NFL Super Bowl Swinger’s Best Bets: Rare 5-Unit Max Play on Super Bowl Sunday
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Swinging Johnson
- February 6, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Eagles ML (+105) for 5 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
As the curtain closes on the 2024 NFL season, Swinging Johnson is up nearly 6 units on the season and playing with house money at the top-rated sportsbooks. This week he has just his fourth maximum 5-unit play of the season and is counting on it covering just as the other three have.
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 31-31-1 ATS (+5.95 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Conference Championship Round Recap (1-1 ATS, -0.30 units)
Can you freaking believe this is it? The Super Bowl is just about here, and then we go into a deep football depression that only briefly releases us from its clutches at the league’s annual meat market in April. Then it’s back to wondering what the hell to do on Sunday.
Well, before I go on, I want to thank the outstanding team of editors at BMR who give me free rein to make this column my own without an iota of interference. I’ve got nothing but love for this talented group, and it’s why Swinger’s NFL Picks has been going strong for a dozen consecutive NFL seasons.
Alright, last week I should have bet more on the Eagles, but all I got down for was three lousy units laying six against the Commanders. They could have been laying 26, and we still would have covered as this one turned into a laugher, with Philly claiming a 55-23 victory.
I took those three units and burned all of them on the Buffalo Bills as they bowed 32-29 to the Chiefs. I’m not going to blame the refs, the bad spot or any number of questionable calls. I honestly believed the Bills were going to win going away despite the hostile environment of Arrowhead Stadium and the referees’ proclivity to treat Patrick Mahomes like the little Baby Jesus.
So, we won one, lost one and dropped 30 cents on the vig in the process. After a full season, we’re playing with house money and are going to drop a max unit play on the boys from the City of Brotherly Love. It’s important to note we’ve only had three other 5-unit max plays this season, and they have all covered the number.
Let’s make our top plays a perfect 4-0 ATS this year!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 09, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Look, I’ve been bitten by the Chiefs several times this season and as recently as two weeks ago when they defeated the Bills, much to my chagrin. Although a case could be made that I’m just chasing my tail and fading the Chiefs because they’re due to lose, and I want some measure of redemption for the money I’ve lost betting against them, I tell you that is not the case.
Okay, maybe there’s a grain of truth to that, but I’m not fading the Chiefs; I’m heartily endorsing the Eagles. The talent disparity between these teams is striking, and the only way the Chiefs win is because Patrick Mahomes is some sort of preternatural creature, and KC’s three-peat was written in the stars.
A Scoring Machine Ready to Explode
The Chiefs’ offense was ranked 15th in scoring during the regular season, averaging 22.6 points per game and scoring 27.5 PPG in their postseason wins over the Texans and Bills. However, the Eagles are averaging 35 points per game in the playoffs and have an absolute beast running the rock in Saquon “Who’s Gonna Stop Me” Barkley, while twin terrors A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will be burning down the sidelines waiting for Jalen Hurts to feed them early and often.
We should also note that the Chiefs are susceptible to tight ends having big days against them, which is why Dallas Goedert should be on your Super Bowl prop list.
Can’t Run, Can’t Hide
While many, like me, are focusing on Philly’s offense, we should note that the Eagles’ defense should feast on the middling tackles tasked with protecting Mahomes. Nolan Smith Jr. and Jalen Carter will make Mahomes take flight, and let’s just hope the refs keep their whistles in their pockets when the Chiefs quarterback pretends to slide and gets leveled by an incoming Eagle for doing so.
The Chiefs won’t be able to run on the Eagles, as Philly owns the No. 1 run defense. Therefore, KC’s aerial attack will be very predictable, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw at least a pair of picks from the boys in green.
I don’t see Philly losing this game, which is why this is only my fourth 5-unit max play of the season!
NFL Pick: Eagles ML (+105) for 5 units at Bovada
NFL Prop: Dallas Goedert Over 54 Receiving Yards (-114) for 1 unit at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (6-14-1 ATS)
The Woodman believed in Josh Allen and the Bills last week, and who could blame him? We both took a bath on that one as Patrick Mahomes continues to make those who doubt him pay for their insolence.
The Woodman is still stinging from that lesson and has decided to switch sides and back the reigning Super Bowl champs. Of course, I couldn’t disagree more, but if you still believe in the Woodman despite his hellacious performance this season, then I suggest you seek help…and bet the farm on the Chiefs (his words, not mine).
Woodman’s Pick: Chiefs -1 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
