Top NFL Pick: Steelers +2.5 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
With college football on break, the NFL has a special Saturday tripleheader in Week 15. The Vikings are looking for points in Cincinnati, the Steelers are on a rough losing streak as they go to Indianapolis, and the game of the day could be at night when Detroit hosts a surging Denver team.
We have our top NFL picks for each game of the Saturday tripleheader, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
Is Jake Browning the Real Deal?
Backup quarterbacks are popular with fans until they start showing you why they were the backup and not the starter. Joshua Dobbs has already experienced that twice this year with Arizona and Minnesota. But Cincinnati may be onto something with Jake Browning, who impressed again in a 34-14 win over the Colts.
The Bengals are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 39 points. Can the Bengals keep winning with Browning and keep their playoff hopes alive?
Browning’s Success
In a league starved for good quarterbacks after so many have retired in recent years, Jake Browning could be one of those great stories of an undrafted player a la Tony Romo or Kurt Warner. While he may never reach those highs, his last 2 starts for the Bengals are impressive stuff.
Browning has led the Bengals to 34 points in back-to-back wins over AFC playoff contenders. He’s completed 82% of his passes, 314.5 yards per game, a 119.2 passer rating, and he’s rushed for 2 touchdowns. He also has taken only 2 sacks in these games, and sacks are always a sure-fire way to beat the Bengals when Joe Burrow was starting.
Browning may prove to be fool’s gold or a one-year wonder in line with Case Keenum (2017 Vikings), but not many quarterbacks have had the kind of 2-game run he’s on right now. Of the ones who have, a multiple-time Pro Bowl starter is usually the lowest bar those quarterbacks have in their careers. Many end up in the Hall of Fame.
Let’s not jump to crazy conclusions, but it’s very encouraging that Browning is playing this way with the Bengals still having a shot at the playoffs. Delivering at home in this game to get to 8-6 would be another case of trusting Browning to be the real deal.
Is Minnesota’s Offense a Mess?
Kevin O’Connell is an offensive-minded coach who has had a lot of success for the Rams and Vikings in recent years, but these last 2 games have been quite the trip. He had to endure the 4 interceptions that Joshua Dobbs threw in a 12-10 loss to the Bears at home, then he watched his team go scoreless deep into the 4th quarter in another indoor game in Las Vegas.
It would be one thing if the Vikings were outdoors in December weather in Minnesota for these games, but they were both played in pristine conditions and yet they couldn’t score much at all. It took a benching of Dobbs for Nick Mullens to get the job done.
Should Mullens start this week? Probably, if Dobbs is going to be a punt machine to avoid being a turnover machine. Weird that he seems to have gotten the worse the more he’s learned the offense. It usually is the opposite.
Mullens has experience from his days with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, but he is basically a system player with limited ability to do anything when the play breaks down. But he can make the right reads and get the weapons and the ball, and the Vikings have weapons.
But Mullens is also 5-12 as a starter and generally lousy with the game on the line, last week withstanding. The Bengals are an opportunistic defense with takeaways, and while they give up plays and yardage, they can clamp down and keep the scoreboard low. The Bengals have held 5-of-7 home opponents under 20 points this year.
The Pick
In a battle of backup quarterbacks, I am taking Browning over anyone the Vikings want to put on the field that’s not named Kirk Cousins. Browning has shown a good ability to get rid of the ball on time to his talented playmakers, and they are actually thriving right now with 34 points in back-to-back games. The Vikings are in a scoring funk and the Bengals should be able to cover this spread at home and continue their playoff push.
NFL Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110) at Bovada
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 04:30 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Can the Steelers Regroup in Indy?
This might be the darkest moment in Mike Tomlin’s tenure after his Steelers just lost back-to-back home games to 2-win teams. The worst part is the Steelers were outclassed by the Patriots and Cardinals and neither loss was a fluke. Now they must face an Indianapolis team that usually scores 20 points, but it did not in Cincinnati last week in a mistake-filled loss.
The Steelers are a 2.5-point road underdog with a total of 42 points. Can Pittsburgh rally on the road and get back on track in the AFC wild card race?
Is Mitch Trubisky the Right Quarterback in This Matchup?
The Steelers had enough problems against the Cardinals and Patriots to think having a healthy Kenny Pickett wouldn’t have changed those outcomes. But in the New England matchup, going to Mitch Trubisky did have some negative consequences for Pittsburgh.
There are literally two things that Pickett is good for: limiting turnovers and pulling off clutch scoring drives to win games. Trubisky is bad in both areas, as he is a turnover machine and he has a putrid 5-19 (.208) record when trailing by 1 score with the ball in the 4th quarter or overtime. Pickett is 6-4 (.600) in such situations.
What did Trubisky do against the Patriots? He had an awful interception that set up a short field and a touchdown for the Patriots, and he was terrible on the game-tying drive attempt, throwing deep on 4th-and-2 with the game on the line.
It is going to be Trubisky again as Pickett’s ankle is still recovering. Does he fare better against the Colts? This is a more ideal opponent since the Colts struggle on defense and lack a mastermind like Bill Belichick, who capitalizes on mistakes by bad quarterbacks. The Colts just got lit up by Jake Browning and even rookie Will Levis hung 28 points on them the week before.
As for finishing the game, sure, that could be a problem for Trubisky if he has to lead them back on a final drive. But the goal is for the Steelers to play better in this matchup and not have the game come down to that like they did in Carolina last year when Trubisky started a win and led a 12-minute touchdown drive in the 2nd half to give the Steelers a big edge.
The Steelers have to lead with defense and just hope Trubisky doesn’t screw things up with his turnovers.
Will T.J. Watt Return to Terrorize Gardner Minshew?
There was a controversial concussion incident with T.J. Watt in last Thursday night’s game against New England. He was injured on the 1st play, left the game very briefly before returning to play 91% of the snaps, and he switched to a visor at one point. A day later, he was in the concussion protocol, so it definitely looks like someone messed up and allowed him to play with a concussion.
Hopefully, he will clear the protocol by Saturday because this is a must-have game for the Steelers and a great opportunity for Watt to cause havoc against Gardner Minshew, who has lost a handful of fumbles this year on strip sacks.
The Steelers need that big turnover play from their star, but more than anything, they need him to play. Since 2017, the Steelers are 2-12-1 when Watt doesn’t play more than 50% of the snaps in a game, including games he missed entirely.
The Pick
The Colts have not been running the ball well these last 2 weeks without Jonathan Taylor. Minshew is always up for some turnover mischievous. Trubisky has to know he’s running out of chances before fans start chanting for Mason Rudolph to replace him. This has a classic bounce-back game for Tomlin written all over it. He is much better as an underdog than a big favorite.
Since 2007, Tomlin has covered 62.5% of the time as an underdog, the best record in the league in that time. But as a favorite, Tomlin only covers the spread 47.3% of the time, which ranks 19th since 2007.
We’ll take the Steelers to cover and possibly even win outright in this one.
NFL Pick: Steelers +2.5 (+100) at Bovada
Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions
Saturday, December 16, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Ford Field
Surging Broncos Take Down Declining Lions?
After a 1-5 start, the Broncos (7-6) are only a game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. The Lions (9-4) once had a big lead in the NFC North, but they are in danger of losing it after a rough month.
The Broncos are a 5-point road underdog with a total of 46.5 points. Is Denver ripe for an upset pick?
Detroit’s Declining Defense
We knew the Lions were one of the best offensive teams in 2022, but it was the defense that held them back from making the playoffs. That was supposed to change this year to help Dan Campbell win the division. For the early part of the season, things were working out as planned as the offense was still very good, and the defense was at least average.
But ever since the Ravens dropped 38 points on the Lions in Week 7, things have rarely looked good for the Detroit defense. In fact, since Week 7, the Lions have allowed 201 points, the 2nd-highest total in the league in that time.
It’s almost like the Lions are back to playing the worst defense in the league like they did in 2022. The pass defense is struggling to cover receivers, the pressure is not getting there for sacks, and the run defense has been chewed up too.
This is a bad time of year to be falling apart defensively with the playoffs coming. But Detroit has to think about winning this matchup before those big ones with Minnesota come to decide the NFC North.
Denver Can Turn the Lions Over
If these teams are moving in opposite directions, it’s the defense failing for Detroit and the defense stepping up with turnovers for Denver. It feels like eons ago when the Broncos were allowing 70 points in Miami and Justin Fields had a perfect half. The defense has really improved since then, and forcing a ton of takeaways is the key to that.
The Broncos are tied with Jacksonville in forcing a league-high 24 takeaways. They have recovered a league-high 13 fumbles, which are usually flukier and more random than getting interceptions, but the Broncos continue making these plays. Denver has 17 takeaways since Week 8 alone, which was the upset win over the Chiefs that really got this team on track with its confidence.
What have we seen the Lions do at times this year? They turn the ball over. Detroit already has 5 games with at least 3 turnovers and all but one of those games was at home. So it’s not like the team has an indoor-outdoor problem. They just play sloppy offense at times, and Jared Goff has struggled with fumbles (Green Bay loss) and interceptions (Chicago games) this year.
Can a good Denver secondary force Goff into some picks? Absolutely. Can Russell Wilson and the offense turn those into touchdown drives on short fields? That’s exactly why this team is 7-6 and still alive for the playoffs after a 1-5 start.
The Pick
To Detroit’s credit, it has not lost back-to-back games yet this season. But the performances against Chicago were ugly and they were fortunate to not get swept by that team. They played poorly in their last home game on Thanksgiving against Green Bay, and they even flirted with blowing a 21-point lead in New Orleans in Week 13.
Since their Week 9 bye, the Lions have not beaten any team by more than 5 points and have allowed every opponent to score at least 26 points. Denver has not lost a game by more than 5 points since Week 6.
We’ll trust Sean Payton’s team to deliver on the road and make things difficult for the Lions again. This does not feel like the Saturday game that should have the largest spread. If anything, it feels like the most likely upset.
NFL Pick: Broncos +5 (-105) at Bovada
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