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2024 NFL Schedule Release Analysis: Which Team Has the Toughest Path?

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The 2024 NFL schedule release happened Wednesday night, and fans at top-rated sportsbooks are already buzzing, planning and anticipating the upcoming season even as it is still almost a full 4 months away.

Still, it does get you excited to see the list of games and the path each team has to the playoffs and Super Bowl LIX.

We have some thoughts on the 2024 NFL schedule for the regular season for all 32 teams below.


AFC West Division


Kansas City Chiefs: Tough Start, Tough Finish

If the Chiefs are going to make history with a 3rd-straight Super Bowl win, they have to overcome a tough start, an early bye (Week 7) and a tough finish before the playoffs even start.

The Chiefs open the season on Thursday night at home against the Ravens in a rematch of the 2023 AFC Championship Game. That could be a tough game with Derrick Henry fresh and ready to run wild. Think the Ravens might hand the ball off more than 6 times to their running backs this time?

Then it’s another meeting with Cincinnati at Arrowhead, which certainly isn’t “Burrowhead” but let’s hope Joe Burrow is healthy this time. The NFL seemed to schedule this one early just to get that marquee matchup in there before any possible injury like what happened last year.

In Weeks 15-17, the Chiefs will play 3 games in 10 days with a trip to Cleveland, a home game with Houston on a Saturday, then a Wednesday trip to Pittsburgh for a Christmas game. That game with Houston could be big for the No. 1 seed.

The Chiefs proved last year they don’t need a bye week or home field to win the Super Bowl. However, if they are only a No. 3 seed this year with a Week 7 bye and that stretch of 3 games in 10 days, they may be a bit fatigued going into the playoffs this year.

Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh’s NFL Return

When Jim Harbaugh started his NFL coaching career with the 49ers in 2011, few expected he would pull off a 13-3 season and reach the NFC Championship Game. Now he gets a Los Angeles team with Justin Herbert at quarterback, and the schedule is favorable for a good 2-0 start with the team opening at home against the Raiders and then traveling to Carolina to face the 2-15 Panthers.

The Chargers will also see Denver and Arizona after their bye early in the season, so if Harbaugh gets this team off to a fast start, they could quickly gain confidence and make a return to the playoffs in Year 1 for him. None of their last 4 opponents won 10 games last year too.

Las Vegas Raiders: Tough Road for Antonio Pierce

New coach Antonio Pierce has a tall task ahead of him with a quarterback conundrum and a tough early schedule that sees the Raiders facing Justin Herbert (Chargers) and Lamar Jackson (Ravens) on the road right away. They also will have road games with the Chiefs, Rams, Bengals, Dolphins and Buccaneers.

Keep an eye on the Week 17 game in New Orleans as that should be the team’s opportunity to face former quarterback Derek Carr, their quarterback from 2014-2022.

Denver Broncos: Bo Nix’s Rookie Season

It is hard to imagine the Broncos are seriously competing for the Super Bowl in 2024 since this should be a mini-rebuilding year as the team moves forward with rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

The good news for coach Sean Payton is that none of Denver’s first 8 opponents rank in the top 12 in Super Bowl odds this season. They may not see an elite team until Week 9 (Ravens) unless the Jets (Week 4) pop off with Aaron Rodgers back.

The Broncos should start Nix in Week 1 and let him take his lumps early. The schedule only gets tougher later.


NFC West Division


San Francisco 49ers: Super Rematch

The 49ers have been in the last 3 NFC Championship Games and 2 Super Bowls since the 2019 season. However, the thing we have never seen them do is beating Patrick Mahomes, who is 4-0 against the 49ers, including 2-0 in the Super Bowl. We’ll see that Super Bowl rematch in Week 7 when the 49ers host the Chiefs in a late afternoon game. They need to get a win over that team for their confidence.

Yet, we’ll also see the 49ers defending their NFC crown in rematches with the Cowboys (Week 8), at Green Bay (Week 12) and they will host Detroit on a Monday night in Week 17 in a rematch of the NFC Championship Game.

At least most of those big games are at home this year, but that trip to Green Bay is interesting if the Packers do in fact take a leap after nearly beating the 49ers in the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams: Not Sneaking Up on Anyone This Year

The Rams were not expected to make the playoffs last year, and they lived up to that expectation for half a season before the offense got hot, partially due to rookie Puka Nacua’s record-breaking season, and led a playoff push. However, the Rams lost in Detroit in the wild card round as Matthew Stafford couldn’t score enough points against his former team.

Well, the 2024 season could start the same way as the Rams have a tough opener in Detroit where that offense is so tough. They’ll also face the 49ers and Packers early in the season, so don’t discount a 2-3 start going into the early bye week.

That early bye could also be detrimental for a team with one of the league’s oldest quarterbacks in Stafford, and Cooper Kupp is usually banged up during the season and could use some rest later, which is unlikely to come.

Seattle Seahawks: Better Defense Coming?

In the last 2 years, the Seahawks have flirted with 8-9 wins and the playoffs, often held back by a defense that needed Geno Smith to overcome with a lot of points and game-winning drives.

By hiring rookie coach Mike Macdonald from the Ravens, the hope is the defense can finally improve. The early schedule could help that as the Seahawks may open with a couple of rookie quarterbacks in Bo Nix (Broncos) and Drake Maye (Patriots).

They are also scheduled to play the Vikings (J.J. McCarthy) and Bears (Caleb Williams) late in the season, so that could be 4 games against the rookie quarterback class.

Arizona Cardinals: Better Start?

The Cardinals were left for dead with a rookie coach last year and no Kyler Murray for half a season as he was recovering from a torn ACL. However, the start to 2024 could be different as the Cardinals get the Bills, who often flop in Week 1. Then they host the next 3 weeks with the Rams, Lions and Commanders coming to Arizona.

Things get tougher later, but the team’s first 5 opponents after their Week 11 bye did not make the playoffs last year. This team should improve by at least a few wins with Murray having an exciting new weapon to throw to in Marvin Harrison Jr.


AFC East Division


Buffalo Bills: Regretting the Diggs Trade?

The Bills are no doubt experimenting with Josh Allen’s abilities this year after trading away Stefon Diggs to Houston. That could backfire and come to a head in Week 5 when the Bills are in Houston for a key AFC matchup. That comes a week after going to Baltimore for a Sunday night game.

The Bills also get a short week to go to Miami in Week 2, though it’s a Thursday night game, so it probably shouldn’t be 90 degrees like in 2022, the last time Allen actually lost a game to that team.

The schedule is tough, but the Bills get to end the last 3 weeks with a pair of games against the Patriots and a home game with the Jets – with Aaron Rodgers to be determined. If they are going to repeat as AFC East champions for the 5th year in a row, they must survive the first 6 weeks, so getting off to a good start without those veteran receivers is going to be critical.

Miami Dolphins: Same Old Story?

The Dolphins have been a playoff team under Mike McDaniel in both of his seasons. However, the bad trend has been a failure to beat good teams, especially on the road. McDaniel does not have a road win against a team that made the playoffs since September 2022, his first month as a coach.

With that in mind, who do the Dolphins see on the road this year that could be tough for them? They will face the Seahawks, Colts, Bills, Rams, Packers, Texans, Browns and Jets on the road. Most of those teams can score and keep up with the offense, so that could be tough.

The good news is the Dolphins don’t even have to face the Chiefs and Ravens like the Bills do, which could make up the difference in who wins the division.

New York Jets: This Better Work

Remember last year when the NFL loaded up the Jets’ early schedule with contenders and gave them a lot of prime-time games because of Aaron Rodgers? Oops, they did it again. The Jets have 6 prime-time games in the first 11 weeks of the season, and they have a 7th island game in Week 5 when they play the Vikings overseas.

Not only does Rodgers need to stay healthy, he better be pretty damn good because we’re going to get sick of seeing a bland offense with this team in so many island games. However, if it is vintage Rodgers, then it may be fine. We just have not seen him play at a high level since the 2021 season.

New England Patriots: Networks Beware

The Patriots enter a 5th season without Tom Brady and only a 1st without Bill Belichick for the first time since 1999. The networks are taking notice since the only prime-time game for the Patriots is a Thursday night in Week 3 against the Jets. We’re already thinking about the under in what could be the only prime-time game for rookie quarterback Drake Maye this year.

The Patriots will also be overseas to face the Jaguars in Week 7, which sounds like a Toy Story or other CGI broadcast they could do on Nickelodeon to add some excitement to the game.


NFC East Division


Dallas Cowboys: Tempered Expectations

Expectations are cooling on the Cowboys after a low-key offseason, and they are still coming off that poor playoff loss at home to the Packers. Still, that won’t stop the networks from loading up on 6 Dallas games in prime time, not to mention a typical Thanksgiving home game with the Giants.

Somehow, both Giants-Cowboys games are on a Thursday this year. We’ll also see the Cowboys face stronger competition like the 49ers, Ravens and Lions.

However, the NFC East could come down to Week 17 in Philadelphia. In the last 2 years, the Cowboys had the rematch late in the season at home where they won. This time, it’s on Philly’s turf and that could be a difference-maker.

Philadelphia Eagles: After the Collapse

The Eagles have been the NFL’s last unbeaten team in the last 2 years, and easy schedules at the start have helped that. It was also a brutal midseason schedule last year that led to the team collapsing as it finished with 11 wins despite a 10-1 start.

This year, the Eagles will open at home with a couple of playoff hopefuls in the Packers and Falcons, but then they play out a schedule that largely has very few Super Bowl contenders. Their toughest games are the pair with Dallas and the Week 13 trip to Baltimore.

It does not look like the Eagles will face a brutal stretch like they did last year. They also get the rematch with Dallas at home in Week 17, so that could be a way to win the division back from the Cowboys this year and go into the playoffs with some momentum – the complete opposite of last season.

Washington Commanders: The Dan Quinn-Jayden Daniels Era Begins

The Commanders have to play the AFC North, arguably the toughest division in football. They also have had a lot of trouble in beating the Eagles and Cowboys in their own division, so that’s potentially 8 difficult games right there.

The playoffs may not be in the cards for the Commanders, but at least they face very few Super Bowl contenders in their non-division games. They’ll see the Ravens, Bengals and Falcons.

That means rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels should get to start Week 1 and see what he can do in September against the Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals and Cardinals. That’s not the toughest stretch to start a career by any means.

New York Giants: We’re Getting a Break (Sort of)

Remember last year when the NFL kept forcing the Giants on us in prime time even though it was largely expected they would disappoint? Well, the good news is the Giants are buried in the 1 p.m. Sunday slate for Weeks 1-3 this year. We don’t have to watch them voluntarily until Week 4 Thursday Night Football against Dallas.

However, they have a Week 6 game on Sunday Night Football with the Bengals, and I’m not sure how that was negotiated. When does flex scheduling start again? They also play the Steelers in Week 8 on a Monday night, so hopefully Eli Manning will be doing the ManningCast and can offer some entertainment value for that one.

Still, after the Week 11 bye, we may not see the Giants in an island game outside of Thanksgiving in Dallas, so that’s good news.


AFC North Division


Baltimore Ravens: Big Bye Week Placement

If the Ravens are going to rebound from falling short again in what looked like a dream season, the 2024 schedule looks to be doing them some favors.

Playing the Chiefs in Week 1 is ideal since you get to put a fresh Derrick Henry on the field and ride him in that game. The Ravens will also be battle-tested with games against the Bills, Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and of course they play in the AFC North, a great division with hard-nosed, physical games.

However, getting a bye in Week 14 could be huge, especially if the Ravens can win in Kansas City in Week 1 and give themselves the best shot at another bye week in the playoffs. Henry has led the NFL in carries in 4-of-5 seasons, and he’ll be 31 years old when the playoffs start in January. Keeping him fresh for that can be huge, so that late bye is nice.

One negative is the Ravens have just 3 days off before facing the Texans in Houston in Week 17 on Christmas Day. That could be another game that determines home-field advantage in the AFC. Yet, if it’s a game the Ravens can win convincingly like last year’s playoff game, then they could enter the playoffs with a ton of confidence and wins in hand over their rivals.

Cleveland Browns: From Tough to Tougher

The NFL schedule makers really hammered the AFC North teams with these late-season slates. For Cleveland, it’ll never get easier than it does in the first 5 weeks, and even then they still have to face the Cowboys and Jaguars.

However, they’ll later travel to Philly before a 3-week run against the Bengals, Ravens and Chargers before the bye. If Deshaun Watson isn’t playing better football for the Browns than what he’s shown so far, this could get ugly.

After the bye, the Browns are going to see the Steelers twice, go to tough places to play like Denver and New Orleans and play the Chiefs and Dolphins. They also have road rematches with the Bengals and Ravens in 2 of the last 3 weeks of the season, including Week 18 in Baltimore.

This feels like a team to fade from returning to the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Good Luck, Coach Tomlin

The Steelers have reached 20 seasons of not having a losing record, but good luck in extending that to a 21st season. Not only does Mike Tomlin have to figure out if Russell Wilson can still play at a high level, but he has to navigate arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL in 2024.

There are 13 teams who have odds of +2500 or better to win Super Bowl LIX, and the Steelers have 9 games against those teams.

If the non-losing season streak is going to continue, the Steelers better hope to build a good buffer in the 1st half of the schedule, or they will be hoping to face multiple backup quarterbacks down the stretch.

All 6 of Pittsburgh’s AFC North games come in the final 8 weeks of the season, and the Steelers also have to go to Philadelphia and host Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Christmas. They could very well be flirting with 8-8 going into that final game at home with the Bengals having a chance to end the 2nd-longest streak in NFL history of non-losing seasons.

Cincinnati Bengals: Better Stay Healthy, Joe

Quarterback health swung the other way in the AFC North last year when Joe Burrow was on a bad calf to start the season and then had a hand injury ending his season prematurely. The Bengals took advantage of Lamar Jackson’s December injuries in 2021 and 2022 to win the AFC North.

If both quarterbacks stay healthy this year, then the Bengals better step up and win these big games if they want to get back to seriously competing for Super Bowls. They get a shot in Kansas City in Week 2 and host the Ravens in Week 5.

The schedule does not look overly tough the rest of the way, but those big matchups are the ones to circle if you want an idea of how this season will go for Cincy. The bad news may be that they are early in the season, and this team has not gotten off to fast starts under Burrow and coach Zac Taylor.


NFC North Division


Detroit Lions: No Longer Underdogs

The Lions proved they were for real last season by winning the NFC North and coming the closest they’ve ever been to the Super Bowl. Now they must contend with a stronger NFC North that will be gunning to dethrone them in 2024.

However, the Lions won’t play a division game until Minnesota in Week 7, and they won’t see the Bears until Week 13 when rookie quarterback Caleb Williams will hopefully be further along in his development.

There’s a big one in Week 14 in Detroit against the Packers on a Thursday night, so that could be the swing game in the division as Green Bay should be the top challenger to the Lions this year. Still, the Lions will also have to go back to San Francisco in Week 17, looking for a different outcome from the NFC Championship Game blown lead.

Green Bay Packers: The Next Division Champ?

There is a lot of excitement for the Packers this year with the way Jordan Love finished 2023, how the team nearly won a divisional round playoff game and the changes on defense.

However, the wild thing about Green Bay’s schedule is that you could argue every game is against a team that has serious potential to put a better team on the field this year than in 2023, with the exception of maybe Miami. Still, the Dolphins are a playoff team with some of the fastest offensive players in the game, so that’s not an easy matchup either.

That’s not to say the Packers have a ridiculously hard schedule, but there just aren’t many “gimme games” littered throughout it. Alas, we know some of those teams who should get better, including the Titans, Colts, Bears and Vikings, could always disappoint this year.

Still, it’s up to the Packers to take that next step and challenge for the top seed with Love. They have a big trip to Detroit in Week 14 that could go a long way in determining who wins the NFC North this year.

Chicago Bears: How Soon Is Now for Matt Eberflus?

The Bears may have a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, but he has a strong supporting cast around him this year. Coach Matt Eberflus needs wins to justify coming back in 2025, so the Bears need a good start.

The good news is that of their first 9 opponents, only the Texans and Rams made the playoffs last year. In fact, the Bears drew one of the weaker AFC divisions (South), and they don’t have to play NFC contenders like Dallas, Philadelphia and Atlanta.

Still, they will have to step up and challenge the Lions and Packers in 4 division games this year.

Minnesota Vikings: Brutal Start

We like the idea of Minnesota starting rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy as soon as possible, but this schedule might be an argument for going into the season with Sam Darnold at QB1.

While the Vikings get a winnable game against the Giants in Week 1, things amp up quickly with the 49ers, Texans, Packers and Jets before an early bye in Week 6. That’s pretty rough, especially if those teams are as good as expected.

If the Vikings wanted to wait a little on McCarthy, who is only 21 years old, it’d be understandable.


AFC South Division


Houston Texans: Super Bowl Bound?

Hire a good coach, draft a franchise quarterback and top pass rusher, build up your receiving corps (Stefon Diggs) and add another top pass rusher (Danielle Hunter), and why can’t Houston ascend to the top in Year 2? It’s happened before in the NFL.

The September schedule is favorable for a good start as the Texans won’t see a 2023 playoff team until Buffalo in Week 5, and you think Diggs will be ready for that one?

Stiffer challenges come later, but a Week 14 bye is very interesting as it will give the Texans some rest and prep time before their most important games of the season. They’ll face the Dolphins, Chiefs and Ravens in a span of 10 days in December. That stretch could decide everything, from the No. 1 seed in the AFC to the MVP this season.

If the Texans are going to make that leap to the elite class, they’ll earn it with an impressive season against this schedule.

Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson Getting Snubbed?

C.J. Stroud and the Texans have stolen all the thunder in the AFC South, but Anthony Richardson and the Colts have a shot to send an early message in Week 1 when they meet.

Of course, Richardson has to stay healthy, something he failed miserably to do in his rookie season. The concern there might be why the Colts have 10 straight 1:00 p.m. games to start the 2024 season. They are not scheduled for any island game until Week 11 when they’ll play the Jets on the road on Sunday Night Football. So far, that’s their only night game all season.

Still, we’ll see how the Colts perform this year with a 2nd-year quarterback who is still very inexperienced because of his injuries in 2023.

Jacksonville Jaguars: London Calling Again

The London Jaguars are back at it again as the NFL has them in London in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 6-7 to face the Bears and Patriots, potentially a pair of rookie quarterbacks in Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Is that enough to get up at 9:30 A.M. on a Sunday? We’ll see.

Still, it’s a tough early schedule for the Jaguars, who have to play the Dolphins, Browns, Bills, Texans and Colts before their road trip. It doesn’t get easier upon their return when they play the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions.

The only good news is the Jaguars could have their easiest stretch of games down the stretch in December when they get the Titans (twice), Jets, Raiders and Colts in their last 5 games. Potentially good news for a team that faded down the stretch last year after an 8-3 start.

Tennessee Titans: Dark Horse or Dark Times?

If the Texans do not take that next step in 2024, every other team in the AFC South has a case for being the team that challenges them for the division title. Yet, the Titans have the most to prove with Will Levis and a rookie coach in Brian Callahan.

How does the schedule look? The good news is they avoid having to play the Chiefs, 49ers and Ravens – the top 3 Super Bowl contenders by the odds. However, the Titans will still look to be underdogs in most games barring a fast start and huge improvement from Levis in Year 2.


NFC South Division


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Division Reign Ending?

The Buccaneers have won the NFC South the last 3 years, but it is hard to be impressed with 8-9 and 9-8 records the last 2 years. Other teams in the division made big moves while the Buccaneers largely worked on keeping the band together for 2024.

Tampa will be greatly tested early with a trip to Detroit in Week 2, a playoff rematch with the Eagles in Week 4 and then October starts with key divisional trips to Atlanta (TNF) and New Orleans. If that’s not tough enough, buckle up for the next 4 games against the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers. That’s 3 of the 4 teams from Championship Sunday and the main competition in the NFC South with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta now.

Things ease up a little after the Week 11 bye, but the Buccaneers are in for their toughest division battle in years with this schedule.

Atlanta Falcons: Captain Kirk to the Rescue?

Yeah, the Falcons were supposed to have an easy schedule last year and still found a way to finish 7-10 and get the coach fired and quarterback replaced. Still, maybe they were just never the right people for the jobs.

Enter Kirk Cousins and coach Raheem Morris. Enter Michael Penix Jr. too, but that shouldn’t matter this year. The Falcons need to take advantage of this schedule because they only have 3 games against the top 13 Super Bowl contenders (odds of +2500 or better), and 2 of those games are against the Eagles (Week 2) and Chiefs (Week 3) in September.

Even a 1-2 start shouldn’t sink Atlanta as long as it comes through in those divisional games against the Saints (Week 4) and Buccaneers (Week 5). Both are at home. Get those games in the bag and the Falcons can improve from there under Cousins.

However, if they bomb at home in division games and Cousins is looking rusty after he tore his Achilles, would they dare pull their rich quarterback after a 1-4 start for the rookie?

New Orleans Saints: Missed Opportunity?

The Saints were the 2023 posterchild for blowing an easy schedule and missing the playoffs. They have fallen to 3rd in the odds to win the NFC South, and the schedule is going to be tougher this year. But very tough? That’s probably not the case as they still play in the NFC South, where no one appears to be that great, and they are playing an AFC West division that has the Chiefs and 3 teams that are trying to be good again.

However, the Saints will have to face a tough start with the Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons and Chiefs in the first 5 weeks alone. If Derek Carr can start 2024 the way he ended 2023, then they could survive that start with a 2-3 record or better before things get easier.

Given Carr’s struggles against the good teams, it is hard to picture the Saints winning in Green Bay in December on a Monday night (Week 16). Carr also has to face the Raiders in Week 17 and we know that defense should be fired up from Antonio Pierce’s squad.

Last year was the Saints’ best opportunity to win this division and they just missed it.

Carolina Panthers: No Prime Time for You

The Panthers are the only team to not get a single prime-time game in 2024. This is what happens when you finish 2-15 and never took a snap with a 4th quarter lead all season.

Alas, the Panthers will get an island game when they face the Giants in Munich in Week 10 with a 9:30 a.m. start time. Sounds like a great day to sleep in if we’re just being honest.

Still, Carolina will have a shot to improve under new coach Dave Canales and with Bryce Young having better weapons around him in Year 2. Who knows, with the way this division is, maybe we see the Panthers on Sunday Night Football in Week 18 in a division title game in Atlanta to see who can finish 9-8 in the final game of the 2024 NFL regular season.