NFL Week 15 Swinger’s Best Bets: A Rare 5-Unit MAX BET on Tap
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Swinging Johnson
- December 12, 2024
NFL Pick: Jets -3 (-120) for 5 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Swinger has been covering like a man possessed, but last week saw his first losing week in well over a month, despite his top play hitting. SJ has a rare 5-unit maximum bet on tap in Week 15, so let’s see what he’s got!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 20-21-1 ATS (-4.22 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Steelers vs. Eagles and Packers vs. Seahawks games.
Week 14 Recap (1-2 ATS, -2.54 units)
I loved the Bucs last week, and they loved me back, defeating the Raiders 28-13 and, more importantly, covering as 6-point home chalk. It was a 4-unit win for the good guys but unfortunately, the good times stopped rolling after that.
My pair of 3-unit plays went south when the Falcons melted like butter in a blast furnace down the stretch of their 42-21 loss to the Vikings as 6-point road dogs while the Eagles slept-walked through their 22-16 win over the Panthers, but came up short at the betting windows as 12.5 point home chalk.
All in all, we went 1-2 ATS and dropped 2.54 units to the bad man. Let’s get back to the sizzling streak we were on and make that money!
Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, December 15, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
The Commanders are on the road, and I’m laying a touchdown. Can you imagine writing those words in years past? Well, Jayden Daniels is that good, and he’s coming off a dominating performance in which he was nothing short of surgical, going 25-of-30 for 206 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-10 thrashing of the Titans.
Oh, and the Commanders’ rushing attack in that contest was akin to an M1 Abrams tank driving over a picket fence. Brian Robinson led a relentless ground-and-pound attack that chewed up a stunning 267 yards and three touchdowns.
But wait, there’s more! Let’s bullet them, shall we?
- The Commanders are coming off a bye.
- They’re playing a Saints squad decimated by injuries, which will likely be missing Derek Carr.
- The Saints are 0-3 straight up and against the number without Carr this season.
- Marshon Lattimore could make his debut with his new team and play against his old team that traded him at the deadline.
- Jayden Daniels is as healthy as he’s been all year, and is returning to his college home state of Louisiana where he won the Heisman with Louisiana State University, aka LSU.
Playing It Safe
Look, we’re still laying a touchdown on the road so I’m not really proud of myself for betting like Chalky Von Chalkowitz but here’s one last consideration. Either the immortal Jake Haener or the illustrious Spencer Rattler will likely be under center and when the latter subbed for Carr when he was out, the Saints offense produced an average of 15 points per game.
I like the Commanders in a big way but I’m buying the hook so I don’t become the victim of a backdoor cover by the hometown Saints.
NFL Pick: Commanders -7 (-118) for 3 units buying a 0.5 point at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 15, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Huntington Bank Field
The Chiefs are 12-1 and have the best record in the league, but are you feelin’ it? Are you? Well, I’m not, even though Patrick Mahomes still manages to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on the daily. But consider that KC’s +/- is +56 in point differential which is 11th in the league and No. 15, the Cincinnati Bengals, is +2 before that metric shows a negative differential.
And if you’re a trend kinda guy or gal, then consider that although the Chiefs have won 5 of their last 6 meetings against the Browns, Cleveland has covered in 5 of those 6 contests. And let’s also not ignore the painfully obvious fact that the Chiefs have failed to cover in their last 7 games!
Yes, Cleveland’s Jameis Winston scares the hell out of me. He can as seamlessly go deep and hit his man in stride as he can throw a strike into the welcoming arms of an opposing cornerback. He’s like the male version of Sybil (1976 film for you young’uns) but I think he’ll feast on a lackluster Kansas City offense and because the Browns won’t gain much traction against a stout KC run-stop unit, Winston will be flinging early and often.
Let’s grab the live home pup in this one.
NFL Pick: Browns +4 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 15, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
I know we are all relishing in the schadenfreude derived from the Jets’ misery this season. The only thing more unlikeable than the team is the fanbase. They’re like the loudmouths at a barroom who insist they know everything about everything but never tip the bartender and make everyone just a little bit stupider than they were before they entered.
I need to stop tiptoeing around my emotions and just come right out and tell you how I really feel, right? Therefore, as much as I’d love more misery to rain down upon the Jets, they’re out of the playoffs which is good enough for me. But, truth be told, they also looked pretty decent in a 32-26 overtime loss last week against the Dolphins.
Aaron Rodgers didn’t face much of a pass rush against Miami, and he looked better than he has all year because of it. The 41-year-old tossed a touchdown pass and connected on 27-of-39 passes for 339 yards. And if you think he looked good last week then he’ll be the Aaron Rodgers of old against the Jags, who generate the second least amount of quarterback pressure in the league.
From Toilet Bowl to Letdown
The Super Bowl will be played in February but the Toilet Bowl was played last week when the putrid Jaguars defeated the woeful Titans, 10-6. You’re sorry you didn’t buy tickets to see that one, aren’t you?
Don’t be surprised if this is a letdown game for the Jags who snapped a five-game skid with those 10 points last Sunday. As for the Jets, they’re due for a win and I’ve got a number (-3) at Bovada that I can live with while every other shop on this Wednesday night has 3.5, a hook that could cost you some dough-re-mi if this is a tight one. I don’t think it will be, which is why this is a rare 5-unit max bet for me!
NFL Pick: Jets -3 (-120) for 5 units at Bovada
The Woodman’s Corner (4-9-1 ATS)
If you’re a bettor but you’re not a shopper, then you’re a sucker. Sorry to be blunt but every half-point matters and if you don’t shop around at the top-rated sportsbooks then you’re just cheating yourself. Case in point is the Jets’ 32-26 loss to the Dolphins. Those who didn’t shop around early got +5.5 while those who picked the best available early line, like my boy the Woodman, got +6. That’s the difference between a loss and a push.
But if you waited a bit later in the week there were shops dealing the Jets at +6.5 but we don’t have the luxury of waiting on late lines as we get published on Thursday. Thus, the Woodman pushed it real good with the Jets, no blood, no foul, but unfortunately, no money.
This week he’s going back to the Big Apple but this time with Big Blue, truly the most atrocious team in the league, but getting a 16-point head start makes those pigs look pretty purty in the Woodman’s eyes. Speaking of pigs, he says, “Bet the Farm on the G-Men over the Ravens!”
Woodman’s Pick: Giants +16 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
