NFL Pick: Ravens -6 (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
The NFL’s Week 10 schedule has a few games between flagship franchises, Colts-Patriots, and Packers-Steelers, that are still trying to find their way without having a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback these days. The AFC North also has a huge rematch with the Ravens hosting Cleveland.
After digging through the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review, we picked out our top spreads or totals for your Week 10 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Watch Colts-Patriots Score More Points than Chiefs-Dolphins Did
The NFL is in Germany for the 2nd week in a row as the Indianapolis Colts meet the New England Patriots, which would have been a huge deal 15 years ago, but both franchises have fallen on hard times in recent years.
Still, watch these teams end up scoring more points than the Chiefs and Dolphins did in last week’s 21-14 disappointment. The Colts are a 2-point favorite with a total of 43.5 points. We are looking at the spread.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 09:30 AM ET at Frankfurt Stadium
Indy’s Scoring Consistency
Going into Week 10, the Colts remain the only team to score at least 20 points in every game this season. They are the 60th team in NFL history to do that in the first 9 games of a season, and that list is filled with playoff teams, scoring juggernauts, and some NFL champions. So, the 4-5 Colts do look oddly out of place on it with their backup quarterback (Gardner Minshew) and rookie coach (Shane Steichen) leading the way.
The streak may have been in jeopardy last Sunday as the Colts were held to a season-low 198 yards of offense in Carolina. However, they scored 20 points in the 2nd quarter alone thanks to a pick-6 late in the quarter by Kenny Moore, who followed it up with another pick-6 in the other half to help the Colts to a 27-13 win.
Go figure, the Colts piled up a season-high 456 yards of offense against a tough Cleveland defense but couldn’t break 200 yards in Carolina.
But the 20-point mark is a big one for the Colts on the other side of the ball as they are 4-0 when they hold teams to 20 or fewer points and 0-5 when they allow more than 20 points this season. The problem is the Colts have allowed at least 29 points in every loss, and they still rank 28th in points allowed per game this season.
The good news is the Patriots are 31st in scoring at 15 points per game and they are 26th in scoring defense, allowing 25.3 points per game. Basically, if the Colts can get to 20 points again, there is a good shot they win this one. If they can generate turnovers like they did in Carolina, they definitely have this one, and the Patriots are known to cough up the ball for defensive touchdowns under Mac Jones.
New England Is the Worst Team in the AFC
Simply put, the Patriots have sunk to the bottom of the AFC with a 2-7 record in a conference where everyone else has at least 3 wins. The Patriots are not good on either side of the ball, Mac Jones continues to struggle, the wide receivers are embarrassing, and the running game is not even reliable.
Finding something that New England does well is hard this year as even the special teams have not been up to par. The Patriots rank No. 2 in rushing yards per carry allowed and have been good at scoring and limiting touchdowns in the red zone, so there’s something positive.
But other than that, this team is struggling with only a low-scoring win over the Jets and an uncharacteristically good game-winning drive against Buffalo (after blowing a 12-point lead in the 4th quarter) to show for wins.
While the Colts allow a fair number of points, some of their defensive rankings are not bad, and quarterbacks only have 10 touchdowns to 9 interceptions against them this season. Jones has 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions this season himself as he leads an offense that ranks 27th on 3rd down.
The Pick
A year ago, the Patriots beat the Colts 26-3, but that was a broken team that started Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. Steichen has the Colts playing much better this year, and the Patriots have never looked worse under Bill Belichick.
After what happened last week in Germany with the Dolphins and Chiefs, we’re a little scared of any overhitting in one of these island games, so we like the Colts covering the 2-point spread as the best part of this computer score for your NFL picks. But it should be a game that has more points in it than the Chiefs-Dolphins did if you can believe that.
Score Prediction: Colts 25 – Patriots 20
NFL Pick: Colts -2 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
It’s Not Ben Roethlisberger vs. Aaron Rodgers Anymore
The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) and Green Bay Packers (3-5) are both coming off low-scoring home wins in Week 9. These teams once played in a high-scoring Super Bowl a year after Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers met in a classic 37-36 duel. Those days are long over as the offenses struggle behind Kenny Pickett and Jordan Love, the successors (for now) to those Hall of Fame legends.
The Steelers are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 37.5 points. When is the total too low for these teams?
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
Jordan Love’s Struggles
If the Packers still do anything well, it’s beat the Chicago Bears anywhere and beat the Rams at home. The Rams have not won in Green Bay since 2006, and they helped the Packers get their 3rd win of the season on Sunday.
But that Week 1 win over Chicago feels like an outlier in the way the Packers scored 38 points. Green Bay hasn’t scored more than 20 points in 6 straight games, tied for its longest streak since 1992. This is what life without Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers looks like, Packers fans.
Jordan Love had 6 touchdown passes in the first 2 games this season, but between big YAC plays and a lack of overall efficiency and success, you could see it was going to be tougher than that going forward. Since Week 3, Love has 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions as accuracy and decision making have both been problematic.
Love is still throwing the 3rd-deepest passes in the league (9.1 air yards per target) despite getting very little out of his deep throws as he ranks 24th in yards per attempt (6.6). He throws a league-high 22.3% of his passes into tight windows. The only other quarterback above 20% this season happens to be Kenny Pickett (21.7% according to Next Gen Stats), so this could be a good game for multiple interceptions with these quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh’s defense has 16 takeaways this season. Only the Saints and Jaguars have more with 18 each. The Steelers have held their last 4 opponents to 20 or fewer points. They know they have to do that to help the offense.
Pittsburgh’s Reliably Weak Offense
Offensive coordinator Matt Canada decided after 2.5 seasons on the job that he would call last week’s game from the sideline instead of up in the press box. The result was an opening-drive touchdown that looked different than the usual slow starts for his offense, but then the Steelers settled into their usual bouts of ineffective offense and needed another 4th-quarter comeback for the 20-16 win over Tennessee.
Kenny Pickett only averaged 5.3 yards per attempt in the win, and he threw for 160 yards just 4 days after leaving a game with a rib injury. But with George Pickens held to negative yardage in the last game and only 1 catch against the Jaguars, it is hard to say this offense is improving. At least Diontae Johnson ended his 21-game touchdown drought, and Jaylen Warren looks like a key contributor behind Najee Harris at running back.
But the Steelers are the only team since World War II to be outgained in each of their 8 games in a season and still have a winning record. It’s not a sustainable way to win for Mike Tomlin and company, but the Canada offense is the card they were dealt and continue to hold onto when all evidence points to they should have parted ways before the season.
The Pick
This game is not going to be pretty with these quarterbacks. A score like 20-16 or 20-17 is certainly realistic, and that might even be the best-case scenario for a game with a watchable ending that goes down to the wire.
Four of the last 5 games for Pittsburgh and 5 of the last 6 games for Green Bay have gone under 37.5 points. Until these offenses start showing more, we’ll gladly take the under here.
Score Prediction: Packers 20 – Steelers 16
NFL Pick: Under 37.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Ravens to Sweep Cleveland
The AFC North is loaded with every team having a record of 5-3 or better, but the Ravens (7-2) are leading by a full 2 games over everyone. They can complete a sweep of the Browns (5-3) this week after already beating them 28-3 in Cleveland in Week 4.
The Browns will have a different quarterback this time as Deshaun Watson is back, but he will have to contend with Lamar Jackson for the first time in this rivalry as each quarterback has missed one of the last possible meetings.
The Ravens are a 6-point home favorite with a total of 38 points. We are looking at the spread.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
The Dominant Ravens
At plus-115 points, the Ravens have the best scoring differential in the NFL. We have not seen them at this level since the 2019 team, which was also 7-2 and plus-111 points through 9 games on their way to a No. 1 seed and MVP award for Lamar Jackson.
We are used to seeing too many injuries and close games for the Ravens, but they have already blown out 3 teams by at least 25 points this year, including the Browns in Week 4.
That 28-3 final does deserve a little asterisk since rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was a surprise start for Baltimore after Deshaun Watson’s shoulder injury kept him out. The rookie threw 3 interceptions, which helped the Ravens score on short fields.
But Jackson was 15-of-19 for 186 yards and accounted for 4 total touchdowns in that game. The Browns are going to have to defend better than that, and Jackson has arguably picked up his play since then as he gets more comfortable in this new offense with new pieces like rookie Zay Flowers and veteran Odell Beckham Jr.
Is Cleveland a Paper Tiger?
The Browns are 5-3, but this is a big game for them to show they are legitimate. The defense has taken full advantage of the weak offenses on the schedule, including a gift of Clayton Tune starting for Arizona in last week’s 27-0 shutout.
Other Cleveland wins include a 24-3 win over Joe Burrow on his injured calf in Week 1, a 27-3 demolition of a bad Tennessee offense, and a 39-38 shootout in Indianapolis that saw Gardner Minshew pass for over 300 yards with 4 total touchdowns.
The Browns’ saving grace may be the 19-17 win over San Francisco, but even in a game where Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey were all hurt, the 49ers were still a missed 41-yard field goal away from winning.
Cleveland has a very good defense led by Myles Garrett, but let’s not go comparing it to the 1985 Bears or 2002 Buccaneers or 2013 Seahawks just yet. The Browns do not run the ball as effectively without Nick Chubb, and Deshaun Watson is averaging 180.4 passing yards per game with a 41.8 QBR, which are numbers almost identical to what he did in 6 starts for Cleveland last year.
The Pick
Also, the Ravens enter this game with the No. 1 scoring defense. Cleveland is No. 3 behind the Chiefs too. If someone can be expected to dominate on defense in this game, it should be the home team.
A division rematch should be much closer than these recent Baltimore blowouts against NFC teams, but we still like the computer score showing the Ravens win by a full touchdown to cover the spread. This is Baltimore’s time to reclaim the AFC North.
Score Prediction: Ravens 23 – Browns 16
NFL Pick: Ravens -6 (-110) at BetAnySports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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