NFL Week 12 Swinger’s Best Bets: Another Sweep Week Is on Tap
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Swinging Johnson
- November 21, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Broncos -6 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
After a bumpy start to the season, Swinger is catching fire at the top-rated sportsbooks as the season inches closer to the home stretch. Last week our man swept the board with a 3-0 ATS week and is telling everyone who will listen that there’s nothin’ sweeter than a repeatah’!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 14-18-1 ATS (-15.78 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Vikings vs. Bears and Patriots vs. Dolphins games.
Week 11 Recap (3-0 ATS, +11.00 units)
Finally. A sweep! It’s been a long, frustrating season, and we have had a maelstrom of unexpected gameday injuries and a series of bad beats. But we finally hooked all three of our best bets last week and covered the number in two of three the week before.
That’s right, we are 5-1 against the number over the last two weeks, and this column is suddenly a delight to write. Let’s quickly recap how we made our money last week.
Blowouts, Covers and Cash
The Lions obliterated the Jags and never made us sweat the bet. It was one of the easiest 4 units we’ve ever made, and I wish they were all that easy. For those who didn’t know, Detroit was a 13-point home favorite and cruised to a 52-6 win over Jacksonville, which added 4 units to our bankroll.
The Vikings -6 made us a wee bit uncomfortable, but ultimately, they secured a 23-13 road victory over the Titans and put another 4 units in our collective pockets.
Lastly, the Bills once again defeated the Chiefs in the regular season and covered as one-point home chalk. That put another three units on our side of the ledger for a total of 11 units on the day and a 3-0 ATS mark.
I hope you tailed me last week. If so, and even if you didn’t, nothing would make me happier than to do it all over again. Are you game? Then let’s go!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants
Sunday, November 24, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Daniel Jones is out, and Tommy DeVito is in.
The Giants have been circling the drain for a while and finally realized Daniel Jones was part of the problem rather than the solution. At 2-8 on the season, Big Blue is eyeing a top draft pick in April; therefore, another loss this week wouldn’t be the worst thing that could happen.
However, as bad as you believe Daniel Jones is, he’s got much more natural ability than Tommy D, and that will be evident on Sunday after the Italian Stallion stalls out on his first few drives and all the Tommy hysteria takes the A Train right out of the Meadowlands. DeVito may have a lot of charisma, but he’s physically limited and freezes like a deer in the headlights when confronted by blitzing teams.
From Pass Rush to Big Plays
Speaking of which, guess who blitzes at a high rate? Yup, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Todd Bowles can get very creative against young quarterbacks like DeVito.
The Giants will have to pass because they won’t be able to run against the Bucs’ run defense, which will make the Bucs’ pass rush even slicker.
On the other side of the ball, Mike Evans is expected to return, and if he does, expect him to have a blockbuster game because the Giants’ secondary is dreadful. Moreover, their run-stop unit is equally as heinous, which means they’ll get plenty of Bucky Irving moving the sticks. This will set up the pass for Baker Mayfield to Evans, and then it’s see…you… later!
The Bucs win in a rout.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -5.5 (-114) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 24, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Bookmaker has the lowest line on the Texans as of this writing, but I’m not laying 7.5 and watching the Titans get a garbage time score that will keep them within the margins. Nope, not gonna do it, which is why I’m buying the hook, but the extra juice is causing me to reduce my unit size on this one.
Mismatch in the Making
Okay, let’s not pretend the Titans have a chance in hell here.
As long as CJ Stroud doesn’t blow out his rotator cuff or his linemen don’t tear their collective ACLs on the same play, we should be safe. Stroud didn’t connect very well with the returning Nico Collins last week, but a full week of practice should see these two clicking at a higher rate against a decimated Titans defensive backfield.
The only silver lining for Tennessee is their defensive front, which contains the run fairly well. This will diminish Joe Mixon’s productivity and the Texans’ rushing attack, but it really won’t matter because Stroud will be able to throw at will.
Assuming the Texans don’t become disinterested at the end of the game, this should be a lopsided mismatch.
NFL Pick: Texans -7 (-130) for 3 units buying the 0.5 point at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 24, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Bo Nix is the real deal. He’s the rookie quarterback who was overshadowed by the Big 3 (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye) in April. However, he’s making the Broncos scouting department look like a Mensa club.
In his first meeting against the Raiders, when Vegas’ defense wasn’t decimated by injuries and their resident chaos-maker, Maxx Crosby, was fully healthy and exchanging unpleasantries with Nix’s bodyguards, Nix still tossed for 206 yards and three touchdowns.
That was only the rookie’s fifth game of his professional career. Now that he’s a bit more seasoned, he will feast on the Raiders this week.
Uphill Battle Against Broncos’ Defense
On the other side of the ball, expect Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew to have a long, frustrating afternoon as his protection is porous and the Broncos’ pressure rate is among the highest in the league.
I realize I am Chalky von Chalkowitz incarnate, picking three favorites this week, but I call’em as I see’em. I think Denver is the best of the bunch, and hopefully, my faith in their young quarterback will be rewarded.
NFL Pick: Broncos -6 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (3-8 ATS)
Ugh. This has been a dismal season for the Woodman, and the Raiders plundered any shred of dignity he had left last week as he vowed the Silver & Black would hang within the generous margins the NFL odds were giving us as they traveled to South Beach to catch some Fish.
Well, it turned out that the Fish reeled in the Raiders, 34-19, and sent the Woodman and his acolytes away with only a dream of better days in their hearts and nothing but lint in their pockets.
Still, the Woodman is nothing if not fearlessly loyal to underdogs, and this week he wants you to bet the farm on his beloved Patriots!
Woodman’s Pick: Patriots +7 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
