Top NFL Pick: Packers -3 (-120) for 4 units at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
Those who stood strong with our man were rewarded as Swinger broke out his broom and swept the bookies into the poor house with a 3-0 sweep last week. SJ has now beaten the books at our main offshore sportsbooks four weeks in a row, as he rises from the ashes of a rough start to the season. Let’s see what NFL odds he has in store for Week 15!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 21-22 ATS (-13.30 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 14 Recap
I write many columns throughout the week but this one is my favorite. My amazing editors here at BMR give me free rein to do whatever I want in my weekly literary sandbox. It’s all me baby, for better or worse.
But I must confess, mustering the energy to get back in the saddle after a tough week is difficult. I bet on the games I select and if I have a losing week, I feel worse for those who tailed than I do for myself. This column is truly a labor of love, but after those down weeks, I can’t say I love it all that much.
However, after a winning week, let alone a sweep, I am champing at the bit to get back at it. Thus, after cashing 4 units on the Bears (+3) over the Lions, under 44 in that game for 2 units, and the Browns (-3) over the Jaguars for 3 units and a total of 9 units in Week 14, I am in a good place today after winning money for the fourth consecutive week.
However, the caveat to all the lollipops and sunshine is that the beginning of the season was so brutal that we’re still underwater, down over 13 units on the season. But we’re crawling back to profitability and I want to thank all of you who read this column every week, tweet at me, or DM me (you know who you are). You make it fun because a ride on a roller coaster is always better with a buddy.
Let’s go make some money!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Key Stats
- Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in December.
- Green Bay is 15-2 SU in their last 17 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
- Green Bay is 16-1 SU in their last 17 games played in December.
They say if you torture the numbers long enough they’ll confess to almost anything. But did you get a load of those last two stats above? I was shocked to learn Green Bay is 16-1 straight up over their last 17 games played in December. And wouldn’t you know it, the Giants ended that streak last week!
Seeing as the Packers’ last December game was a loss to one of the worst teams in football, that 16-1 SU in December stat looks a bit misleading. But it’s not, especially when you also consider they are 15-2 SU over the Bucs in their last 17 meetings when playing at Lambeau.
Forget about last week’s loss to the Giants. Every team has a bad game and the Giants had a little mojo going into it. Speaking of Big Blue, they have a fairly decent pass defense but the Bucs are ranked 30th in that category, allowing over 264 passing yards per game.
Although Green Bay won’t find the sledding easy against Tampa’s run-stop unit, it won’t matter, because Jordan Love is going to be able to have his choice of receivers with which to torch the Bucs’ secondary throughout the matchup.
This is a double-digit Packers win.
NFL Pick: Packers -3 (-120) for 4 units at Everygame
Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Key Stats
- Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Chicago is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Cleveland.
- Chicago is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the underdog.
I loved the Bears last week and I like them again this week. Notice I didn’t say love, but like, because the Browns are mercurial, enigmatic, and a bit baffling to me, which is why I’m dropping my unit count from the four I put on Chicago last week to three units this week.
Look, Cleveland’s Myles Garrett is the stuff of nightmares if you’re a quarterback, but Justin Fields has serious wheels and is elusive enough to mitigate, at least somewhat, his impact. Let’s not forget that earlier this year the Bears’ offensive line was bitten by the injury bug and it subsequently came calling for Fields. But now everyone’s healthy and the Bears are so much better because of it.
Joe Flacco, coming back from the dead as the Brown’s messiah, will see his day of reckoning this Sunday. The Bears have an excellent defense, which was bolstered by the addition of Montez Sweat in the middle of the season. Flacco will be facing a next-level defense than those he torched in his previous two starts.
The public is ga-ga for Jumpin’ Joe Flacco but that emotion has done us a huge favor by giving us a hook on the magical 3 over at Heritage. I don’t know where this line will be when you read this column, but getting 3 ½ on a team that could easily win this game makes this too tempting to ignore.
NFL Pick: Bears +3 ½ (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
N.Y. Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Key Stats
- Miami is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played in December.
- Miami is 0-2 ATS over their last two home games.
- New York’s Zach Wilson threw for a season-high 301 passing yards last week.
True confession time. I am always scared to bet against the Dolphins and perpetually terrified of betting on the Jets. Well, they always say to confront your fears, so now that they’re playing each other, what better time than the present to do so, right?
Okay, so I am turning back on the conventional wisdom from the betting public that the Dolphins are going to be so mad that they lost to the Titans last week that they will take it out on the Jets. While that’s not out of the realm of possibility for this matchup, what we should be focusing on are the injuries that Miami sustained in that loss.
We all know both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle got cracked last game – although both are expected to play on Sunday –, but what many don’t realize is that the Fins’ offensive line took a beating. Center Connor Williams is done for the year with a torn ACL while right guard Robert Hunt is very doubtful with a hamstring injury. Lastly, left tackle Terron Armstead will likely sit again with a knee injury.
The public doesn’t understand or appreciate the importance of offensive lines, which is why this line is dropping rapidly to 8 ½, getting eaten up by the sharps who are pouncing on the road dog here. However, I do and so do you, which means the Jets’ stellar defense will allow Zach Wilson and the New York offense to keep this one within the generous margins.
NFL Pick: Jets +9 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (6-8 ATS)
Last week was perfect for all concerned as the Woodman added to the fun and frivolity by backing America’s Team, the Dallas Cowboys, as 3 ½ point favorites over the Eagles. When the smoke cleared, the Boyz muscled their way to a 33-13 victory over the crew from Philly. The game was never in doubt after the first half with Dallas leading by 18 points. Easy cover for those who believed.
So, what does the Woodman do this week? He goes right back to the same well that fattened his wallet last week – the Dallas Cowboys! That’s right, the Cowboys will be packing up and staring down the Bills Mafia in chilly Buffalo, New York.
When asked for some financial advice pertaining to this investment vehicle, the Woodman stroked his chin, thought a moment, and uttered three simple words – “Bet the Farm!”
Woodman’s Pick: Cowboys +2 ½ (+100) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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