Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan. That’s a page I ripped right out of the history books, and I uttered the phrase to my brilliant son after watching my three, four-unit, chalky plays melt like butter in a blast furnace.
Incidentally, I had also gotten hammered during the carnage. Still, despite my intoxicated state, I wanted to let my boy know that I owned it and would not try to deflect, like many other NFL handicappers do when they get beaten like a red-headed stepchild.
I may be stinging from my litany of miscues this season, but you won’t see me ducking, hiding, or lying. Nope, failure shall not be an orphan in this house, although I would gladly put it up for adoption should anyone desire the company.
Last week was a special kind of nightmare. The plays were so chalky, and only one of the three actually won the game (but didn’t cover), while the other two not only failed to cover the number but also lost their respective games outright. The Packers, Lions, and Chargers all did me dirty for four units each, adding up to a total of -13.62 units for the miserable day.
We’re in deep, at more than the midpoint of the season, and all we can do is chip away, a bit at a time. This week’s best NFL picks from some other BMR cappers can also be found in case you’re looking for a fresh perspective.
Let’s get to our NFL picks Week 10, and here’s the silver lining—we can’t do any worse!
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 10-18 ATS (-33.52 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 10 At-a-Glance
My strategy for this week’s NFL picks is not going to deviate despite my spectacularly inept performance thus far. The game plan is simple: research the games and scour the injury report. However, I am taking extra caution against laying the lumber and becoming one of the sheeple who get slaughtered by the bookmakers.
Below are our NFL picks for Week 10, so let’s get back on the winning track and cash those tickets!
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets (+1)
Sunday, November 9 – 1:00 PM EST
The Browns are not a formidable offensive team, but on defense, they work wonders. That’s a small reason why this line has flipped from Cleveland opening as two-point road underdogs to two-point road chalk. The main reason is that their opponents dealt two of their best defensive players away this week.
But because we are backing the Browns, it’s only prudent to go shopping and find the sharpest available line. I found a steal at Heritage Sports, where I can get Cleveland -1 versus -2½ everywhere else.
The Jets are no longer winless after they faced a team with an anemic defense, the Cincinnati Bengals, and secured a 39-38 victory last week. But that’s not happening this week, as the Browns boast one of the most ferocious pass rushes, with Myles Garret leading the charge.
But Fields will regress to the mean after the Browns wreak havoc and create chaos in the Jets’ backfield. They won’t score, but the problem is, the Browns don’t do much scoring themselves, which is why this is a relatively meager wager. However, Cleveland’s Quinshon Judkins is one hell of a runner, and he will be the straw that stirs the drink on Sunday.
Let’s also understand that the Jets dealt the 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sauce Gardner, and 3x Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams away after their big win over the Bengals. Way to keep that locker room pumped, Jets execs!
If the Browns had any semblance of an aerial attack, I’d bump this up a few units, but they don’t, so let’s take it slow.
Expert Pick: Cleveland Browns -1 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Sunday, November 9 – 4:05 PM EST
There aren’t many things you can count on in life, but the Seahawks beating the Cardinals is one of those things. Seattle has defeated Arizona in each one of their last eight meetings and is 7-1 ATS during that streak. Earlier this season, the Hawks defeated the Cards, 23-20, in the desert as 1½ point road favorites.
After dropping five straight, Jacoby Brissett led the Redbirds to a 27-17 win over the Cowboys in Dallas. But Arizona’s defense is one-dimensional, and the connection Brissett has established with Marvin Harrison Jr. will be disrupted when the Seahawks defense comes knocking.
Arizona has no rushing attack to speak of, ranked 20th and averaging 111 yards per game, and they will be opposed by Seattle’s No. 2 run-stop unit, holding opponents to 85 yards per game. But just wait until the Seahawks get the ball and the suddenly resurgent Sam Darnold starts cookin’ with gas. Seattle boasts the No. 4 passing game in the league, while the Cardinals rank 23rd in defending it.
I hate the line we’re getting, which is why I am buying it down to -6 for an extra dime in vig. I expect the Seahawks to win this one by double digits, but if I’m wrong, I’ll be damned if I get edged by a hook on an important number. Let’s lay it and like it with Seattle.
Expert Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6 (-120) buying the half-point for 3 units at Bookmaker
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Sunday, November 9 – 8:20 PM EST
This is the third and final leg of my NFL picks this week. And dammit, it feels mighty fine to be backing an underdog for a change. The Chargers are but a shell of themselves since super stud tackle Joe Alt has been sidelined. Last week, Los Angeles defeated Tennessee, 27-20, but the Bolts’ offensive line allowed their franchise savior, Justin Herbert, to get sacked six times.
Now, LA will have to deal with Pittsburgh’s sterling pass rush with T.J. Watt leading the way. And if you think the Chargers’ Kimani Vidal, who was held to 30 rushing yards on a dozen carries last week by the Jags, will have any more running room against a Steelers run-stop unit that silenced Indy’s Jonathan Taylor last week, limiting him to 45 yards on 14 carries, then think again.
Although the Steelers offense will find the sledding tough as well against a stout LA defense, they have a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers pulling the trigger, and his line will be much sturdier than Herbert’s shredded front.
The under 45 might not be a bad bet either, but for our purposes, we are backing Pittsburgh +3.
Expert Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-113) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Picks (6-3 ATS)
I sneezed, and the Woodman caught a cold. Or should I say his prodigious powers of prognostication went cold as he also failed to cover the number with the Colts-3, a team that lost outright to the Steelers. Trust me, I know the feeling.
Nevertheless, despite the loss, he remains three games over .500, and this week he is going back to his New England roots and telling everyone within earshot to bet the farm on the Patriots!
The Woodman’s Week 10 NFL Pick: Patriots +2½ (+101) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Week 10 Bets Now
We’ve gone over our NFL picks Week 10, including the Browns to bounce back against the Jets, the Seahawks’ dominance over Arizona, and the Steelers as live underdogs in Los Angeles. If there’s one game we’re circling, it’s Pittsburgh vs. the Chargers, as it could turn the tide for this week’s card.
Remember that odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see for our picks game may not be around by gametime, so keep an eye on the line movement and act fast when you see value.
You can always find more expert NFL picks and football predictions at Bookmakers Review.
Where to Find the Best NFL Odds
To make the most of our NFL picks for Week 10, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
