NFL Week 11 Swinger’s Best Bets: Chalky Bets Rule on Sunday
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Swinging Johnson
- November 14, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Lions -13.5 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger’s 5-unit wager on the Chargers was only his second max play of the NFL season, but it proved to be a no-sweat bet last week as the Bolts cruised to a 27-17 victory over the Titans. Let’s see what the man has up his sleeve and find out if he can carry his momentum into Week 11.
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 11-18-1 ATS (-26.78 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Don’t forget to join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for a shot at huge prizes throughout the regular season. And if you’re looking for more value picks, our expert on our YouTube channel has additional betting angles for the Ravens vs. Steelers and Chiefs vs. Bills matchups.
Week 10 Recap (2-1 ATS, +3.76 units)
If you’ve been following me this season—well, allow me to say, you have my condolences—you undoubtedly know how often key players on the teams I have selected have been injured during the game and essentially extinguished any chance I had for a cover. It’s happened so often that I think it’s time to sage my office and call in a priest to get my keyboard exorcised.
Well, the injury bug vexed me again as Trevor Lawrence was ruled out of the game against the Chargers, where I went to great lengths to explain how good he is against the blitz. Therefore, it meant he had an excellent matchup against the Vikings, a team that blitzes more often than any other club in the league.
I locked in the Jaguars at +4.5 for three units, and of course, the line climbed to +7 when it was announced Mac Jones would replace the injured Trevor Lawrence. Naturally, the Jags lost by five, which means they failed to cover my early number by a measly hook. My only solace was that at least anyone who followed me and bet the Jags got +7 by the time this piece was published.
Max Play Success
Okay, now the good news. We clicked on our 5-unit max play on the Bolts, which means our two max plays are undefeated this year. We also selected the Texans to cover against the Lions, and the +3.5 we were getting was just good enough in their 26-23 loss to the Lions. That was two units in my hand for a 2-1 ATS week and 3.76 units to the good.
It should’ve been a sweep for Yours Truly, but at least we got a few bucks back. That elusive sweep is coming. I can feel it. Let’s go!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Ford Field
I realize the Lions had to fight for their collective lives last week and scored a huge win over the Texans. But the team they’re facing on Sunday is light years away from Houston in terms of talent, and they will be lambs to the slaughter when they enter the Motor City on Sunday afternoon.
The talent disparity between these clubs is vast, and so too is the spread. Yet, the Lions have won and covered against the Jags in their last four meetings. But the last time they tangoed, two years ago, Detroit drew away to a 40-14 road win as narrow one-point favorites.
The Lions own the No. 2 offense in the league, averaging 31.6 points per game, trailing only Baltimore at 31.8 PPG. Tennessee is 27th in scoring, averaging 17.4 points per contest, and has the 29th-ranked defense, surrendering 26.7 points per game.
I realize this is a chalky play, but a blowout is waiting to happen, and we’re here for all of it.
NFL Pick: Lions -13.5 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
This game is basically a slightly more competitive version of the one above. But instead of laying 13.5 at home, we’re laying 6 on the road.
Who’s better, the Jaguars or the Titans? I’d have to say that’s like asking which is the prettiest pig in the poke. But if I had to choose, I’d give the nod to Jax, which means the Titans are the worst team in the league, although the Panthers and Giants could give them a run for their money.
Sam Darnold’s Redemption Tour
On the other hand, the Vikings have been a pleasant surprise this season, and Sam Darnold has had quite a bit to do with it. Although he was dreadful last week (5 picks) in a winning effort, I suspect he will be back with a vengeance this week.
This matchup is a hellscape for Tennessee’s Wil Levis as the Vikings blitz more than any team in the league. Levis isn’t all that great when he has time, but when he’s under duress, he folds like a cheap suit.
Lay the points on the road like the rest of the squares and cash a ticket. Remember, the public isn’t always wrong!
NFL Pick: Vikings -6 (-105) for 4 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
I realize I may be in the minority, but doesn’t it feel like the Chiefs are due for a loss? They just eked out a win over the Broncos last week after blocking a game-winning field goal but failed to cover for the third straight time. The most lopsided win they’ve had this year is a 13-point victory over the Saints.
I don’t know; I’m just not convinced they are ready to rebound cleanly from last week’s rally against the Broncos to travel halfway across the country and beat the only team that can dethrone them as AFC Conference champs. The Bills have covered four of their last five games, and I suspect they will make it five of six after Sunday.
Bills’ Dynamic Offense
Both teams boast top-10 defenses, but the Bills have a more dynamic offense, averaging 29 points per game (3rd), and I believe they can move the sticks against the Chiefs, a team that is susceptible to short flares to tight ends. Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid might be a good prop target in this one as well.
The recent history between these teams reveals that the Chiefs win when it counts as their two consecutive playoff wins over the Bills attest. However, Buffalo has won and covered their last three regular-season games over the Chiefs, and I see that pattern continuing.
NFL Pick: Bills -1 (-124) for 3 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (3-7 ATS)
The Woodman was due for a badly needed cover last week, and he got it when the Broncos gave the Chiefs all they could handle and easily covered in a 16-14 loss. Let’s face it, both the Woodman and I were due after all our trials and tribulations this season.
Let’s hope he carries that mojo into Week 11 with another big road dog in the Sin City Raiders this week as they travel to South Beach to take on the Dolphins. Getting north of a touchdown looks like a decent bet to me, and if you’re feelin’ what the Woodman is feelin’… get yourself checked by a qualified physician and then bet the Fish.
Woodman’s Pick: Raiders +7.5 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
