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The NFL is the most popular sport in this country. Betting on NFL regular season games is a must because it’s the best way to maximize the fun. If you’re watching games in which your favorite team isn’t playing, then you might not be interested. Likewise, if you’re watching a game that isn’t particularly close, you might lose interest. By betting on games, they become more fun because, even if your team isn’t playing, they’ll still interest you because your money is at stake. Likewise, even if the game isn’t close, the spread or total might still be in play.
There are a variety of ways to go about betting on regular season games. You can bet on the spread and total. You can bet on various game and player props, such as, respectively, a team’s point total or a player’s total yardage. You can also bet on games, at adjusted odds, after they’ve begun. There are so many ways to involve yourself in the action at the top sportsbooks so that you have more entertainment – and, importantly, more money.
Pick’em Pool Contest
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Divisional Odds
When betting on division winners, the best strategy revolves around the concept of value. You have to recognize that so many things can go wrong for a favored team. Injuries can happen on any given play. Even when players are healthy, they might underperform. You don’t know what they’ve been doing in the offseason. You don’t know whether opposing coaches have figured out certain players. All of these potential factors support my suggestion: do not lay any chalk on any team to win the division. An example is the Chiefs at -250 to win the AFC West: this is a ridiculous price.
It’s not just that, for example, Patrick Mahomes might get injured. It’s the fact that the NFL is a parity league. The Jaguars, for example, recently went from going 3-14 in one season to winning their division and winning a playoff game in the next season. This turnaround compels us to try to think hard about the levels of talent that underdogs have in their roster. Looking back at the AFC West, for example, the Chargers are known to have a talented roster. Now that they finally have a competent head coach, they could give the Chiefs a run for their money.
Coaching changes are something that bettors should consider very carefully. As we saw with the Jaguars’ turnaround, a competent head coach can make a tremendous difference. Another strategy, besides looking for underdogs and appreciating the significance of coaching changes, is to favor teams with depth – because injuries do happen.
Besides the Chiefs at -250 to win the AFC West, the other divisional favorites in the AFC are the Bills to win the AFC East at +160, the Ravens to win the AFC North at +140, the Texans to win the AFC South at -115. For the NFC, the Eagles are favored to win the NFC East at -110, the Lions to win the AFC North at +130, the Falcons to win the AFC South at -115, and the 49ers to win the AFC West at -210.
Conference Odds
When deciding who will win the AFC and who will win the NFC, the key is to resist the temptation to bet on who you think is the best overall team. The fact is that the best overall team often does not win. This is because matchups, match-up related factors, are more decisive than overall talent and ability.
What I like to do is to use match-up-related considerations to find value in underdogs. For example, I really like the Jets because they have a uniquely strong pass defense, led by its group of decorated cornerbacks. The Jets are intriguing at their current odds because, with their pass defense, they match up well against other AFC contenders who rely heavily on passing the ball. I could foresee lower-scoring games in which the Jets would have an excellent chance of prevailing. Given this line of thinking, it’s reasonable to me to take a flyer on the Jets at such an attractive price. This is the sort of thinking that you should apply to your conference futures betting.
This being said, the Chiefs are favored to win the AFC at +325. The 49ers are favored to win the NFC at +250.
Win Totals
You can also bet on how many wins a team will have in a given season. The best strategy is to look at each team’s schedule and to think about matchups. You might, for example, find a team with a low win total that is playing a lot of talented teams that, however, they match up well against. Such a team might be an intriguing “over,” especially if there are other promising factors in play, such as a new head coach, which can really rejuvenate a group of players.
You’ll also want to think about the opponents. The “over” for a team with a low posted win total might be more intriguing if, for example, it faces a lot of opponents that are going to be in tough situations. Tough situations include, for example, facing a reputedly poor team in a different conference in between playing two difficult divisional opponents. If you see a lot of these sorts of situations where the underdog might pull off a surprise, then the “over” might make sense.
Season Awards
The best strategy for betting on player awards like MVP, Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, etc., involves realizing that nobody plays by himself. A Rookie of the Year, for example, is going to depend on his teammates for his success. A wide receiver, for example, will get more attractive yardage totals if he has a good quarterback.
This being said, betting on player awards involves, to an extent, betting on that team. But there is a caveat: offensive players are likelier to get better yardage totals if their team’s defense is poor. Higher-scoring games will include stronger offensive statistics.
Statistics are the best source of justification for different player awards, so you have to think about ways in which players will get good statistics.
Another thing you should think about is scheme. For example, a wide receiver might have been very good in college, but if he plays on a run-heavy squad, then he might not get a lot of attention and would therefore be a disappointing pick for Rookie of the Year.
This point reinforces my larger point that you should think about teams in different ways when you are deciding on which players to invest in.
Analyzing the Contenders for Super Bowl LIX
One contender out of the AFC is Kansas City, favored at +325 to win the AFC and +500 to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have a proven winner at quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, who has already led his team to three Super Bowl victories. Last year was a challenge for Mahomes because of his team’s deficiency at the wide receiver position. The Chiefs prioritized this issue in the offseason when they acquired Marquise Brown and used their first-round draft pick to select fellow wide receiver Xavier Worthy. On defense, the Chiefs will likewise be strong, despite the loss of their top cornerback. They have depth at the position, so other guys are poised to step up.
Baltimore is the second-most favored AFC contender, listed at +550 to win the AFC and +1000 to win the Super Bowl. The Ravens owned the NFL’s best scoring defense last year, one spot ahead of Kansas City. Regarding the prospect that they rank number one in this category this year as well, one major variable is the introduction of a new defensive coordinator. He is a young guy who has never called plays before. It is hard to tell how the defense will adjust. But the player talent is certainly there. Baltimore’s defense will excel on all three levels, especially with the selection of a good cornerback out of Clemson, Nate Wiggins, in the first round. It’s the offense that, if anything, will hold Baltimore back. Lamar Jackson simply does not win the big game in the postseason. The wide receiver position also took a hit with the loss of its top wide receiver.
The Long Shots
I want to explore one less-favored team that I believe will be a strong AFC contender: Jacksonville, posted at +2500 to win the AFC and +5000 to win the Super Bowl. If you think that I’m being ridiculous, just remember that odds aren’t predictive of reality but reflective of public perception. This team made the playoffs two years ago. Last year, it was 8-3 after beating the Texans. With roster-related improvements, this is still a strong squad. The key was to replace its defensive coordinator after the defense was primarily responsible for the meltdown down the stretch last year. Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen has a strong track record and a great plan to develop an identity on defense and to play to player strengths.
In the NFC, the most-heavily favored Super Bowl contender is San Francisco. The 49ers are listed at +250 to win the NFC and +600 to win the Super Bowl. They are laden with talent: they have arguably the best running back in the game, depth at wide receiver, one of the top tight ends, a quarterback who was in the MVP conversation last year, a defensive line with star power and newly with more depth, All-Pro-caliber linebackers like Fred Warner, and reputedly one of the best cornerbacks in Charvarius Ward.
Detroit, listed at +600 to win the NFC and at +1200 to win the Super Bowl, is another serious contender. The Lions certainly have enough firepower on offense to win the Super Bowl. Last year, they ranked second in total offense, and they’ll be loaded again this year at the running back and pass-catching positions. The key for them is to improve their defense. Specifically, they need to get better against the pass and against the run. For their pass defense, acquiring Carlton Davis is a big deal. He started for Tampa Bay when the Bucs won their Super Bowl. Moreover, D.J. Reader will improve Detroit’s run defense. Cincinnati’s rush defense was statistically much more effective when it had Reader on the field. Detroit has so much talent on both sides of the ball now that it is impossible to bet on the favored 49ers, as their price is relatively unattractive, to win the NFC.
Must-Watch Games in The 2024 NFL Season
- Chiefs vs. 49ers in Week 7
This is a must-watch game because it is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. This rematch factor will add emotion to San Francisco’s attempt to win. The 49ers will be out for revenge. Both teams are also among the NFL’s talented and best-coached groups, which is why both teams are favored to win their respective conference.
- Bills vs. Texans in Week 5
This game will feature a lot of offense. Both teams are well-known for loving to pass the ball. They have the quality at quarterback to have a very vertical effective pass attack, with Josh Allen at the helm for Buffalo and CJ Stroud for Houston. Also, Stefon Diggs is now a Texan. He’ll be facing his former team.
- Lions vs. 49ers in Week 17
This is another rematch game: the Lions lost to the 49ers in last year’s playoffs and will be out for revenge. Both teams are among the favorites to win the NFC, so great football should be played. Detroit is also just a fun team to watch in general because of its offensive firepower. San Francisco’s offense is at least as strong, though. Last year, these two teams finished one-two in total yardage and, this year, they could do so again.
- Eagles vs. Buccaneers in Week 4
This is another playoff rematch. Philadelphia collapsed at the end of last season. The culmination of its collapse last year was its loss to Tampa Bay, so the Eagles will be very emotional about this game, as they will want to use a win here to prove that they are back on the right track.
- Ravens vs. Chiefs in Week 1
The first game of the season always carries with extra excitement. Plus, this is a playoff rematch. Two of the best quarterbacks, in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, are going to duel. But this game will be especially salivating for lovers of good defense. Last year, the Chiefs ranked number two in scoring defense and the Ravens ranked number one.
Players to Watch Next Season
Patrick Mahomes, quarterback for the Chiefs, is known for his highlight-reel plays. He is a wizard when a play breaks down, as he’ll repeatedly make something out of nothing.
While Mahomes is always somebody to watch because of his excellence as an athlete and as a winner in general, Brock Purdy is somebody to watch for more critical reasons.
Brock Purdy: The Question Mark
He definitely earned his spot as San Francisco’s franchise quarterback. I don’t want to knock him, but there are a lot of critics who say that he is merely a product of San Francisco’s well-oiled offensive unit. He does have a lot of talent around him, and it will be interesting to see what use he makes of it when he faces strong defenses.
Lamar Jackson: The Dual Threat
Lamar Jackson is somebody to watch as an annual MVP candidate. He is especially dangerous as a runner, but he always strives to become a better passer. Last year, Baltimore’s offense become geared toward the pass, and Jackson amassed the most passing yards in his career. It will be worth watching to see if he can continue improving as a passer without Marquise Brown.
Jared Goff: The Pocket Passer
Jared Goff is very much a pocket-passer. In terms of quarterback rating, he was the best passer with a clean pocket. He benefits from having a lot of talented weapons around him who easily get open.
Christian McCaffrey: The Offensive Juggernaut
Christian McCaffrey is one of the NFL’s best offensive players. He is an effective runner, and he is very dangerous as a pass-catcher. He also has one of the best noses, if not the best nose, for the end zone.
L’Jarius Sneed: The Lockdown Corner
L’Jarius Sneed is one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks. He now plays for the Titans. The AFC South has a tradition where the last-place team from one year wins the division in the following year. Sneed’s abilities as a lockdown cornerback, especially in a division in which each of Tennessee’s opponents will have an excellent number one wide receiver, will conduce to Tennessee’s ability to continue this AFC South tradition.
Terrion Arnold: The Rising Star
Let’s consider someone who isn’t as well-known: Terrion Arnold. Detroit’s weakness was its defense last year. It is being said that this first-round selection Terrion Arnold, cornerback out of Alabama, is going to make an instant impact. He is a great athlete; he excels in man coverage; and he has amazing speed that will prevent wide receivers from beating him down field.
Can the Chiefs Pull Off a Legendary Three-Peat?
History is against the Chiefs here. No team in NFL history has won three consecutive Super Bowls. This historical fact speaks to a reality about the NFL that will make it difficult for the Chiefs to win a third straight Super Bowl this year.
This reality is that there is a lot of parity and variance. Parity means that there are a lot of other very good teams. It is hard enough to beat the other best teams in the NFL in a given year. It is especially hard to do so three years in a row. This is all the truer given the reality of variance. A referee can make a bad call or a player injury can happen or a kicker can have an off game.
A lot of unpredictable things can happen in a close game, making it difficult to win so consistently. This year, too, there will be a lot of competition: Baltimore with its strong quarterback play and top-notch defense is going to be a tough contender in the AFC. If the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl, they might have to deal with very talented 49ers and Lions teams that are well-rounded on both sides of the ball.
This being said, the Chiefs do arguably have the top quarterback in the game. They also have one of the best defenses led by perhaps the NFL’s top defensive coordinator. Their head coach is, furthermore, a proven winner.
NFL Regular Season FAQs
When does the NFL regular season start and end?
The NFL regular season begins on September 5, when the Ravens play the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, and ends on January 5.
How many games are in the NFL regular season?
There are 272 games in an NFL regular season. These include primetime games, international games, and games between divisional opponents.
What is a bye week?
A bye week is a week that each team gets once in a season in which it does not have a game scheduled.
How are the NFL divisions structured?
There are four divisions in each conference. Each division contains four teams. These divisions are organized geographically.
How are the playoff teams determined?
Playoff teams earned their spot by qualifying in one of various ways: they won their division or earned a wildcard spot – there are three wildcard spots available for each conference.
What is the significance of divisional games?
Divisional games are important because, if two teams in a division share the best overall record, then the first tiebreaker will be their head-to-head record and the second tiebreaker will be their win percentage in games played against teams in their division.
How is the NFL schedule determined?
Schedule-makers use a formula to decide who plays who. There is also a rotational aspect, ensuring that each team plays every other team in the NFL within a four-year timeframe. Moreover, each team plays every team in its division twice.
What is the importance of strength of schedule?
Strength of schedule is important because it has consequences and because it reveals a lot. Consequences include: if a team has an easy strength of schedule, then it might have a better chance of making the playoffs. In terms of what it reveals, we can get a better sense of how good a team really is if it faces more difficult opponents.
How do tiebreakers work for playoff spots?
There are various tiebreaker procedures in place. Which procedure gets applied depends on whether the teams are tied for the number one spot in their division, for a wildcard spot, and so on.
What are prime-time games?
Primetime games are games that are televised nationally. These will most commonly take place on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday nights, but Saturday night is also possible.
How can fans watch NFL games?
Fans can subscribe to a cable service or a streaming service that offers channels on which NFL games are played.
What is the NFL RedZone channel?
The NFL RedZone channel shows all of the games. It moves to a specific game – or games – when one of the teams involved are close to scoring a touchdown.
How are player statistics tracked during the season?
Stats are tracked and recorded by assigned personnel. For more advanced stats, advanced technology like tags that get placed inside player’ equipment gets used.
What awards are given at the end of the regular season?
Various awards are given, with the most prominent ones including, MVP, Coach of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Defensive Rookie of the Year.
How does the NFL Draft order get determined?
The idea is that the worst teams get to pick first while the best teams pick last. The Super Bowl winner will pick last in each round while the worst team picks first. The worst team is the team with the worst record. If multiple teams have the worst record, then there are various tiebreakers in place, the first one being strength of schedule: the team with the worst record and the weakest strength of schedule will pick first.
