Editor’s note: This article is updated weekly as the NFL Playoffs unfold.
*All future odds are courtesy of BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) as of 1/29/24.
The stage is set for Super Bowl 58. It will be a rematch from 4 years ago between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
When those teams met in Super Bowl 54, it was one of the tightest spreads in Super Bowl history. The Chiefs were a 1.5-point favorite. They rallied from a 20-10 deficit to win 31-20 behind Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes is back in his 4th Super Bowl with the Chiefs. If the early line movement is any indication, this will be a very small spread again. The 49ers opened as a 2.5-point favorite Sunday night. It has already moved down to the 49ers as a 1-point favorite at many top-rated sportsbooks. It could very well settle in that 1.5-point range for either team at this point as people begin making their bets for this anticipated matchup.
As the final 2 teams left, we make our early gut NFL pick for which team will win Super Bowl 58.
San Francisco 49ers (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS)
NFC West Winner and No. 1 Seed (-117 to win Super Bowl)
Wild Card Opponent: 1st-round bye
Divisional Round Opponent: 49ers 24, Packers 21
Conference Championship Opponent: 49ers 34, Lions 31
Super Bowl Opponent: 49ers -1 vs. Chiefs (-110)
The 49ers have a lot of big-game experience with several players who were on the roster that lost to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54, including Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Arik Armstead, Kyle Juszczyk, Fred Warner, and Dre Greenlaw.
Many of those players have only gotten better since then. The team has upgraded at running back with Christian McCaffrey, who is looking to become the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998 for the Denver Broncos. McCaffrey has scored 4 touchdowns this postseason.
But the biggest change is at quarterback with the way Brock Purdy has replaced Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers had their best offense this year under coach Kyle Shanahan as Purdy helped the 49ers average the most yards per pass attempt of any offense since the 2004 Colts.
But in the playoffs, Purdy and the 49ers have had to overcome a lot of adversity that they did not face often in the regular season when they won 11 games by at least 12 points, tied for the 2nd-most such wins in a season in NFL history.
Playoff Resilience
The 49ers had to come back from a 7-point deficit late in the divisional round win against Green Bay. The 49ers then were down 24-7 at halftime of the NFC Championship Game against Detroit before rallying to win 34-31, tied for the largest comeback in NFC Championship Game history.
Purdy has led a game-winning drive in each of the last 3 playoff games he has finished as a starter. His only playoff loss was in Philadelphia in last year’s title game after his elbow was injured on the opening drive.
But Purdy has lived a charmed life so far.
One of his biggest plays in Sunday’s win over Detroit was a dropped interception. It was caught on the ricochet by Brandon Aiyuk for 51 yards, the longest play in the game for the 49ers. Purdy’s playing style can be hectic like that, but he usually makes it work for Shanahan’s system.
Purdy is also more mobile than Garoppolo ever was. His legs were huge on scrambles to help the 49ers sneak past the Lions. You also can see that Shanahan seems to trust Purdy more. This allows him to throw more passes downfield and take advantage of his better reads on those throws.
Offensive Demand
The offense is going to have to be stellar.
It will be facing the best Kansas City defense the Chiefs have had in the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 27 points all season. 27 has also been the minimum number of points scored by the 49ers in 13 of their 14 wins this year.
You also never know how a young quarterback is going to do in their first Super Bowl start. All eyes will be on Purdy as he goes up against an elite defense and tries to keep pace with the best quarterback in the game today in Mahomes.
Kansas City Chiefs (13-6 SU, 11-7-1 ATS)
AFC West Winner and No. 3 Seed (-103 to win Super Bowl)
Wild Card Opponent: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 7
Divisional Round Opponent: Chiefs 27, Bills 24
Conference Championship Opponent: Chiefs 17, Ravens 10
Super Bowl Opponent: Chiefs +1 vs. 49ers (-103)
Repeating as a Super Bowl champion is one of the hardest things to do.
That is why no one has done it since the 2003-04 Patriots. This is the longest drought in NFL history without anyone winning back-to-back championships.
Navigating Obstacles
Many times, the team is stronger in the 2nd year when they repeat. But the Chiefs had to do things the hard way this season. Some of that was self-inflicted with the decisions they made in the offseason:
- They let JuJu Smith-Schuster go as their No. 1 wide receiver.
- They let offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy go to Washington.
- They had to work in new offensive tackles in veterans Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor.
The wide receivers were a huge problem throughout the year. They had too many mistakes in critical spots that cost the Chiefs wins. Kadarius Toney either couldn’t catch or couldn’t line up offsides properly. Marques Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore regressed in their 2nd season with the team instead of showing any improvement.
To make matters worse, superstar tight end Travis Kelce was injured and missed Week 1. Then he was injured in Minnesota shortly after the world discovered he was in a relationship with the most popular woman at the moment, Taylor Swift. Kelce turned 34 and was starting to look that age, which is practically ancient for a tight end.
But around Week 12, the Chiefs finally started showing confidence in rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, who took over as the new No. 1 wide receiver. They started to utilize Rice, Kelce, and running back Isiah Pacheco more instead of trying to get a number of touches for a wide variety of players each week.
But the offense still didn’t really click until a comeback win over the Bengals in Week 17 when Mahomes hit some deep balls. Key starters rested in Week 18, and the team came out fresh in the wild card win over Miami. This was a game for the defense to show off in the extreme cold. However, Mahomes and the offense played a clean game in a 26-7 win.
Postseason Elevations
The losses early in the year produced a No. 3 seed, meaning the team would have to travel to Buffalo for the AFC divisional round. This was Mahomes’ first true road playoff game in his career. But playing on the road has never been a big deal for him. In fact, he has his best statistics away from home.
Mahomes led an efficient, big-play attack in Buffalo. The defense stopped Josh Allen late in the game before the Bills missed a game-tying field goal in a 27-24 victory. That set up the Chiefs in Baltimore for the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes again came out very sharp with back-to-back touchdown drives before relying on the defense to put things away with turnovers in the 4th quarter.
But Mahomes got the last dagger when he threw a deep ball to Valdes-Scantling and he held on for the game-clinching 1st down. In the regular season, that probably would have been a drop. However, in the playoffs, the Chiefs have stepped up their game and have shown their championship experience.
Unpredictable Dynamics
Now the Chiefs get a San Francisco team that is as talented as any roster in the league. But these teams met last year in San Francisco. Mahomes threw for 423 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 44-23 win. Brock Purdy came off the bench late in that game and threw his first NFL interception.
With the best defense of his career on his side, Mahomes has a chance to win his 3rd Super Bowl before his 29th birthday. He also can win his 15th playoff game in Super Bowl 58. This would allow him to stand alone for the 3rd-most playoff wins in NFL history.
This San Francisco defense is not as dominant as the one Mahomes had to come back to beat in Super Bowl 54. But the talent of the 49ers makes it unlikely that even a team with Mahomes, Kelce, and an elite defense will be a big favorite in this Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl Pick
It would not be surprising to see the Chiefs settle as a 1-point or 1.5-point favorite by kickoff on Super Bowl Sunday. But being an underdog is something they are obviously content with as well.
Just from a matchup standpoint, it feels like the Chiefs come in a bit more prepared to win a game like this than they did 4 years ago when the 49ers clearly had the better defense and also had a very talented offense under Shanahan. They needed Mahomes to deliver something stellar, and he did, saving the game on a 3rd-and-15 with a 44-yard completion to Tyreek Hill.
But now that Mahomes has so much big-game experience and success, and the way the Kansas City defense can pressure the quarterback and cover wide receivers, it could be a big day for the Chiefs if they rattle young Purdy while continuing to protect the ball on offense like they have in the postseason.
Reid with a bye week is usually a safe bet, and at this point, how can you go against Mahomes and Kelce indoors after playing in the extreme cold and wet conditions all January? Expect a spectacle that goes over the 47.5 total, and the Chiefs end the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion by winning another Super Bowl.
Early Super Bowl 58 Score Prediction: Chiefs 30 – 49ers 27
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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