ward, Loveland & Shedeur
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Scott Kacsmar
- April 29, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Cam Ward – 3250+ Passing Yards (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The dust has settled on the 2025 NFL Draft, but that doesn’t mean you can’t already bet on who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft. Texas quarterback Arch Manning is the current favorite (+200 at Bovada), but we’ll let that market slide for now.
Instead, let’s look at some of the best values for rookie prop betting markets for the 2025 NFL season. It was a fun draft that saw one quarterback (Shedeur Sanders) suffer a huge drop to the 5th round, and that somehow overshadowed how confident the Titans were in making Cam Ward the No. 1 overall pick. We also got a surprise when Colston Loveland was the 1st tight end drafted.
We have a prop pick for each of the rookies with odds from Bovada.
Cam Ward – Rookie Passing Yards
At Bovada, you can find odds for how many passing yards rookie quarterback Cam Ward will throw for in the regular season as he takes over as the starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans:
| How Many Passing Yards | Odds | Offered by |
|---|---|---|
| 2750+ Passing Yards | -500 | |
| 3000+ Passing Yards | -150 | |
| 3250+ Passing Yards | +100 | |
| 3500+ Passing Yards | +200 | |
| 3750+ Passing Yards | +350 | |
| 4000+ Passing Yards | +600 | |
| 4250+ Passing Yards | +1200 | |
| 4500+ Passing Yards | +1800 |
To estimate the best pick for this, we will consider Ward’s readiness to become a volume passer in the NFL, the willingness of the Titans to throw more under coach Brian Callahan, and the historical success rate of rookies.
Going back to 2020 with Incarnate Word, Cam Ward has been a prolific passer everywhere he’s gone. He threw for 3,232 and 3,736 yards in his 2 seasons at Washington State in the Pac-12, and he threw for 4,313 yards last year in Miami, where he had 10 300-yard passing games. He has dual-threat capability, but he’s known better for putting the ball in the air.
Historically, quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall are usually given a green light to throw and throw often. That may not always be the case as rookies, but it’s a role they grow into as Drew Bledsoe, Eli Manning, and Matthew Stafford can attest.
Beyond that, of the top 15 quarterbacks in pass attempts as rookies, 9 of them were No. 1 overall picks, including Caleb Williams (562 in 2024) and Bryce Young (527 in 2023) in the last 2 seasons.
Ward Won’t Break Records
When it comes to the Titans, Brian Callahan had a pass-happy offense with Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, but things were dialed back last year with the unsavory duo of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph starting for his offense. The duo combined to throw for just over 3,600 yards.
Calvin Ridley was the only player to crack 500 receiving yards on the 2023 Titans, and they have since added Tyler Lockett (reliable) and Van Jefferson (some deep ball potential) to the mix.
While Levis was a struggling mess, Mason Rudolph averaged 229.2 passing yards per game in 6 games (5 starts) where he attempted at least 25 passes. That’s a 17-game pace of 3,896 yards.
When Joe Burrow was injured in 2023 in Cincinnati, Callahan’s offense turned to undrafted free agent Jake Browning, who averaged 266.9 passing yards per game in 7 starts, a 17-game pace of 4,537 yards. Granted, the Titans don’t have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at wide receiver, but Callahan’s preference is passing.
The NFL’s rookie passing record is still 4,374 yards by Andrew Luck in 2012. We can acknowledge without top-tier weapons that Ward likely isn’t setting any rookie records, and he should have more rushing yards than your average quarterback.
Health Is the Only Hurdle
But even then, throwing for 3,750 yards (+350 odds at Bovada) wouldn’t be out of the question in a 17-game season if he stays healthy. Just last year, rookie Bo Nix had 3,775 yards in Denver. Even Carson Wentz (3,782 yards in 2016) and Mac Jones (3,801 yards in 2021) have done this in the last decade.
Gardner Minshew only started 12 games as a 6th-round pick for the 2019 Jaguars, and he still passed for 3,271 yards. So, going for 3,250 yards at even odds looks like the best value right now. But if you wanted to tease this up to 3500+ yards (+200) or even 3750+ yards (+350), that would be worthwhile too for your NFL futures bets on this season.
It’s mostly just a matter of staying healthy and playing as many games as possible, because Ward is going to have the ball with a lot of opportunities to throw on a team that’s likely going to trail a fair share in games after a 3-14 season.
NFL Pick: Cam Ward – 3250+ Passing Yards (+100) at Bovada
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Colston Loveland – Rookie Receiving Touchdowns
It was not a surprise that the Chicago Bears used the No. 10 pick on a tight end in the 2025 draft. But it was surprising to see Michigan’s Colston Loveland go off the board before Penn State’s Tyler Warren, who most considered the best tight end in the draft, and someone who had about -400 odds at top-rated sportsbooks to be the 1st tight end drafted.
But with Loveland in Chicago at a position they arguably didn’t need with Cole Kmet still there with years remaining on his contract, it’s up to rookie coach Ben Johnson to make the most of this pick this year.
Johnson had Sam LaPorta as his tight end in Detroit, and he made an immediate impact in 2023 as a rookie when he had 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. It’s hard to expect those numbers from Loveland given the Kmet factor, and the Bears are unlikely to throw the ball as well with Caleb Williams in Year 2 as an experienced Jared Goff did for Detroit.
But something that really stands out here is the possibility of Johnson scheming up touchdowns in the red zone for his tight end, something he did well in Detroit with LaPorta and company.
Touchdowns Up for Grabs
Last year, Williams threw 20 touchdowns as a rookie behind a bad line that has been improved in free agency. But he’s lost Keenan Allen, who led the Bears with 7 touchdown catches. They also don’t have a dominant running back who will steal a lot of those scores like David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs shared in Detroit.
That’s why it feels like a good value to take a minimum of 5 touchdown catches from Loveland as a rookie for his prop bets this season. They still have D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, but Loveland caught 5 of Michigan’s 12 touchdown passes last season to lead the Wolverines.
Look for him to do that again for a much better pro offense with Johnson helping out Williams and all involved to a superior 2025 season.
NFL Pick: Colston Loveland – 5+ Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
Shedeur Sanders – How Many Rookie Starts?
Finally, we couldn’t resist the low-hanging fruit with Shedeur Sanders after the Colorado quarterback fell from the 1st round all the way to Cleveland in the 5th round with the 144th pick.
The attention over this hasn’t stopped sportsbooks from offering special props on him, and the one that stands out as very playable is betting the over/under on how many starts Sanders will make in the 2025 NFL season (odds via Bovada):
- Over 11.5 starts (+210)
- Under 11.5 starts (-320)
Technically, it does not mention if the starts are for the Cleveland Browns, so if he were to get traded and start elsewhere, those games would count for him just the same. With that in mind, let’s assume the Browns keep him as one of the 5 quarterbacks they currently have.
Let’s also assume the Browns put Deshaun Watson (Achilles) on injured reserve to rehab that major injury for another season. Let’s assume the Browns dump Kenny Pickett somewhere after realizing they no longer need him after trading for him from Philadelphia before the draft.
That leaves Sanders with 40-year-old Joe Flacco and fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel, the Oregon starter the Browns shockingly drafted 94th overall in the 3rd round a full 50 picks before they added Sanders on Saturday.
In this scenario, you could see the veteran Flacco start the season as he was a success under coach Kevin Stefanski, helping the team to the playoffs in 2023. But at 40, Flacco may not have much left in the tank and could be pulled by October.
With the rookies, it should be about who performs the best in the preseason and practices for who gets the higher spot on the depth chart. It shouldn’t be as simple as draft value with Gabriel getting the nod for going 2 rounds higher than Sanders.
History Says Fifth-Round QBs Don’t Start
So, let’s say Sanders is humbled by this experience and puts on one heck of a training camp and preseason to earn the No. 2 quarterback job. Then, if Flacco falters early, he can take over and maybe keep the job for the rest of the season, hitting just over 11.5 starts to defy the odds on the market.
That’s the most logical, reasonable path to the over hitting. However, let’s face the reality of the situation. The Browns still owe Watson a lot of money and realistically could play him at some point this season just to see if there’s any ROI at all on that awful trade they made in 2022.
There’s also the fact that Flacco could still be really good in Stefanski’s offense again as he was in 2023, and he keeps the job too long for this bet to be possible to go over. Maybe Pickett and Gabriel outperform Sanders too, relegating him to the bench all year.
There’s also the simple fact that the 5th round is literally the worst place to try finding a quarterback to start in the salary cap era. The last decent starter drafted in the NFL’s 5th round was Mark Brunell way back in 1993.
The history of that round has been pathetic as these are the only 5th-round quarterbacks drafted after 1994 to throw at least 360 passes in the NFL (career attempts in parentheses):
- J. Feeley (762)
- Sam Howell (645)
- John Skelton (602)
- Mike McMahon (515)
- Dan Orlovsky (512)
Just a brutal list. Teams have waited to find better gems in the 6th (Tom Brady, Tyrod Taylor, Gardner Minshew) and 7th (Brock Purdy, Ryan Fitzpatrick) rounds. In fact, Minshew is the only quarterback in NFL history drafted after the 4th round who started over 11.5 games in his rookie season when he made 12 starts in 2019 (aided by injury to starter).
At the rate Cleveland is going, they’ll trade for Kirk Cousins as they can’t get enough quarterbacks in that room apparently. But this is an under worth playing as it shouldn’t be much of a sweat like Sanders waiting for a team to draft him was a sweat.
NFL Pick: Shedeur Sanders Under 11.5 Starts in 2025 (-320) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
