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The NFL preseason is over, roster cuts have been made, and we are a week away from kickoff to the real games this season. We have finally made it.
But before the games get underway, there are many things we have learned in the last few months that can inform our expectations for teams and players this season, and even help us with our NFL futures bets at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Let’s recap a wild offseason in the NFL.
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Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Try to Silence the Noise in Three-peat Attempt
No story is bigger in the NFL this season than the Kansas City Chiefs trying to become the 1st team to win 3 straight Super Bowls. They are the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LIX (+500 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), and quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+500) is also the favorite to win his 3rd MVP award.
But boy do the tabloids love the negative press that this team has generated this offseason. Mahomes and coach Andy Reid have some distractions that will hopefully go away when the real games begin next week.
Here is just a smattering of stories that have popped up with the Chiefs this offseason:
- Top wide receiver Rashee Rice could face disciplinary action from the league soon for his role in a hit-and-run crash in Dallas during a race in Dallas in March.
- Mahomes’ father has pled guilty to his 3rd DWI, and Mahomes’ wife was just dragged on social media after liking a political post to which she offered a sassy response to the haters that Patrick probably wishes she wouldn’t have done.
- Kicker Harrison Butker sparked a lot of heat for his commencement speech at a college where he made comments about the role of women in the workplace and family, abortion rights, and LGBTQ+ issues.
- Every move star tight end Travis Kelce makes is covered as he continues dating Taylor Swift, the most famous woman in the world today, and she’s had some scary moments this summer, including a foiled plot for a deadly attack at one of her concerts, which Travis frequently attends.
With a chance to make history and have bragging rights forever, the Chiefs need to buckle down and get to business. No more distractions.
Rookie Quarterbacks to the Rescue in Cities Starved for a Franchise Passer
Teams like the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, and Denver Broncos have been searching for a franchise quarterback for years, if not decades. Maybe the 2024 draft has answered their prayers after history was made with 6 of the top 12 picks being quarterbacks.
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams is a heavy favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Chicago (+155 at BetOnline), and he had a stellar preseason where he showed elite playmaking ability. He is walking into quite arguably the best situation ever for a quarterback drafted No. 1 overall, and expectations are already high in Year 1.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels also made some promising plays in the preseason for Washington and will be a Week 1 starter. This team hasn’t felt this kind of promise at quarterback since Robert Griffin III’s rookie season in 2012. That’s also the last time the team won 10 games in a season, so it’s a fresh start with Daniels and head coach Dan Quinn.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos haven’t been to the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50, and we finally get to see Sean Payton coach a rookie quarterback from Day 1 in Bo Nix. He led several scoring drives in the preseason and might be exactly what the team was looking for.
Minnesota Vikings
We also had some expectations for J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota after a good preseason debut, but he tore his meniscus and had season-ending surgery. So, it looks like a season of Sam Darnold, which makes the Vikings feel like one of the least relevant teams to watch this year.
New England Patriots
We also are waiting for the Patriots to name rookie Drake Maye their starter. That may not happen until a few weeks of the season go by for rookie coach Jerod Mayo. He may be in over his head with this roster. Things got so bad there under Bill Belichick’s general manager shortcomings that the Patriots even cut their kicker they spent a mid-round pick on last year.
New Orleans Saints
Also, while Derek Carr is the starter in New Orleans, 5th-round rookie Spencer Rattler was the No. 7 quarterback in this draft and he really turned some heads in the preseason. If Carr struggles this year, don’t be surprised if we see Rattler get an opportunity.
Las Vegas Raiders
It makes you wonder why the Raiders, by far the biggest losers at quarterback in the draft, didn’t take a chance on Rattler after missing out on the top 6 quarterbacks. Now they’re stuck between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell this year, an unserious way of dealing with the Chiefs in the AFC West.
The 2022 Quarterback Class Was Incredibly Bad
We already had a good idea that the 2022 NFL quarterback class was weak. The only player in the top 70 picks was Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh. However, it is looking historically inept after just two full years:
- Kenny Pickett had the lowest touchdown pass rate in NFL history. The Steelers traded him to Philadelphia. However, he looked awful and was unable to push the ball down the field this preseason.
- Desmond Ridder was benched in Atlanta and then traded to Arizona. However, he couldn’t even beat out Clayton Tune there, so the Cardinals cut him.
- The Patriots are reportedly releasing Bailey Zappe. He threw the worst fake spike interception in NFL history last season against the Colts.
- Sam Howell was Washington’s starter last year. However, he was traded to Seattle in the offseason where he’ll backup Geno Smith.
- Malik Willis was a 3rd-round pick by the Titans, but they just traded him to Green Bay.
The only saving grace continues to be Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant, for San Francisco. At least he’s worked out incredibly well.
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Non-Losing Season Streak Is in Jeopardy
We learned in 2023 not to overreact to August preseason football. Remember when Kenny Pickett and the 1st-unit Pittsburgh offense scored 5 touchdowns on 5 drives for offensive coordinator Matt Canada?
Come September, the Steelers were one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Canada was fired in November and Pickett was essentially benched for Mason Rudolph in December.
We’ll try not to make that mistake again about overreacting to the preseason. However, the Steelers were quite ugly on offense in August this year with new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Wilson can’t seem to stop taking sacks and producing punts. Fields had way too many issues fumbling with the center exchange. Second-year tackle Broderick Jones also looked quite soft at times.
The Steelers have gone 20 straight seasons without a losing record. They can tie the record held by Dallas (21 years) this year if they do it again. But in a tough division and conference with this mess of an offense, the Steelers are looking like a team that might just finish under 8.5 wins as sportsbooks favor them to do right now.
Maybe Wilson is just washed, and Fields is never going to be the guy in the NFL. On the other hand, if the Steelers do the opposite of the preseason like they did in 2023, then look for Wilson to throw 4 touchdowns in Atlanta in Week 1.
Top Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers Are Getting Really Expensive
The importance of a franchise quarterback can never be overstated in the NFL, but they sure are getting expensive. Worse, what if you pay one before you’re really sure he is that high caliber of player?
This summer, Jared Goff (Lions), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), and Jordan Love (Packers) all signed contract extensions that will pay them between $53 and $55 million per season, the latter number tying the all-time record.
You can certainly like these quarterbacks, but do you trust and love them enough on such a huge deal? Jordan Love finished 2023 in great fashion. However, this is a crazy contract for a quarterback who only started for 1 season. Worse, what happens when you hit on a quarterback and a receiver at the same time and have to pay them both? These days, a top wideout is looking for over $30 million per season with their extension.
Coughing Up Cash
Some teams have been willing to pay it as Justin Jefferson ($35 million), CeeDee Lamb ($34 million), A.J. Brown ($32 million), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($30 million), and Tyreek Hill ($30 million) all have deals worth at least $30 million per season.
But between the quarterback and top wideout, that can be over $90 million per season now if you hit on both as some teams have. Don’t be surprised when the Bengals soon pay Ja’Marr Chase $35 million to keep him with Burrow in Cincinnati. The Cowboys just coughed up that kind of money to keep Lamb happy in Dallas, and by waiting to pay Dak Prescott (free agent after this year), owner Jerry Jones might need to cough up $60 million per year for him.
It could get to the point where we see teams do what the Chiefs did in 2022. They traded Hill to Miami and let Mahomes do his thing with Kelce and a random cast of wideouts. All of this to still win some Super Bowls.
The salary cap is not fake. There are ways to maneuver the money so that you’re not $90 million per year to two players. However, if you hit on these important positions with players you want to keep around, then you are expected to pay big money. It is still wild to see several wide receivers making money that the highest-paid quarterback was getting as recently as 2019.
Also, will the 49ers please extend wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk or trade him? This story has existed for 6 months and it’s so frustrating to keep hearing about it with no action. He’s the kind of player that should be extended while the 49ers are still paying Purdy peanuts (relatively speaking). Aiyuk is their best route runner and a player just hitting his prime.
The Dynamic Kickoff Should Make Kickoffs Important Again
Finally, we got a glimpse all preseason of the new dynamic kickoff in the NFL. In 2023, over 70% of kickoffs were touchbacks, making it a moot play too often. So, the NFL created a new kickoff that should lower high-impact collisions. This could also cut down on concussions and should make more returnable kickoffs.
Based on the numbers from the 2024 preseason, we could see the number of returnable kickoffs nearly triple from 2023 to over 50 per team for the season. The 26.0 yards per return average in the preseason would also be the highest average in NFL history for a season.
Longer returns would lead to better starting field position, which should lead to more points scored. Also, a touchback in the end zone now puts the ball at the 30 instead of the 25. This means field position should get a boost this year. That said, it should also stop the 3-year decline of scoring and yardage in the NFL.
Under bettors have been soaking things up the last 3 seasons as you could have been profitable by betting the under in every NFL game in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Perhaps with the dynamic kickoff creating better field position, and so far, a decent bill of health for starters going into Week 1, we should see more overs and scoring in the 2024 season.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
