Top NFL Pick: 49ers -10.5 (-110) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
The NFL’s Week 14 schedule has a few key divisional rematches we just watched a few weeks ago in Lions-Bears and Seahawks-49ers. We are also looking at a non-conference game between the surging Rams and the Ravens in Baltimore.
We powered through the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review and picked out our top spreads or totals for your Week 14 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Rams Face Major Test in Baltimore
The Los Angeles Rams are back to .500 after a 3-game winning streak after their bye week. They have scored 73 points over the last 2 games, but they will face a much stronger road test when they take on the Ravens (9-3) in Baltimore.
The Ravens are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 42.5 points. We think the over has good value in this matchup.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore’s Unique Offense
The Ravens had their streak of 5 straight games with at least 31 points snapped in a 20-10 win over the Chargers in Week 12. It was the first full game after tight end Mark Andrews was lost to injury, but it’s not like the Ravens struggled to move the ball. They just turned it over on downs twice and had an uncharacteristic, missed field goal by Justin Tucker.
Remember, the Ravens still scored 34 points on the Bengals after losing Andrews to injury on the opening drive. This team is still going to score a lot, and the Rams were getting shredded at times by Joe Flacco, who just joined the Browns. Imagine what Lamar Jackson could do at home following a bye week to prepare for this one.
The Ravens have rushed for over 100 yards in every game this season and Jackson has been completing a career-high 68.3% of his passes. His 7.8 yards per pass attempt is right in line with his 2019 MVP season mark.
The Rams have played mediocre defense this year, but the schedule has also not featured many top offenses. The Rams allowed 43 points in Dallas (several return scores involved) and 30 points to the 49ers earlier this year. The Ravens are built to start another 30-point streak in this one.
The Rams Should Contribute to the Scoring
The biggest fear with picking the over in a matchup like this is that the Rams lay an egg and get blown out. We’ve already seen the Ravens beat Seattle 37-3 and the Lions 38-6 at home this year. Those were NFC teams, and Lamar Jackson has been dominant against NFC teams in his career, which makes sense since he requires experience to play properly given his unique skillset.
But the good news is the Rams have a hot Matthew Stafford going into this one, and he is usually good enough to pass a team into some scoring drives. The only game where the Rams scored fewer than 14 points this year was the 20-3 loss in Green Bay, the game Stafford missed and Brett Rypien started in his place.
Stafford has thrown 7 touchdown passes over the last 2 games, including a solid passing performance (279 yards, 3 TD) against a tough Cleveland defense that has a lot of statistics on par with Baltimore’s defense.
The Pick
The Ravens should win this game at home, but the Rams are playing better and you never know when Baltimore is in the mood to blow another multi-score lead, as they have done 7 times since 2022. We’ll take the over and root for a close one in the 4th quarter.
Score Prediction: Ravens 26 – Rams 18
NFL Pick: Over 42.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Trust a Lion to Beat a Bear?
It was only in Week 11 when the Lions came back to beat the Bears 31-26 in the most improbable comeback of the season. Now we get the rematch, and the Lions are coming off a 33-28 win over the Saints, another high-scoring game where they were the team that nearly blew a 21-point lead this time. The Bears had a bye week.
The Lions are a 3.5-point road favorite, but we are more interested in the total of 41.5 points.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Soldier Field
Week 11 Recap: Lions 31, Bears 26
In Week 11, Justin Fields returned from injury and had one of his better games with 169 passing yards, a touchdown, and 104 rushing yards. He had the Bears leading 26-14 with just over 4 minutes left, but we know the Bears are capable of blowing such a lead.
Jared Goff had a rough day with 3 interceptions and it could have been worse than that. But besides the turnovers, the Lions moved the ball well. They just had to stop giving it away, and sure enough, they did with the game on the line. Goff led back-to-back touchdown drives, and Fields was immediately sacked and coughed up the ball for a safety after Aidan Hutchinson got to him.
The Lions pulled off the rare 12-point comeback win in the final minutes.
Both Teams Prepared for Bad Weather Games
In past years, you might not trust Goff on the road in Chicago in what could be a bad weather game. But the Lions came back to win 31-30 in Chicago last November. They also are built much differently with a great line that can run block for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
That duo has been very good individually, but now we are starting to see them do well together. Both rushed for at least 56 yards against the Saints, and the Lions scored 21 points not even halfway through the 1st quarter. Goff finally avoided the turnovers too.
But the Bears found success on the ground against Detroit too, rushing for a season-high 183 yards in that game with Fields leading the way. He is capable of 100-yard rushing games, and in the next game against Minnesota, the team only scored 12 points on field goals, but we saw the Bears make an effort to get the ball out of his hands faster, which should help against the Detroit pass rush.
The Pick
With the Detroit offense traveling well and having so much success against Chicago, they should hold up their end of the bargain for the over. But the Bears are also capable of scoring well in this game as Detroit has allowed 38, 26, 29, and 28 points since the bye week. Things are trending downward for this defense, but we’ll take advantage and take the over.
Score Prediction: Lions 28 – Bears 23
NFL Pick: Over 41.5 (-115) at Bovada
49ers to Sweep Seahawks and Wrap Up NFC West?
There may not be a clear clinching scenario for the NFC West this Sunday, but a win by the 49ers over Seattle, coupled with a loss by the Rams in Baltimore, would almost guarantee it. The 49ers have bigger goals in mind after demolishing the Eagles 42-19 in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Seahawks had a strong effort in Dallas but still fell short in a 41-35 loss.
The 49ers are a 10.5-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points. We make our best pick for this NFC West rematch from Thanksgiving night.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Week 12 Recap: 49ers 31, Seahawks 13
It helped on their that the 49ers caught the Seahawks on a short week after Geno Smith injured his arm on that Sunday. He did not look 100% for this game, and he only passed for 180 yards and led the offense to 6 points as Seattle’s only touchdown came on a pick-6.
But even with the pick-6, the 49ers won by 18 points. Christian McCaffrey did what he wanted with 119 yards on the ground and 2 more touchdowns. While Smith looked bad for Seattle with his arm, the pass rush also sacked him 6 times.
We’ve also seen the 49ers stifle Smith 3 times last year in a 3-0 sweep. That includes wins by 27-7 and 41-23 margins in the games played in San Francisco like this one will be.
49ers Are Crushing Teams Again
Like the past 2 years, the 49ers are rolling again as the season gets closer to the playoffs. They only scored 17 points each game during a 3-game losing streak, but they are back to crushing teams with at least 27 points in each game since. The defense has also held the last 4 opponents under 20 points.
The Seahawks only had 220 yards against the 49ers in Week 12. You could argue the Seahawks will be better this time with a healthier Geno having extra days off from playing last Thursday. But that Dallas loss also felt like a last stand for this Seattle team that knew its upcoming schedule was brutal and the postseason could be falling out of their grasp.
Smith threw the ball great in Dallas and 35 points still weren’t enough to overcome a hot offense. Now they get another hot offense and a defense that has made life difficult for them in this NFC West.
It’s just not a good matchup for Seattle.
The Pick
It might be an easy pick for a letdown game for the 49ers after their emotional beatdown of the Eagles in Philadelphia. But this team has to understand the position it is in and do its part with another impressive win to all but sew up the NFC West, and more importantly, put pressure on the Eagles in Dallas on Sunday night.
If the 49ers win this game to get to 10-3 and the Eagles lose in Dallas, then all 3 teams are 10-3 with the 49ers having a 2-0 record against them. That is how the 49ers can have the inside track to the No. 1 seed, which it would love to have for the playoffs after going on the road in the NFC Championship Game the last 2 seasons and losing to the Rams (2021) and Eagles (2022).
Seattle has not fared well against San Francisco, and this feels like another big win for the 49ers, the best team in the league right now.
Score Prediction: 49ers 32 – Seahawks 17
NFL Pick: 49ers -10.5 (-110) at Everygame
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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