NFL Week 10 Swinger’s Best Bets: Bolts Jolt Titans on Sunday
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Swinging Johnson
- November 7, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Chargers -7 (-125) for 5 units buying the half-point at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Swinger cashed with his top bet of the week last week, the LA Chargers, who cruised to a 27-10 win over the Browns, which gave our man four units. This week, SJ has a rare 5-unit max play on the board, and you don’t want to miss it!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 9-17-1 ATS (-30.54 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Don’t forget to join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for a shot at huge prizes throughout the regular season.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel! For this week, our expert has covered the Bills vs. Colts and Lions vs. Texans matchups.
Week 9 Recap (1-2 ATS, -3.77 units)
My first wager of the day at the top-rated sportsbooks went swimmingly as I made a no-sweat bet for four units on the Bolts that went down like a big bowl of mocha chip on a hot summer day when the Chargers defeated the Browns, 27-10.
Unfortunately, that’s where the good times ended, as I dropped three units on the Raiders +7.5 as they got mauled by the Bengals and four units on the Colts +5.5 when they bowed to the Vikings in Minnesota. Overall, 1-2 ATS and down 3.77 units for Week 9
I can’t avoid the fact that we are in the midst of the single worst season here at Swinger’s Picks. But denial is not a river in Egypt, and I’m looking at myself hard in the mirror. However, this shame spiral won’t last forever, so buckle up, buttercups, and let’s keep on trucking.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 10, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Do you smell that? The faint whiff of insouciance peppered with the mild aroma of arrogance wafting from the Vikings as they make their way to the Sunshine State to battle the Jags. Minnesota was scoreless in the first half last week before scoring three touchdowns in the second half en route to a 21-13 win over the Colts.
Minnesota’s Sam Darnold was positively surgical last week, completing 82.3% of his passes for 290 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, Darnold threw two picks and had a fumble turnover. I’m rooting for Sam Darnold this season but just not this week because I think the Vikings are a good fade in this spot for a few reasons.
Flat Vikings Meet Rising Jags
First and foremost, the Vikings are coming off a hard-fought Sunday night game in which they came out flat against the Colts. Now they have an opponent in front of them that’s neither a divisional rival nor a playoff contender. The Jaguars are 2-7 and are the proverbial cellar dwellers. Not exactly a marquee matchup for the Vikings, who won’t be putting the pedal to the metal for this one.
We should also note that the Jags are playing much better recently and have covered the number in their last three contests after having defeated the Patriots 32-16 before getting edged by the Packers, 20-17, and last week hanging tough with a potent Eagles team and covering as 7.5 point road dogs in a 28-23 loss in Philadelphia.
Lastly, Trevor Lawrence is cool when the blitz is hot, completing over 64% of his passes under pressure, and there’s nothing this Minnesota defense likes doing more than blitzing, as they do it more than any team in the NFL. This should allow Jax to move the sticks and keep this one within the generous margins we’re getting.
NFL Pick: Jaguars +4.5 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 10, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
There’s nothing sweeter than a repeater, and that’s precisely what we plan on doing with our 5-unit max play on the LA Chargers. Yes, these are the same Chargers that brought home four units to me last week, but this time it will be a nickel.
The Titans are coming off a rare victory last week. The only issue is that it was against the woeful New England Patriots, and they needed overtime, no less, to seal the deal on a 20-17 victory. Well, now they are facing a real team, and the Tennessee tailbacks won’t have nearly as much room to roam against the NFL’s No. 3 defense.
Chargers Eye Big Win
The Titans will either be putting in backup Mason Rudolph, who’s likely a better choice than starter Will Levis at this point, who is currently suffering from a shoulder injury. But either quarterback will act as the proverbial lamb to the slaughter once Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack punch through the lackluster Titan’s offensive line.
Bolts’ quarterback Justin Herbert will be able to dissect a decimated Titans’ secondary, so scoring will come early and often. I smell a blowout, which is why this is one of my rare maximum unit wagers.
NFL Pick: Chargers -7 (-125) for 5 units buying the half-point at Bovada
Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 10, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Who doesn’t love the Lions this year? Sure, you might not be too enamored if you’re a fan of one of their divisional rivals, but for the rest of us, this is a fun bunch to watch.
However, Detroit is due for a letdown while the Texans are poised to rebound from a tough 21-13 loss to the Jets on Thursday of last week. That means Houston has also had 10 days to prepare for this one while the Lions are likely still reading their press clippings from their big 24-14 win over the Packers.
We should also note that C.J. Stroud will see his primary weapon, Nico Collins, return to action after missing last week’s game against the Jets. That will be a turbo boost for this Texans offense, but I am still reining in the number of units because the Lions are simply that good this season. Nevertheless, we’re getting north of a field goal, which makes the Texans a live home dog here.
NFL Pick: Texans +3.5 (-105) for 2 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (2-7 ATS)
The Woodman, like me, is burning through C-Notes faster than a fat kid devouring a warm Krispy Kreme. Hopping on the hounds has not been profitable for him this season, as he watched the Broncos +9.5 melt like butter in a blast furnace against the Ravens last week in a 41-10 setback.
This week, our fearless leader is telling us not to lose faith in the Broncos, for they shall avenge their dreadful loss with a winning performance this week as 9-point road hounds at Arrowhead when they take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Woodman’s Pick: Broncos +9 (-121) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
