Top NFL Pick: 49ers -11.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) – For 4 units
It’s time to rebound after a brutal Week 10 so let’s see if Swinger can pick himself up off the mat and come out swinging with his Week 11 best bets.
- Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 11-19 ATS (-35.66 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 10 Recap
I normally don’t drink on Sundays but I felt a different perspective was needed last week after watching the Titans tank for 3 units in the early game before I braced for the storm that was brewing later that afternoon and into the evening.
I’m not sure if that was such a wise idea because it’s hard to maintain a buzz when the games aren’t going your way, especially those 4 and 5-unit plays that couldn’t lose.
But lose they did as the Seahawks defeated the Commanders, 29-26, yet failed to cover the 6-point impost costing me my Play of the Day and 5-units while the Jets bowed to the lowly Raiders, 16-12, as a one-point road favorite which pilfered 4 units from my once prodigious bankroll.
No More Crown Royal
By the time the smoke cleared, there was no amount of Crown Royal shots and espresso martinis that could lift me from the depths of a devastating Sunday of NFL football. Monday morning came quickly and as soon as I opened my sleepy little eyes the horror of yesterday’s events unfolded and even the three Advils I took couldn’t shake me from that lingering sports hangover.
My great-great grandfather was such a habitual loser he once parlayed the Germans in both wars and I feel like I’ve been channeling his spirit throughout this disastrous season. Well, nothing cures losing like winning so let’s try this again.
Cheers to Week 11 and good riddance to Week 10. Now, let’s take a look at the NFL odds!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Key Stats
- Tampa Bay is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games against an NFC West opponent.
- San Francisco is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against an NFC opponent.
- San Francisco is 4-2 ATS against Tampa Bay over the last 6 games.
This smacks of a square play because it is. However, the public is not always wrong and they won’t be in this one. We often focus on the skill players but the addition of Chase Young will make San Francisco’s No. 2 ranked defense even better.
And assuming that is the case, how is Baker Mayfield going to avoid the onslaught he will face on Sunday with Young and Nick Bosa stopping by in the backfield to exchange unpleasantries? I will grant you that Tampa Bay has been a fade this season for me but this has all the makings of a Bay Area blowout.
The Pick
The Niners are now healthy and we saw what they did to the Jags last week (34-3) so how the hell are the Bucs going to counter an attack that is home to the No. 3 ranked offense, averaging 28 points per game?
Call me Joe Q. Public and square as a microwave but I’m laying it and liking it with the 49ers.
NFL Pick: 49ers -11.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) – For 4 units
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Key Stats
- Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Jacksonville is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against an AFC opponent.
When a good team like Jacksonville gets humiliated, they usually come back with an inspired effort the following week. In case you missed it, the Jags were throttled, 34-3, by a superior and motivated 49ers squad last week but now they are moving down several clicks in class to take on the Titans.
Tennessee does one thing fairly well and that’s pounding the football with steamroller Derrick Henry running the rock. The Titans rank 14th, averaging 106 rushing yards per game, but that won’t be nearly enough to keep them close in this one as they have the 26th-ranked passing attack averaging just over 185 yards per contest.
The Pick
The Jags have one of the best run defenses in the league, containing opponents to just 86.4 yards per game which places them 5th in that category. As long as they contain Henry, I don’t see much hope for the Titans getting the cover.
The caveat in all of this is that it is a divisional game and teams often get more motivated for these clashes, especially the underdog that has something to prove while the favorite may take their neighborhood rivals for granted.
NFL Pick: Jaguars -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports – For 3 units
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, November 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
Key Stats
- NY Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Washington.
- NY Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing in Washington.
- Washington is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an NFC East opponent.
The Giants are a disaster this season and if Tommy DeVito fails early then you will likely see a quick hook in favor of veteran Matt Barkley (no relation to Saquon – don’t @me). But the public always goes overboard and will likely bet the Commanders like they’re the 2007 Patriots.
Well, I am here to say that the Commanders shouldn’t be favored by double-digits against the Little Sisters of the Poor let alone another NFL team, even one as bad as the Giants. Washington recently traded away defensive end Chase Young, the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, which signaled they were restocking draft picks for next year.
The Pick
But since then, they defeated an abysmal Patriots team, 20-17, and acquitted themselves well in a 29-26 loss to Seattle last week that cost me a 5-unit max bet. On the other hand, the Giants have dropped 7 of their last 8 games with the only victory coming against – you guessed it – the Commanders in a 14-7 decision less than a month ago.
Yes, you can make the argument the Giants had Tyrod Taylor at quarterback but Washington only managed seven points against the same defense they will play on Sunday.
Look, it’s the Giants, so we have to curtail our unit amount but they are worth a flier in this spot.
NFL Pick: Giants +10 (-110) at Everygame (visit our Everygame review) – For 2 units
The Woodman’s Corner (3-7 ATS)
At least someone won last Sunday as the Woodman cast his lot with C.J. Stroud who continues to resemble a veteran All-Pro rather than a fresh-faced rookie. The Titans upset the Bengals and Woodman got a bit of redemption after several weeks of giving his dough to the books.
This week he’s buying what Antonio Pierce is selling in Sin City – a football renaissance – and backing the Black against the high-flying Miami Dolphins. He loves the road hound and says: “Bet the farm on the Raiders!”.
Woodman’s Pick: Raiders +13 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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