NFL Pick: Eagles-Seahawks Under 47.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 15 schedule has a big game for the AFC playoff race on Sunday night when the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5) host the Baltimore Ravens (10-3) in a rematch of last year’s big Jacksonville comeback win. It is the top prime-time matchup this week, but we also have picks for the rematch of Chargers-Raiders and a battle of NFC teams trying to stop losing slides in Eagles-Seahawks.
We have our top NFL odds for each night of prime-time games in Week 15, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Back to Monday Night Unders in Seattle?
In case you never noticed, Pete Carroll’s Seahawks have played some wild games on Monday Night Football in the last decade. They are usually low-scoring affairs too, and the Seahawks need to keep the scoreboard down against Philadelphia to have a chance to get back to .500 here.
The Seahawks are a 3.5-point home underdog with a total of 47.5 points. Are we back to betting the under on Monday night for this matchup after the over hit the last 3 Monday games?
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks
Monday, December 18, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Lumen Field
The Eagles Did Not Score an Offensive Touchdown in Dallas
Whether it is related to health or defenses catching up to this offense, the Eagles are in a bit of a slump right now. The offense did not manage a single touchdown drive in Dallas and their best-skill players lost 3 fumbles on a bad night in another 20-point loss.
The week before, the Eagles were held to 19 points at home, and even that final touchdown drive reeked of garbage time. Jalen Hurts was averaging 296.2 passing yards per game during a 6-game span earlier this year when A.J. Brown was dominating teams with 125 yards every week.
But over the last 5 games, Hurts is down to 210.4 yards per game, and he has struggled to throw for 200 yards in most of these games against contenders. The Eagles got Dallas Goedert back at tight end against the Cowboys, but it was not a big factor at all.
One problem is the Eagles basically run their passing offense through 3 receivers, and while they are very good players, they don’t seem to bother using anyone else, so it makes the offense more predictable to face than other elite offenses like the Cowboys and 49ers.
Seattle’s defense is not great, but it did at least hold the 49ers at home to 28 points last week. The Eagles have been held to 25 points or fewer in 6-of-7 road games this year.
Drew Lock or Geno Smith?
Geno Smith has been banged up with a biceps and groin injury in recent weeks. The groin injury kept him out of Sunday’s loss to the 49ers, and it was thought to be a 2-week injury, so it is possible he may miss this game as well.
Drew Lock was surprisingly adequate in his place, but the Seahawks still only scored 16 points in the loss. The Seahawks looked amazing on offense against Dallas with Smith having his best game, but that felt like a last gasp for this team as the losses keep piling up and the playoffs look farther away with this tough schedule.
The Eagles are not a good defense at all this year in one of the biggest declines in the league on that side of the ball from 2022. But there is talent on that defense, and someone like Darius Slay or James Bradberry could try matching up with D.K. Metcalf, and the Seattle running game is way too inconsistent right now.
This could be a 24-17 type of game instead of any shootout, as these teams are both in a funk and losing streak right now.
The Pick
None of Seattle’s 5 Monday night games since 2020 have exceeded 40 points. The under is also 3-1 when the Eagles play in prime time this year. Under Nick Sirianni since 2021, the over has only hit 40% of the time for the Eagles on the road, compared to 68.0% at home.
It may be a close game as Carroll loves, but we’ll go with the under, which he also probably loves as a defensive coach.
NFL Pick: Under 47.5 (-110) at Bovada
Trust the Raiders on Defense?
The Las Vegas Raiders just played one of the strangest games in NFL history in a 3-0 loss to the Vikings. Now they get to host a Chargers team that should be without Justin Herbert after he fractured his finger and left Sunday’s loss to the Broncos.
The Raiders are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 33.5 points. Should we trust the Raiders to make life miserable on the Chargers and get a win for interim coach Antonio Pierce?
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Thursday, December 14, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Aidan O’Connell’s Rematch with the Chargers
Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell has not been anything special this year, but he has not been awful enough to lose his job as starter. That could change if he has another shutout loss, but Sunday was just a weird game for the Raiders, who punted 8 times and turned it over 3 more times, including a costly fumble in scoring range by Hunter Renfrow.
But O’Connell gets another shot at the Chargers’ defense that turned his NFL debut in Week 4 into a 24-17 loss. O’Connell almost pulled off a rally despite getting sacked 7 times, but he threw a late pick that was costly. Still, he moved the ball with 238 yards and found his top receivers enough to give the team a chance.
Khalil Mack sacked the rookie 6 times that day, as he often perks up against his former team. But O’Connell has been much better at not taking sacks since that debut game, and he should do a better job of managing the pass rush at home this week. The Chargers still have one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year, but without Justin Herbert to bail them out, O’Connell may not even need more than the 17 points he had last time against the Chargers.
Who Is Easton Stick?
Justin Herbert fractured his index finger on his throwing hand, which could lead to surgery and time off for the quarterback. With such a quick turnaround for a Thursday game, it is hard to imagine he will be able to play this week.
The next man up is Easton Stick, which sounds like a prep school character in a streaming service show rather than a real NFL quarterback. But the Chargers drafted Stick way back in the 2019 draft as a 5th-round pick out of North Dakota State. He has survived multiple coaching staffs and remained on the roster.
He got in last week’s game after Herbert’s injury, and it was the first time since 2020 that Stick appeared in a regular-season game. He was 13-of-24 for 179 yards in the 24-7 loss to Denver.
Stick could have a rough outing against a defense that almost pitched a shutout last week. The Raiders already have 4 home games this year where they held the opponent to 13 or fewer points. Maxx Crosby will be on the hunt for the inexperienced quarterback, who lost 31 yards on a pair of sacks last week.
The Pick
The Raiders are better suited to going on with an inexperienced quarterback than the Chargers are without Herbert. The Raiders should have more of a reliable running game with Josh Jacobs, they have a few proven targets in the passing game with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, and O’Connell has more experience than Stick.
It is also worth noting that interim coach Antonio Pierce is a favorite to earn the full-time job in Vegas, but he cannot afford any more 3-0 losses like last week. Still, it was impressive to hold the Vikings to one little field goal.
In a short week with the Chargers already struggling with Herbert, we think they look even worse without him and will back the Raiders with the points for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Raiders -3 (-110) at Bovada
Are the Ravens Going to Hang on This Time?
You could argue the real turning point for Jacksonville’s 2022 season was the 28-27 comeback win against the Ravens in Week 12. That was Trevor Lawrence’s finest moment, and the Jaguars need their quarterback playing well after losing to the Bengals and Browns the last 2 weeks with Lawrence injuring his ankle against Cincinnati.
The Ravens are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 43.5 points. But, for this matchup, we are going to focus on Baltimore’s first-half team total (over/under 10.5 points).
Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 17, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Ravens’ Fast Starts
The top-seeded Ravens (10-3) rarely mess around this year on the scoreboard. They are 1-of-4 teams to score 200 points by halftime, joining the Cowboys (258), Dolphins (213), and 49ers (201).
Baltimore has scored over 10.5 points in 9-of-13 first halves this year. Things have been better recently as Lamar Jackson gains experience in new coordinator Todd Monken’s offense. The Ravens have been over 10.5 points at halftime in 7 of their last 8 games.
There was concern about how the Ravens would fare without tight end Mark Andrews, but he was injured on the opening drive against the Bengals in Week 11, and in 2-of-3 games since they have topped 34 points and look very strong in the process.
It is true all but one of Baltimore’s 30-point games have been at home this year, but we don’t need a 30-point night to hit this prop. We just need the Ravens to have a combination of scores to get over 10.5 points by halftime, whether it is a pair of touchdowns or a touchdown and a pair of field goals from the reliable Justin Tucker.
Jaguars’ Defense Is Struggling
The reason to feel comfortable with Baltimore doing this is that the Jacksonville defense is struggling right now. The Jaguars gave up 2 quick touchdowns to Cleveland tight end David Njoku last week, and he was basically wide-open in the game. Think the Ravens can scheme plays like that for Isaiah Likely? He had one himself against the Rams last week for a long touchdown.
Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns despite not playing ball until Week 13. Lamar Jackson is having his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign and will be licking his chops to face this defense right now.
In the game before Flacco’s big day, Jake Browning was making his first road start for the Bengals and lit up the Jaguars for over 350 yards and 34 points in an overtime upset win. Browning also had 14 points on the board by halftime, and that was even with the Bengals wasting a quarter by having their quarterback throw behind the line of scrimmage instead of letting him rip it later as he did.
The Jaguars fared better in division games against teams they know better, but they also gave up 13 points in the half to the 49ers in Week 10 before losing 34-3. That was another game that made it look like the Jaguars are not a serious Super Bowl contender and are in a lower tier with teams like the Lions and Dolphins.
Baltimore’s goal is the No. 1 seed and winning this game would go a long way in getting closer to that AFC dominance.
The Pick
Because of the way the Ravens blew a 9-point lead in Jacksonville last year, something they have done 7 times since 2022, we are avoiding the full-game spread. Instead, we’ll focus on the Ravens again executing offensively early in the game and putting up over 10.5 points by halftime.
NFL Pick: Ravens 1st Half Total Points Over 10.5 (-115) at Bovada
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