Top NFL Pick: Seahawks -6 (-112) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Swinger’s top pick last week, the underdog Minnesota Vikings, not only covered but defeated the Falcons on the road and this week he has a 5-unit maximum play! Let’s see if Swinger can sweep his NFL picks for the first time this season in Week 10!
- Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 11-16 ATS (-22.51 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 9 Recap
I will concede the Rams were a lousy three-unit pick against the Packers last week. That was an indefensible selection and you are welcome to break out the pitchforks and lanterns as retribution for such nonsense.
However, the Texans -2½ tortured me. The kicker got injured and Houston took a knee instead of going for a point-spread covering two-point conversion at the very end of the game. Ironically, C.J. Stroud broke a rookie record with five touchdowns and half a million yards but they only beat the Bucs by two points… I just can’t (I sound like my daughter).
Okay, the good news was the Vikings +5, which subsequently plummeted to +4 after word got out that it was my 4-unit pick (let me have this, will you?) was good as gold even without Kissin’ Cousins slingin’ the leather. The Vikings not only covered but defeated the Falcons outright, 31-28, on the road no less!
Alright, this season has a biblical Job-like vibe to it, and after all my trials and tribulations I just know that a warm, heavenly light awaits. Good God, I’m a drama queen. Let’s go cash some winners.
New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Key Stats
- Las Vegas is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against an AFC opponent.
- Las Vegas is 3-13 SU in their last 16 games played in Week 10.
- Las Vegas is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games.
The Jets got blown out by the Chargers last week, 27-6, but the question I have is – were they really blown out? Many casual fans will look at that score and won’t understand that New York’s wounds were largely self-inflicted. They fumbled four times and watched LA’s Derius Davis return a punt 87 yards for a touchdown less than two minutes into the game.
None of that will happen in this game, and if you want to get a taste of how good this Jet’s defense is, consider they faced one of the best offensive units in the league last week and allowed only 20 points. But even more impressive, New York held Justin Herbert to 16-of-30 for 136 yards and Austin Ekeler to 47 yards on 14 carries.
The Jets’ offense is, to put it mildly – offensive – but this week they, like their defense, will have a much easier time of it against the Raiders’ 30th-ranked run-stop unit, so expect big things from Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook in the Jet’s backfield.
The Pick
We’re getting the Jets at a great number because the public hates them, but they are enamored with this latest lovefest in Sin City with the new head coach getting a win in his debut against an abomination of a team in the New York Giants. Don’t be fooled. Go J-E-T-S. Jets!
NFL Pick: Jets -1 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) – For 4 units
Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Lumen Field
Key Stats
- Washington is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
- Washington is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an NFC opponent
- Seattle is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home.
The Commanders notched a 20-17 win over the Patriots last week simply because New England’s offense is inept and its offensive line can’t stop a nosebleed. Still, the Patriots managed 17 points, but it’s doubtful they would have even achieved that modest number had Montez Sweat and Chase Young been in uniform instead of getting traded the week before.
But now the Commanders’ D will face a much more explosive offense that has struggled against very good defenses like Baltimore and Cleveland. I suspect Geno Smith will roll considering Washington has the 30th ranked defense, surrendering over 27 yards per game, and 29th against the pass allowing nearly 257 yards per game.
The Seahawks are coming off an absolute beating at the hands of the Ravens, which is why we’re not laying -7 in this game. Meanwhile, the Commanders dumped two of their best defensive players less than 10 days ago as they are now in a full rebuild.
The Pick
Fortunately for the Seahawks’ offense, and those who bet on them, they will get ample opportunity to pad their stats and light up the scoreboard on Sunday. This is a rare 5-unit max play so let’s go get this!
NFL Pick: Seahawks -6 (-112) at Bookmaker – For 5 units
Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 AM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Key Stats
- Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Tampa Bay.
- Tennessee is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played in week 10.
- Tampa Bay is 0-7 SU in their last 7 games against an AFC opponent.
The Bucs’ defense can’t stop the run and their offense can’t rush the ball. Those are two very big reasons why the Titans will win this game, as quarterback Will Levis will have it much easier than he did against a suffocating Pittsburgh defense last week. There will be lots of room to roam and plenty of targets to hit against the Bucs’ 28th-ranked pass defense.
The Pick
As for the Bucs’ offense, Baker Mayfield will also be able to exploit mismatches as the Titans are ranked 17th against the pass but unlike Levis, Mayfield’s pass protection is not all that good and a stout passing rushing unit like Tennessee’s will create havoc with Tampa Bay’s aerial assault. The Titans should win this one by a field goal or more.
NFL Pick: Titans +1 (-108) at Heritage Sports – For 3 units
The Woodman’s Corner (2-7 ATS)
Good Golly Miss Molly – ’tis the season of Woodman’s folly. The former is an old Little Richard tune from well before I made my diaper debut but, don’t you know it, that song still kicks and has stood the test of time.
Unfortunately, the latter is a succinct synopsis of the Woodman’s disappointing season. Last week our man backed the Buffalo Bills as a live road dog against the Bengals and they flamed like so many before them.
Hey, I get it, I’m in no position to cast stones after my own uphill battles with the books this year, as this NFL season has been an aberration for both of us.
But alas, there is no more farm to bet, the livestock are nothing more than carcasses on which the vultures feast, and even the Woodman’s dog isn’t talking to him. These are the dark days for our once formidable handicapper, but if there is anyone out there who still has faith – or figures his string of ATS failures has to end – then the Houston Texans, the bane of my existence last week, is your ticket to financial freedom. So sayeth the Woodman!
Woodman’s Pick: Texans +7 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
