Top NFL Pick: 49ers -5.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL has a special Christmas tripleheader this Monday to close Week 16. We’ll see division games early in the day with Raiders-Chiefs and Giants-Eagles, then the night game is a stellar matchup between the odds-on Super Bowl favorites right now with the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers.
We found our favorite NFL odds for Monday’s lineup in Week 16, and you can always find them at offshore sportsbooks.
Chiefs Have Another Clean Performance in Them?
The Kansas City Chiefs have only played in 1 game this season where neither team turned the ball over, and it was their 31-17 win over the Raiders in Week 12. The Chiefs played 1 game in 2022 with neither team having a turnover and it was their 30-29 win over the Raiders at home in Week 5.
The Chiefs are struggling again with turnovers this year with a minus-8 differential, and the Raiders just beat the Chargers thanks to 5 takeaways. But the Chiefs have usually done very well against the Raiders in the Patrick Mahomes era.
The Chiefs are a 10-point home favorite with a total of 42.5 points. We are focusing on the spread.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, December 25, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Week 12 Recap: Chiefs 31, Raiders 17
Kansas City has looked more vulnerable than ever this season, and Week 12 was another one of those troublesome times after the Raiders jumped out to a 14-0 lead behind rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
The theme for the Chiefs had been struggling offense and elite defense in 2023, but that was threatened that day, as this rookie was leading a dominant attack that piled up 221 yards of offense on just 3 drives to start the game. If not for a missed field goal, the Raiders would have been up 17-0.
But Kansas City defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, has been credited for his adjustments over the years, and he did a fine job this time, as the Raiders had 3 points on their final 7 drives. Five of the 7 drives failed to gain more than 13 yards, and the Raiders ended the game turning it over on downs twice in a 14-point loss, as the Chiefs got their offensive feet under them.
While the team was slow out of the gate, it finished strong, ending its 3-game drought of not scoring a single point after halftime. The Chiefs scored 17 points after halftime in this one, including a 39-yard touchdown by rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice.
Mahomes completed a season-high 79.4% of his passes in this game. But he is used to big days against the Raiders.
What Changes This Time?
We’ll see how the Raiders adjust, as interim coach Antonio Pierce was the coach in Week 12 when these teams met. He has had spotty results with a 3-0 loss at home to the Vikings before blowing out the Chargers, who looked like they quit on their fired coach Brandon Staley, in a 63-21 game last week. Going from 0 points to 63 points in 4 days is insanity, but that was the turnovers and lack of motivation that killed the Chargers.
O’Connell threw 4 touchdowns last week, but he still has a lot to prove as a rookie. The Chiefs struggled to pressure him and did not get any takeaways last time, but they could be due for some turnovers in this matchup at home in one of the loudest stadiums.
The Chiefs haven’t hosted a subpar opponent since Weeks 6-7, when they beat their AFC West rivals from Denver (19-8) and Los Angeles (31-17) by double digits. This is the kind of matchup where they excel, and they are hoping to get running back Isiah Pacheco back after he missed the last 2 games. They are also reportedly open to playing wide receiver Richie James more snaps, which hopefully means fewer for mistake-prone receiver Kadarius Toney. The latter had another dropped pass result in an interception last week.
If the Chiefs can clean up those little mistakes, they should be fine.
The Pick
The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS as a favorite of at least 8.5 points this season. Unlike last year, most Kansas City wins are by a full touchdown or more this season. The Chiefs did a great job bouncing back from 14-0 down last time against this team, and they have a great chance of playing another clean game at home with their best running back available and hopefully fewer snaps for Toney.
We’ll go with the Chiefs to cover another big spread in the AFC West.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -10 (-110) at Bovada
Can Eagles Continue Mastery of the Giants?
This is oddly late in the year to see the 1st divisional matchup of the year between these teams, but it wasn’t until Week 14 in 2022 that the Giants and Eagles met. The Eagles ended up going 3-0 against the Giants, beating them 38-7 in the divisional round.
The Eagles get their first look at rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito, who was all the rage after beating the Green Bay defense, but he was sacked 7 times against the Saints in a 24-6 loss.
The Eagles are a 10.5-point home favorite with a total of 43.5 points. We are looking at the spread, which looks large for a team reeling on a 3-game losing streak like the Eagles.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, December 25, 2023 – 04:30 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Eagles Need an “Easy” Matchup
The Eagles were always going to be heavily tested by their schedule. They were 7-1 when the schedule was light, but that 5-game stretch against Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas rematch was always going to be the tale of the season to see if this team was still a Super Bowl favorite or not.
The Eagles went 3-2 on that stretch, but they needed double-digit comebacks after halftime to beat the Chiefs and Bills. They also needed some improbable things, like a 59-yard field goal in the rain to get to overtime with Buffalo, and the Chiefs dropped a go-ahead touchdown pass (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) late in the Monday night game.
While Philadelphia’s record was 10-1, its scoring differential was not impressive at all and the slow offensive starts, combined with regression on defense, always looked like a formula for disappointment in the near future.
Disappointing Defeats and Shifting Fortunes
Sure enough, the Eagles were completely outclassed in back-to-back 20-point losses to the 49ers and Cowboys. But going to Seattle was also going to be a tough trip, as Pete Carroll always gets that team ready to play in prime time, especially at home.
The Eagles were the better team for most of the game, but they blew a 10-0 lead. Jalen Hurts was possibly playing with the flu, the defense gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive to Drew Lock after the 2-minute warning, and Hurts threw a game-ending interception when he had time to set up a long field goal.
It was an ugly way to lose a game the Eagles should have won, and they needed to win if they wanted to get another No. 1 seed. Now the NFC East title is back up for grabs with Dallas (10-4) having the same record again.
But the Eagles need a little rest and a home game with a team they wiped the floor with last year.
Giants Should Struggle to Score
Undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito has done some impressive things for the Giants this year. He threw for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns against Washington, proving he can light up the worst-scoring defense in the league. That’s still an impressive feat when you consider what the Giants looked like on offense the rest of the season.
DeVito also had a brilliant game against the Packers, becoming the only quarterback to complete over 80% of his passes, run for 70 yards, and have no sacks or interceptions in a game.
But the “no sacks” part of that is the most incredible, because DeVito is a sack machine. His sack rate is 17.9% this season, which is absurdly high. The Giants have a poor line and their quarterbacks have all been sacked at a grotesque rate this year, but DeVito’s inexperience and reliability on his mobility have really made him a target for defenses.
DeVito has taken 16 sacks in his last 2 road games, including 7 sacks in last week’s 24-6 loss to the Giants. The Eagles were the defense with 70 sacks last year, and that pass rush has really declined this year. But playing DeVito possibly twice in the coming weeks could help those numbers get back up there.
The Pick
Maybe conventional wisdom would be to bury the Eagles for the season and go with the Giants to cover the large spread against a divisional rival it’s had some success against over the years (just not in 2022).
But we are going contrary to that and predicting the Eagles play their best game in a long time since they are finally not playing a legitimate playoff contender, let alone a Super Bowl favorite.
The Giants are a poor offense with a broken offensive line. Hurts will hopefully be over his illness come Monday, and the Eagles usually excel at home under Nick Sirianni. Maybe his message is getting stale, but we are going to trust this team to look the part of a top contender again in this game.
NFL Pick: Eagles -10.5 (-110) at Bovada
Ravens vs. 49ers: Super Bowl Preview?
It feels like Super Bowl 58 should be a rematch of an old Super Bowl matchup, but could it be a repeat of 2012 when the Ravens beat the 49ers?
This game could be a repeat of 2019 when the Ravens were a 5.5-point home favorite against the 49ers and won 20-17 on a field goal on a wet field. Both teams finished with the No. 1 seed that year, but the Ravens lost their 1st playoff game while the 49ers lost to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
This time around, the 49ers have home-field advantage, they are a 5.5-point favorite, and there hopefully won’t be rain on Monday night. But the Ravens have an offense that travels well, and Lamar Jackson will have to be as good as possible to beat this San Francisco juggernaut that has won 6 straight games by 12 points, the 1st team to do so since the 2009 Saints.
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Monday, December 25, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
49ers Keep Rolling
We really have to start looking at this San Francisco team in historical terms. What makes the team so hard to beat is the roster is so elite on both sides of the ball. They are consistent, and they have basically been unbeatable when healthy since Brock Purdy took over last year.
Of course, Purdy was injured on the first drive in the NFC Championship Game loss in Philadelphia. When the team had a 3-game losing streak this year, they missed a game-winning field goal against the Browns, and then they lost the games to the Vikings and Bengals where Deebo Samuel and left tackle, Trent Williams, were out. Those guys returned after the bye, and Purdy also recovered from the concussion he suffered in Minnesota, and the team hasn’t come close to losing since.
But just look at all the categories the 49ers have a shot to finish No. 1 in by season’s end:
- No. 1 scoring offense (currently No. 3, 16 points behind Miami)
- No. 1 scoring defense (currently No. 2, 9 points behind Baltimore)
- Fewest giveaways (currently tied for No. 1 with 12 giveaways)
- Most takeaways (currently tied for No. 1 with 25 takeaways)
- The league’s rushing champion (Christian McCaffrey is 324 yards ahead of No. 2)
- Brock Purdy currently leads all quarterbacks in touchdown passes (29), yards per attempt (9.9), passer rating (119.0), and QBR (76.0).
Purdy is the odds-on favorite for MVP. McCaffrey has taken over as the odds-on favorite for Offensive Player of the Year. Kyle Shanahan might need to get Coach of the Year when you consider how dominant and consistent he has been this year.
This team has been fantastic, and they got another shot in a nationally televised game to shine against another major contender this year. We have already seen the 49ers prevail in such games, winning big over Dallas (42-10) and Philadelphia (42-19).
Ravens Have More Question Marks
The Ravens (11-3) are no doubt having their own special season with the best record in the AFC. They are one of the more formidable scoring teams with 27.4 points per game, and they are still No. 1 in scoring defense with a slight edge over the 49ers.
But while the point spread would normally be around 3 points in a big matchup like this between the odds-on favorites for the Super Bowl, this spread is a bit larger (5.5) to adjust for how great the 49ers have been, and how the Ravens have been a bit shakier since Week 10, the day they blew a 2-touchdown lead against Cleveland in a 33-31 loss.
We have seen the Ravens lose some key pieces to injury, including left tackle Ronnie Stanley, tight end Mark Andrews, and now running back Keaton Mitchell (torn ACL). They had to sneak out a 37-31 overtime win on a punt return touchdown to beat the Rams, who got a big game from Matthew Stafford.
Even in Baltimore’s last 2 prime-time wins on the road against the Chargers (20-10) and Jaguars (23-7). They won both games by double digits, but we also clearly saw it was the turnovers, missed field goals, and terrible clock management (by Jaguars) to blow those games. The Ravens did not look like a scoring juggernaut in either game.
While Lamar Jackson has climbed the MVP odds list to No. 2 behind Purdy, it would be facetious to think his season has been at that level. Also, Jackson’s first 9 games were noticeably better as a passer than his last 5 games, and we see him starting to lean on the run more.
- Lamar Jackson (Games 1-9): 71.5% complete, 217.1 passing yards per game, 48.9 rushing yards per game, 9 TD, 3 INT, 100.8 passer rating, 7.72 YPA.
- Lamar Jackson (Games 10-14): 57.4% complete, 230.2 passing yards per game, 60.2 rushing yards per game, 8 TD, 4 INT, 89.1 passer rating, 7.78 YPA.
Meanwhile, Purdy has only gotten stronger and more efficient since the bye week. In the last 6 games, Purdy has completed 71.9% of his passes with 17 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a stunning 138.1 passer rating.
The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in every win this season. They also have not allowed more than 16 points at home in all but one game, the 31-17 loss to Cincinnati that saw Joe Burrow pick them apart with his best game of the year. We are having doubts about Lamar having that kind of dominant performance in this one on the road.
The Pick
The 49ers have yet to win a game by fewer than 7 points this year. Both teams love to control games early and rarely trail or need to come back late, so it should be fun to watch who jumps out to a solid lead in this battle of the top 2 scoring defenses.
But the 49ers are playing better on both sides of the ball, they have the better roster, and they are home. We’ll go with the team chasing so much history to win by at least a touchdown for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 49ers -5.5 (-115) at Bovada
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