NFL Week 14 Swinger’s Best Bets: Don’t Sleep on the Bucs
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Swinging Johnson
- December 5, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Buccaneers -6 (-118) buying a ½ point at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinging Johnson has been absolutely smoking over the last four weeks. Last week he swept the board with his three NFL best bets on Sunday and has now covered in 10 of his last 12 games. Let’s see what Swinger’s got in store for us in Week 14 and keep cashing those tickets!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 19-19-1 ATS (-1.68 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 13 Recap (3-0 ATS, +10.00 units)
After spending the first several weeks of the season trying in vain to string a few winning weeks together, we’ve finally found the magic touch. It’s taken me all this time to figure out who’s who in the NFL this season, but I think I’m on the right track.
Last week we swept with a 4-unit pick on the Chargers as 1-point road faves over the Falcons, and although that one made us sweat a bit, the Bolts came away with a 17-13 decision.
Our other 4-unit winner was so much easier as the Commanders cruised to a 42-19 win over the Titans. If that bet was a license plate, it would be E-Z MUNNY!
The last play of the day was a Sunday night special as we clicked with the Bills -7 for 2 units as they defeated the 49ers 35-10. I wish I had that as a 4-unit job as well, but I get bad mojo when betting against very good teams like the Niners, even if their roster is decimated by injuries and their training room looks more like a MASH unit.
Overall, we won 10 units for the week and are now down just over a unit for the season. What a long, strange trip it’s been, kids. It’s time to move into the black and make the bookies cry.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 08, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
I’m going to be honest with you (because, you know, I usually lie): the Falcons not only impressed me in their 17-13 loss to the Chargers, but they also scared the hell out of me considering I bet the Bolts pretty heavily. I didn’t expect the Falcons to score many points—and they didn’t—but I did expect the Chargers to come hard against a susceptible Atlanta secondary, especially with the rocket-armed Justin Herbert in the pocket.
But the Falcons played solid defense and sacked Herbert a stunning five times. Atlanta also didn’t allow a single Chargers touchdown and held Herbert to a paltry 137 passing yards while LA’s rushing attack was more of a mild affront, gaining only 56 yards against the Dirty Birds.
I mean, that’s impressive. Now, of course, Kirk Cousins tossed four interceptions in that game, but do you really see him coming close to that against his former team, the one he would love to torch, this week? Speaking of his former team, the Vikings blew the Texans out in their first game of the season but since that time have only won by narrow margins.
Oh, and by the way, if you’re impressed by Minny’s five-game winning streak, don’t be; it’s come against the likes of the Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Bears, and Cardinals. And guess what the average margin of victory is against the NFL’s dog pound? A mere 5.4 points per game. Do you think the Falcons are worse than any of those teams? Me neither, yet they’re getting a full six-point head start.
Gimme the road dog here.
NFL Pick: Falcons +6 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 08, 2024 – 1:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
The Raiders will get some love this week simply because they made a game of it against the Chiefs. But the Bucs will give them a dose of reality for several reasons, not the least of which is the critical matchups in the trenches when the Raiders have the ball.
What I’m going to explain here is the primary reason why the Bucs are the best bet on the board this week. Tampa Bay has an excellent run-stop unit. They’re not the immovable object they were a few years ago, but they are still stout, allowing 117 rushing yards per game. But now consider that the Raiders have the worst rushing attack in the league, averaging 78 yards per game.
So, if they can’t run, then they’ll have to pass, right? Well, do you think Aidan O’Connell is going to lift this offense on his herculean shoulders and bring them to the promised land? Yes, he had two long touchdown passes against a disinterested Chiefs team with a very shaky secondary last week. That’s the reason the Bucs aren’t laying north of a touchdown, and I’m here for all of it.
Bucs’ Defense vs. Subpar QBs
Lastly, the Bucs’ pass defense performs very well against subpar quarterbacks. If we harken back to last year, bad quarterbacks who have faced the Bucs include Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), Spencer Rattler, and Tommy DeVito. The Bucs are 6-2 against those QBs, and their defense held them to 14½ points per contest. O’Connell is in this category of quarterbacks; make no mistake.
So, if the Raiders can’t run and they can’t pass, then they can’t score. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield will have Tristan Wirfs protecting his blindside, and he will feast on a lousy Raiders secondary with Mike Evans doing what Mike Evans does.
I’m buying a hook because six is a critical number, and I’d rather burn the additional juice if this game goes south than lose the entire bet if the Bucs win by six because I was too cheap to make the buy.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -6 (-118) buying a ½ point for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 08, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
This might be the biggest mismatch we could dream up. Sure, maybe you can make an argument that the Giants, Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, or Raiders are worse than Carolina. Conversely, you might be able to convince me the Chiefs, Bills, or Lions are superior to the Eagles.
But you get my drift. This is a worst versus first kind of scenario, and the only thing we have to figure out is how focused will Philly be after a seismic road win over the Ravens on Sunday. Will they still be reading their press clippings and overlooking the lowly Cats?
It’s a concern for me, which is why this isn’t a maximum bet. If the Eagles lock on, this will be a blowout, and we won’t have to sweat the bet. But we’re still getting below 13 and 14 points, which are both critical numbers.
I know, I know, I sound like Chalky Von Chalkowitz, and this is an embarrassingly public play. I should be above it, but I’m not, because I think the Eagles want the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and they’ll only get it if they keep winning, so the incentive to stay focused is there.
NFL Pick: Eagles -12.5 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (4-9 ATS)
Finally! My sweep week wouldn’t have been complete if the Woodman didn’t get a cover with his Pittsburgh Steelers. And sure enough, the Steelers not only covered as 3-point road pups in the Queen City but defeated the Bengals outright, 44-38. After wandering in the NFL desert for several weeks, that cover was like an oasis of Avion for the Woodman.
Okay, this week he’s back to grabbing points with the notorious New York Jets. Gang Green will travel to South Beach after a 26-21 loss to the Seahawks and take on the Fish. The oddsmakers are giving the road pups a six-point head start, and my man from parts unknown is telling all who will listen to keep the faith and Bet The Farm!
Woodman’s Pick: Jets +6 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
