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NFL Week 1 Swinger’s Best Bets: Dogs Howl on Sunday
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Swinging Johnson
- September 8, 2024
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NFL Top Pick: Panthers +4 (-110) for 3 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The NFL season has arrived, and so has Swinging Johnson’s weekly NFL picks column with the latest NFL odds right here at Bookmakers Review. Swinger will once again attempt to navigate the turbulent waters of pro football handicapping with his top three best bets using a 1-to-5-unit scale. Without further ado, let’s hear what the man has to say!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 0-0 ATS (0.00 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Welcome Back!
It’s here! It’s finally back! After six months of a sports calendar barren of our beloved NFL, the weather has cooled and football has mercifully arrived. Are you psyched?! Well, I certainly am, and I welcome back all my readers who have followed me for the last dozen football seasons. I appreciate the loyalty and I embrace any of the newbies who may have stumbled onto our little corner of the internet.
Each week I select my top three NFL picks and assign a unit size. The bigger my unit size, the more confident I am – that’s what he said – and I keep a legitimate week-to-week tally of my record and the corresponding units, whether I’m up or down. There are no shenanigans on this block, you’ll know exactly where I stand each and every week.
And two more bits of housekeeping. The first is that this column is published on Thursday, therefore the lines will likely shift by the time the games kick on Sunday. So, if you like what you see then don’t delay and get down right away at some of the best sportsbooks featured right here at BMR.
Lastly, my loyal co-pilot and fellow handicapper, the Woodman, has been with me as long as long as I’ve been writing this column. No, it’s not my alter ego. He’s a winner of several NFL handicapping contests and has a penchant for dogs – canine and under. The Woodman makes one ATS pick a week and you can find his selection at the bottom of the page.
And that’s it. Buckle up your chinstrap and let’s get ready to crush those books!
Pick’em Pool Contest
NFL regular season starts this week, and it’s time to put your football knowledge to the test with BMRForum.com’s $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool! Think you know your team? Prove it! Whether you’re a seasoned fan or new to the game, this is your chance to win big and show off your skills. Don’t miss out!
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 08, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
It’s Week 1 so let’s not go off the deep end. I don’t care how much you like a side or total, you’re insane if you’re even considering a max bet. With that caveat, I believe the opening week of the NFL season is always a nice spot to bet on the underdogs.
The Carolina Panthers are the first of three on Sunday, despite their putrid output last season and an equally heinous rookie year for top pick Bryce Young. The public will have all those lowlights fresh in their mind as though nothing changed in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Saints will suddenly be viewed as the NFC South’s version of the Chiefs compared to the Panthers.
Carolina has demonstrably upgraded its offensive line and Bryce Young has a quarterback coaching guru this season in Dave Canales, while also having the luxury of a new weapon in former Steelers wideout, Diontae Johnson. Oh, and don’t be surprised when this Carolina defense stymies the Saints offense.
There’s a reason this line dropped a full point since the opener, as the sharps pounced on the Cats early but we’re still getting a critical number at +4, so let’s get at it.
NFL Pick: Panthers +4 (-110) for 3 units at Bookmaker
Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, September 08, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Soldier Field
If you watched this year’s edition of Hard Knocks then I can’t blame you if you’re buying what the Bears are selling. They’ve got the No. 1 overall pick in Caleb Williams and another talented rookie in wideout Rome Odunze (picked 9th) which is the foundation of what all Bears fans believe will be a football renaissance in the Windy City.
Sure, Tennessee’s QB Will Levis had an uneven rookie season but he’s got a new head coach and three new offensive weapons in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard. On the other side of the ball, the Titans have a new defensive coordinator and signed two top corners, L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, while the trade for former Rams linebacker, Ernest Jones, will beef up Tennessee’s pass rush.
Once again, we see the masses overreacting and we are going to take advantage of Joe Q. Public’s ignorance and grab the points with another road dog.
NFL Pick: Titans +4 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, September 08, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
I’m not a natural-born dog lover, as I’ve been painfully transparent about my proclivity for betting on chalky favorites just like the masses I so often criticize. But if I’m ever going to take a walk on the wild side, it’s Week 1, when so many teams are hyped while many others are overlooked. Here we have just such a match.
Stephon Diggs and Gabe Davis are no longer in Buffalo and as much as I admire Josh Allen’s abilities, who’s he going to throw to? Keon Coleman has potential as a top-of-the-second-round pick out of Florida State, but other than him, Allen’s options are going to be limited on the outside. However, he’s got an excellent twin tight end set in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox while running back James Cook is a viable outlet valve.
But it’s important to realize that Arizona’s Kyler Murray is healthy for the first time in a long time to start the season and he has what just about every talking head has called a “generational talent” in Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals also have an outstanding offensive line that should allow Murray to move in the pocket and find his targets.
I think the Bills win this one but 6.5 is just too much to give a team like the Cardinals that is being severely underrated by the betting public.
NFL Pick: Cardinals +6.5 (-107) for 2 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (0-0 ATS)
The Woodman never saw a dog he didn’t like which is why it’s not surprising he owns a nationwide chain of kennels and has his eyes on a live road hound in the form of the Dallas Cowboys. The optics certainly seem to favor the Boyz with the Dak Prescott/Cee Dee Lamb connection as the eye candy that will lure the great unwashed masses.
The question is whether Lamb is ready for live action after holding out until just a few days ago when Uncle Jerry gave him 136 million reasons to suit up in Week 1. Will he need a few weeks to shake off the rust? If not, Dallas is indeed, a live dog in this one.
Woodman’s Pick: Cowboys +2.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
