NFL Week 13 Swinger’s Best Bets: The Chargers Are Electric on Sunday
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Swinging Johnson
- November 28, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Chargers -1 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Our man Swinger has covered in 7 of his last 9 best bets and went 2-1 against the number last week. Let’s see what he’s got in store for us in Week 13 and keep cashing those tickets at the top-rated sportsbooks!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 16-19-1 ATS (-11.68 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 11 Recap (2-1 ATS, +4.10 units)
We had two 4-unit wagers last week, and the first one, the Tampa Bay Bucs, was a no-sweat bet as they cruised past the Giants, 30-7, in hostile territory. The second 4-unit winner came in the late game, as the Broncos weren’t quite as dominant as I thought but still managed to cover the 6-point impost in a 29-19 win and cover as guests of the Raiders in Sin City.
Unfortunately, the Texans dampened what could have been a spectacular day. We dropped 3 units on their uninspiring performance as they lost 32-28 to the lowly Titans. We even paid an extra 20 cents for the hook and bought the line down from 7.5 to 7.
When the dust settled, we picked up 4.10 units on Sunday and are whittling our season deficit to 11.68 units. Let’s keep on truckin’ my babies, and make some cheddah!
Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders Odds
Sunday, December 01, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Northwest Stadium
We have a public overreaction to the Commanders’ stunning 34-26 loss to the Cowboys. Ironically, we’re calling a loss to Dallas stunning, but that’s how bad their season has gone. Conversely, the Commanders have exceeded expectations, thanks in large part to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
However, JD was not himself last week, still dealing with bruised ribs that I am confident will be less tender as he lines up against the Titans.
Titans Overlooked
This is a great spot for Washington because the public has the memory of a goldfish. They know the Titans won and the Commanders lost, which means the masses have buried the Titans to the point where the line has dropped 1.5 points and through two critical numbers (7 and 6) to where it now sits at -5.5.
Count me nearly all in on Washington. The Titans have a depleted secondary, which will get torched on Sunday because Tennessee has one of the worst pressure rates in the league. On the other hand, Will Levis took 8 sacks last week (that’s not a misprint), and he will get similar pressure this week from the Commanders. The man got beat up, battered, and bruised, and he won’t be ready to take more punishment this week. I wouldn’t doubt it if we see him sidelined at some point in the game.
If I was sure Daniels was 100%, this would be a 5-unit play, but I’ve knocked it down to 4 because I have the cojones of a church mouse.
NFL Pick: Commanders -5.5 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
Sunday, December 01, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The Chargers suffered a 30-23 loss to the Ravens last week, and much of that can be attributed to LA’s run-stop unit getting trampled by the likes of Derrick Henry, who rambled for 140 yards over 24 carries for a 5.8 yards per carry average. There was also a long-gainer by Justice Hill, who scampered 51 yards in the fourth quarter that put the game out of reach.
Bolts Set to Dominate
Okay, the Chargers lost against one of the best of the bunch in the AFC and the second-ranked running team in the league, trailing only the Eagles. There’s no shame in that, but I suspect things will change dramatically against the Falcons, a team with a middle-of-the-pack rushing attack but one that relies on Kirk Cousins to move the chains through the air.
There are several reasons why I love the Bolts in this spot, and here are just a few:
- The Chargers’ pass rush will melt the Falcons’ offensive line, taking away their aerial attack.
- The Falcons’ defense is ranked 25th in points allowed, 25th against the pass and 19th defending the run.
- The Chargers own the No. 1 defense in points allowed, surrendering 15.9 points per game.
- LA’s head coach Jim Harbaugh is 10-3 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014, 8-1 ATS in 1 PM East Coast games, and 5-1 ATS after Monday Night Football.
I just don’t see how the Falcons will be able to trade touchdowns with the Chargers and am shocked to see this line as low as it is. The only case that can be made for betting on Atlanta is that they are coming off a bye while the Bolts are working on a short week after their MNF loss to Baltimore.
That’s not enough to sway me. I’m backing the better team at a line I can stomach.
NFL Pick: Chargers -1 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
Sunday, December 01, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Guys and girls, the 49ers are a decimated club whose locker room more closely resembles a MASH unit. Everyone from blindside tackle Trent Brown (ankle) to left guard Aaron Banks (concussion) to right guard Dominick Puni (shoulder). That happens to be 3/5’s of the Niners’ offensive line, and even the quarterback, Brock Purdy, is a huge question mark with a shoulder injury. Even if any of those starters go on Sunday, how effective will they be at less than 100%?
Oh, and I neglected to mention San Francisco’s defense is equally as wounded. Defensive end Nick Bosa (hip), DT Jordan Elliot (concussion), LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (knee), and CB Deommodore Lenoir (knee) are all listed as questionable.
Even Fred Warner admitted he’s been playing with a fractured ankle, and he’s not even listed on the injury report!
Not the Same Super Bowl Squad
Look, just because they’re wearing 49ers jerseys doesn’t mean they are the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year. Sure, when healthy, they’re one of the top five teams in the league, but when those athletes are either not suiting up or are compromised, then it’s a different ballgame.
The Bills might be the best team in the NFL right now, and Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed. He’d love to have another notch on his holster with a big ol’ 49ers logo on it. Despite my enthusiasm for taking advantage of a wounded opponent, I will be less enthused if all of those above play. A few, okay, but all of them going will be a concern for the Bills to cover the number, which is why my unit size is so small (I don’t appreciate the laughter, kids).
NFL Pick: Bills -7 (-110) for 2 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (3-9 ATS)
Ugh. That is precisely the same word I used last week to describe the Woodman’s season, and it’s only gotten worse after he told all who would listen to “Bet the farm” on the woeful New England Patriots last week. In case you missed it, the Patsies were harpooned by the Dolphins, 34-15, and that touchdown head start wasn’t worth a damn.
Well, onward and upward, because unfortunately that’s the only direction Woodman’s season can go. With that said, he’s decided his best bet of the week resides in a road underdog, the Pittsburgh Steelers, as they take on their AFC North rivals from the Queen City—the Cincinnati Bengals.
The farm has been auctioned off, but he still has a rusty pitchfork he’s willing to risk, so take your chance, tail or fade, but isn’t the due factor in play here? The man is due to hit!
Woodman’s Pick: Steelers +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
