Top NFL Pick: Ravens -3 (-120) at Bovada for 4 units (visit our Bovada Review)
Last Sunday was sweep week for Swinger as our man finally connected with three winning ATS picks. Let’s break down our NFL odds and see if we can get back in the ring to take another swing at the books, as Week 12 is here and he’s ready to rock!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 14-19 ATS (-26.66 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
Week 12 Recap
Whoa, what a difference a week makes. I went from zero to hero and from the outhouse to the penthouse in only a matter of seven days. On Week 11, we clicked for 4 units with the 49ers over the Bucs and the Jags put 3 units in our pockets with a 34-14 win over the Titans that we never had to sweat.
And lastly, wonder of all wonders, Big Blue finally came to play when the Giants not only covered as 10-point road dogs –they dropped to as low as +7 ½ by kickoff–, but hammered the lackluster Redskins, 31-19, bringing us 2 units to the good. Those who had the intestinal fortitude to bet the G-Men on the moneyline, I salute you!
Nevertheless, I don’t have the same intoxicating high that usually follows a sweep considering my abominable season record, realizing I am still down over 26 units in what has been a disastrous 2023 campaign. Let’s hope this is the beginning of a heater and not a case of two steps forward, two steps back.
There’s only one way to find out, so let’s move on to Week 12 and bust those books!
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Key Stats
- Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers.
- Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
- LA Chargers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games played in November.
There are two injuries of note in this one. The Ravens are entering this matchup without the services of tight end Mark Andrews, who sustained a lower leg injury in the Ravens’ 34-20 Week 11 win over the Bengals.
On the other side of the ball, we see that the Chargers will be without their resident chaos-maker, Joey Bosa, and I would argue that his loss is far more severe to the Bolts than Andrews’ absence is to the Ravens.
Lamar Jackson will benefit immensely without Bosa chasing him around the backfield and now has the luxury of Odell Beckham Jr. becoming more and more acclimated to the offense, posting his highest receiving total of the year last week with 116 yards.
The Ravens have won 5 of their last 6 games and covered in four of them, while the Chargers have dropped their last two games, failing to cash for their ATS backers as well. This is a stellar example of two teams going in different directions.
And more to the point, the Ravens are ranked 3rd in pass defense, allowing just 169 yards per contest, which means Justin Herbert will have his work cut out for him.
The line, as of this writing, is Baltimore -3 ½ (+100) at Bovada but you will never catch me laying a hook on the most important number in football betting. I’d rather lose the extra juice than get banged out by that extra half-point. But that’s me and I’m spending 20 cents to ease my mind.
NFL Pick: Ravens -3 (-120) at Bovada for 4 units
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Key Stats
- Las Vegas is 3-0 against the spread over their last 3 games.
- Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played in November.
- Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Sunday.
You might not be aware of this, but the Eagles have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, yet, they held Patrick Mahomes to 177 yards even though he passed 43 times and completed 24 in Kansas City’s 21-17 loss to Philadelphia on Monday night.
Now the Chiefs have to pack up and head to the West Coast for a date in Sin City on a short week. And we should note that one thing Vegas does pretty well is defend against the pass, currently ranked No. 11 and surrendering 210 yards per game.
The Chiefs have a supremely talented team and arguably the best quarterback in the game, but what they failed to do in the offseason or at the trade deadline is bolster their receiving corps. The best receiver, not named Travis Kelce, is rookie Rashee Rice and he has 420 receiving yards and four touchdowns. That sounds like the stats of a No. 2 receiver on a bad team and a No. 3 on a very good team.
This is a divisional matchup and teams tend to take these games more seriously. The Chiefs may still be gassed from last week’s potential Super Bowl preview with the Eagles and could mail this one in. Also note that the Chiefs are ranked dead last in offense in the second half, having failed to score a touchdown since October 22nd in the final half. Grab the nine and cash a ticket.
NFL Pick: Raiders +9 (-108) at Heritage Sports for 3 units (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Key Stats
- Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
- Tampa Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Indianapolis.
- Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
The Bucs dropped a 27-14 decision to the 49ers last week which was good news for us as we got an early line, San Francisco -11 ½, that allowed us to cash 4 units while others who waited until gameday laid as much as -14 and were on the losing end of that wager. Needless to say, it pays to shop around.
Okay, so I am fading Tampa Bay yet again this week for a few reasons. The Bucs have had plenty of balls bounce their way this season, which is why they are 4-6 on the season and not 2-8. We should also note the Bucs are 31st against the pass, allowing nearly 271 yards per game and, although their run defense is solid, ranked 6th in the league, it is not the same stellar unit that we have seen in recent memory.
This bodes well for the Colts because the Bucs will be keying on Jonathan Taylor, which means Gardner Minshew will be getting longer looks on passing downs. And when the Colts score, it will be tough for the Bucs to keep pace as they are ranked dead last in rushing and 23rd in points scored, averaging 19.2 points per game.
I have little doubt the Colts will score more than three touchdowns and are worth laying the small number here.
NFL Pick: Colts -2 (-115) at Bovada for 2 units
The Woodman’s Corner (4-7 ATS)
Maybe winning is contagious and if it is, the Woodman and I want more of that virus. Last week the man from parts unknown claimed his second consecutive ATS cover when the Raiders kept it within the generous margins in a 20-13 loss to the Dolphins, easily covering as 13-point road pups.
This week he turns his lonely eyes to the Browns, getting a 2 ½ point head start at Mile High, home of the Broncos. Will our caped crusader crush the books yet again this week or will he return to the gloom and doom of handing his hard-earned dinero to the books?
Stay tuned and find out, bookie stompers. Oh, and after buying a quarter of an acre back with his recent winnings, the Woodman can at least bet his share of the farm!
Woodman’s Pick: Browns +2 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports
The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
