Top NFL Pick: Eagles-Cowboys Over 53 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 14 schedule has some wrinkles with a Monday night double-header for the first time since Week 3. But the week starts with a Patriots-Steelers game that could have the lowest total in any NFL game in nearly 20 years. Fortunately, Sunday night should be a fun one when the Cowboys host the Eagles in a big NFC East rematch.
We have our top NFL picks for each night of prime-time games in Week 14, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Dallas Does Touchdowns
The Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) are still leading the NFC East and have a win over the Cowboys from earlier this season. No one has repeated as NFC East champions since the Eagles did it in 2001-04, but they have a shot to end that drought, especially by completing the sweep here.
However, the Eagles just lost 42-19 to a dominant San Francisco team, and these Cowboys are also used to blowing teams out this year. But the Cowboys were in a close one last week with Seattle, which they pulled out 41-35 in the end. Dallas is the highest-scoring team in the league at 32.3 points per game, and it was a 40-34 game the last time these teams met in Dallas last season.
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 53 points. We are looking at the over.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Why the Cowboys Should Keep Rolling
After a slow start to his 8th season, Dak Prescott is playing better than ever and is a legitimate MVP candidate for the No. 1 scoring offense in the league. He has 20 touchdowns over his last 6 games, which is something even Dan Marino did not do in his 1984 regular season when he threw 48 touchdowns. Prescott is even more dominant at home where he has led Dallas to at least 27 points in 11 straight games going back to 2022. Only a couple of streaks by the Broncos (John Elway and Peyton Manning eras) are longer in all of NFL history.
Prescott dropped 40 and 41 points on the Eagles at home in the last 2 seasons, as he has 14 touchdowns in 4 games against them in the Nick Sirianni era. This defense is also arguably the worst yet in Philadelphia since 2021. The Eagles currently rank 24th in scoring and have already allowed 5 teams to score at least 28 points this year.
Only the Commanders (30) have allowed more touchdown passes than Philadelphia (27), and Washington has not had its bye week yet. Prescott leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes and might get to 30 in this matchup. He is killing the vertical routes with his receivers as Brandin Cooks has come alive in the last month in this offense, and CeeDee Lamb already had 191 yards in Philadelphia this year.
Again, the Cowboys usually fare better at home too.
Eagles Are Resilient
Not to be outdone, the Eagles usually find a way to decent points under Jalen Hurts, and they are still No. 4 in scoring at 27.4 points per game this year. The Eagles had 34 points in Dallas last year despite starting backup Gardner Minshew for the injured Hurts.
The Eagles are 1-of-4 teams to score at least 28 points against the Cowboys this year. Dallas did not look good defensively against Seattle last week, as Geno Smith was dealing with over 300 yards. Hurts can bounce back from an underwhelming loss against the 49ers. A.J. Brown is still a beast, DeVonta Smith has stepped up, and tight end Dallas Goedert has a chance to return in time for this one to give them that element again, as it has been missing the last month.
A letdown by the Cowboys on defense in a big game would also come as a surprise to no one. That’s kind of the hallmark of Mike McCarthy-coached teams, who usually struggled with main rivals from Seattle and San Francisco when he was the coach of the Packers.
The Pick
Are the island games finally going to start going over? All 3 did in Week 13, and while we can’t count on the Patriots and Steelers to score 21 points on Thursday night, this game should be a blast with MVP candidates and rivals going at it all night. The 28-23 game was already one of the best this year, and given Dallas’ ability to score even more at home, we like the over-to-hit in this one.
NFL Pick: Over 53 (-110) at Bovada
Miami’s Defense to Stifle Rookie Quarterback?
The Dolphins have an explosive offense led by Tyreek Hill’s historic receiving season, but is Vic Fangio’s defense turning the corner too? We may not get the greatest litmus test in this game with rookie quarterback Will Levis, but the Titans just lost a wild 31-28 overtime game against the Colts.
The Dolphins are a 13.5-point home favorite with a total of 47 points. But we are going to look at Tennessee’s team total of 16.5 points.
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
The Titans Have Not Traveled Well This Year
You can predict the over/under for Tennessee’s scoring with 100% accuracy based on where the game was played this season:
- Titans’ points scored in games played in Nashville: 17, 27, 27, 28, and 28.
- Titans’ points scored in games played away from Nashville: 3, 6, 14, 15, 16, 16, and 16.
That includes a 24-16 loss to the Ravens in London. Unfortunately, this game is not going to be in Nashville either. The Dolphins have been hot at home and the Titans are going to have to combat that with their rookie quarterback.
Will Levis has had some moments this year, but he is a rookie and will struggle to sustain drives. His passing success rate is 35.8%, which is only ahead of Zach Wilson (35.4%) of the Jets. You never want to be down at the bottom with the Jets, but Levis does take sacks at a high rate and is completing a league-low 57.8% of his passes.
Levis is looking for big plays, but that could be hard to do against an improved Miami defense that rarely blitzes and is thriving with a high-pressure rate thanks to the pass rush.
Miami’s Defense with Jalen Ramsey
The Miami defense was disappointing to start the season for new coordinator Vic Fangio. But he has definitely seen a big improvement in recent weeks. You don’t want to credit 1 player for it, but the healthy return of corner Jalen Ramsey has been important.
Ramsey has been back for 5 games, and he has only allowed 39.1% of the 23 targets thrown his way to be completed for a paltry 96 yards. He has not allowed a touchdown and he has 3 interceptions in 5 games.
The Dolphins have not allowed more than 15 points in any of the last 3 games. The defense has done so for the last 4 games, as the Chiefs only got to 21 points in Germany thanks to the Tyreek Hill fumble that was returned for a score before halftime. You can factor in the competition for this improvement too, as Miami has faced the Raiders (rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell), the Jets (enough said), and Washington the last 3 weeks. But what is Tennessee with Levis? Exactly.
It also is not a good matchup for Tennessee and Miami has the corners (Ramsey and Xavien Howard) to shut down DeAndre Hopkins, the only consistently reliable receiver that Levis has.
The Pick
When you combine the improved Miami defense at home and the inefficient rookie quarterback on the road, it feels like another team under is going to hit for the Titans.
NFL Pick: Titans Under 16.5 Points (-110) at Bovada
Packers Look to Keep Rolling vs. Giants
The Packers are feeling great about their successor to Aaron Rodgers after Jordan Love shined against the Chiefs in another win. Meanwhile, the Giants are just trying to find a decent starter to replace Eli Manning, who retired in 2019. The Giants have to decide between rookie Tommy DeVito or veteran Tyrod Taylor with the latter returning to practice.
The Giants are a 6.5-point home underdog with a total of 37 points. Whether it’s DeVito or Tyrod, can we trust the over to hit on a Monday for the 2nd week in a row?
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Love Keeps Improving
What a difference some experience makes. Jordan Love has been thriving for the Packers after questions of whether he was worth keeping for 2024 when the team was 3-6. But the Packers are back to .500 and looking for more after wins over the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs.
The Kansas City game was especially impressive for Love. The Chiefs had not allowed more than 24 points all year, but he led the Packers to 27 points on just 7 drives. The Chiefs threw some exotic blitzes at him, and he had answers with some aggressive throws that connected down the field, which was not the case earlier this season for Green Bay.
Love has mobility to run too, and he could scramble against the blitz that the Giants will likely throw at him. But these young receivers are learning right along with Love, and they are having a big impact as well. The Packers are clicking even without top running back Aaron Jones available.
Giants Can Get to 14 Points
As for the Giants, they were able to get to 2-1 in the starts by DeVito, but it is hard to say he is playing that well. He had some points in garbage time in Dallas, he did very well against Washigont’s 32nd-ranked scoring defense, and he used short fields off interceptions to score 10 points in a win against the Patriots, where he took another 6 sacks.
The sacks have been a killer all year for this offense, but they are even more glaring when an inexperienced rookie is taking them. Green Bay’s pass rush has stepped it up too, so that’s not good.
But the Giants have found ways to score at least 16 points on the road 4 times this year. You like to think they could get in that range again in this matchup at home, though MetLife Stadium has a notoriously poor playing surface that will hopefully not claim any more Achilles this season.
The Pick
It is true that the Giants have not scored more than 14 points at home this year. But with the way the Packers have been playing on offense with Love, you just hope the Packers can get to 24 and the Giants can get to 14 to hit this over.
The prospects for this happening look way better now than they did a month ago.
NFL Pick: Over 37 (-110) at Bovada
First to 6 Points Wins in Pittsburgh?
We might be in store for something special here. The Patriots are dead last in scoring at 12.3 points per game and Pittsburgh isn’t far ahead with 16 points per game, which has actually fallen to 13 points per game since offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired.
The NFL has an opening line total set to 30 points, which would be the lowest in a game since the 2004 Bills-Dolphins were at 30.0, a game Buffalo won in heavy wind by a final of 20-13. The Steelers are a 6-point favorite at home despite starting backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky, but is there any under that is too low to not go within this matchup?
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Thursday, December 07, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
The Patriots Are Historically Low Scoring
It is one thing for a team to go 3 straight games without scoring more than 10 points in a single season. A total of 180 teams have done that in the Super Bowl era since 1966. It is also not uncommon for a team to go 3 straight games without allowing more than 10 points in a single season. That has been done 171 times since 1966, including 4 times since 2020.
But it is a whole other thing to go 3 straight games without scoring or allowing more than 10 points. The 1993 Jets are the only other team to do that since 1947, before these Patriots have done it. But at least those Jets were 2-1. The Patriots are the 1st team since the 1938 Cardinals to lose 3 straight games when not allowing more than 10 points. That was before World War II even started.
You knew the Patriots would struggle on the offensive side this year, but this is unbelievable stuff. It doesn’t even matter if it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe at quarterback. The Patriots are doomed on that side of the ball, but maybe the most shocking part is it hasn’t been total offensive futility, as the Patriots have gained at least 250 yards in every game. They have 6 turnovers and missed a game-tying field goal against the Giants in Week 12.
The other part is the defense is not doing this with crazy fumble luck or turnovers. They only have 2 takeaways. They are shutting down the run and making these quarterbacks work for every 1st down.
You would think it would pay off in a win in one of these games, but so far it hasn’t.
Pittsburgh Is Lousy Too
The Steelers are not exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. In fact, the over is 2-10 in Pittsburgh games, the worst rate in 2023. Pittsburgh has gone to halftime with 3 points in each of the 2 games without Matt Canada as coordinator, a bad sign when you consider most of their best play calls are on the opening drive of the game.
Sure, you see the Steelers throw a play-action pass down the seam or in a 2nd-and-1 situation and think they have things figured out without Canada. But then the rest of the game plays out and you can see they are still clueless on what they are doing.
By going to backup Mitch Trubisky this week after Kenny Pickett injured his ankle, the Steelers don’t necessarily lose much. But for this matchup, Trubisky is not good since you can’t give the Patriots turnovers to set up easy scores on short fields. That’s what has been happening to New England during this losing streak, and it also happened to Pittsburgh against Arizona on Sunday with a bad fumble on a low snap to Trubisky in the 2nd half.
Trubisky is also no stranger to throwing picks, and unlike Pickett, you can’t really count on him to deliver a late-scoring drive given the chance.
So, this matchup is not a good one for Trubisky to take over. But even if it was Pickett, you know he’d probably try winning a 13-10 game anyway to hit the under with ease. The clearest way this under gets ruined is by return touchdowns.
The Pick
People are going to say the under is a trap and it will be a 17-14 game like it was when they met in Week 2 last year, with Trubisky losing at home for the Steelers. Maybe that’s the case, but you can always bet on that exact score or point total if you want a big win.
But we think there is truly something unique going on here with New England, and this is an ideal matchup for it to continue, as the Steelers are still bad at scoring points. You can’t even count on a T.J. Watt-forced touchdown for the defense, since he pulled up injured on Sunday and this is a quick turnaround.
Even if the game ends 16-13, that would still hit this under, and that’s counting on these offenses to have 3 scoring drives each, which feels like entirely too many. Embrace the punts, the turnovers, and take the under in a game that might force Al Michaels into retirement.
NFL Pick: Under 30 (+100) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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