NFL Pick: Under 34.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 16 schedule begins with a key NFC matchup on Thursday night between the New Orleans Saints (7-7) and Los Angeles Rams (7-7) with both teams seeking the playoffs. The Sunday night game is Bill Belichick’s Patriots heading to one of the only places he has a poor record in Denver to take on Sean Payton and the Broncos.
We have our top NFL odds for both of those nights of prime-time games in Week 16, which you can always find at the best offshore sportsbooks.
Broncos Finally Back Home
The Denver Broncos will be glad to have a home game after 3 games on the road where they went 1-2. During Denver’s 5-game winning streak, the team was home for 4-of-5 games, and Mile High is notoriously a tough place to play as even Bill Belichick has a losing record there (5-7) with New England.
The Broncos are a 6-point home favorite with a total of 34.5 points. We are looking at that under.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High
New England’s Lousy Offense
Have the Patriots been better on offense since benching Mac Jones for Bailey Zappe? That is hard to say since some of Zappe’s worst stats came in games where he came off the bench, including the 10-6 loss to the Colts in Germany, where Zappe threw that hilarious fake spike interception to end the game.
But the numbers do not favor Zappe outside of the fact that he threw 3 touchdown passes in one half against Pittsburgh, which was barely enough to hang on for the win.
- Mac Jones: 64.9% complete, 6.1 yards per attempt, 43.3% success rate, 77.0 passer rating, and 36.8 QBR.
- Bailey Zappe: 60.2% complete, 5.8 yards per attempt, 35.3% success rate, 73.9 passer rating, and 26.7 QBR.
You can see why the Patriots are averaging a league-low 13.3 points per game. We talk about Denver using turnovers to start on short fields, but the Patriots wouldn’t have broken 14 points in their last 7 games if it wasn’t for having touchdown drives start inside the opponent’s 30 against Miami, Washington, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City.
If the Broncos can protect the ball, they should hold the Patriots to a low-scoring number, as last week in Detroit was hopefully an aberration against a great, multi-faceted offense. Denver only has more than 1 giveaway in 1-of-8 games since Week 7.
Broncos Still Turnover Dependent
We are used to seeing Sean Payton-coached teams light up the scoreboard, but the Broncos have topped 24 points just once in their last 10 games. That was a 29-12 win over Cleveland, which was aided by a 20-yard touchdown drive following a fumble and a late safety by the defense.
We know the Broncos had a terrible offensive year in 2022, but they are still only 25th in yards and 26th in 1st downs this season. Russell Wilson has at least passed for over 220 yards in back-to-back weeks after he was flirting with averaging under 200 yards for the year. But he is usually leading this team to 17-to-24 points most weeks (9-of-14 games to be exact), and that is even with the 24 takeaways from the defense.
Wilson has fantastic numbers against Bill Belichick’s Patriots in his career, scoring at least 24 points in each game and throwing 13 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. But he also has played them just once in the last 8 seasons, and that was a 2020 pandemic game without crowds.
The Pick
Denver needs a solid win after last week’s awful performance in Detroit. We are going to bank on that being an outlier and Zappe’s half in Pittsburgh as another outlier, and we will go with the under in a matchup that could end in the 20-13 range.
NFL Pick: Under 34.5 (-110) at Bovada
Rolling with Matthew Stafford Over Derek Carr?
The Los Angeles Rams were only 3-6 to start this season. But since their bye week, the team is 4-1 with only a loss in overtime in Baltimore. Matthew Stafford is playing his best since the Super Bowl run in 2021, and he gets a Saints team that has failed to win 3 games in a row all year.
The Rams are a 4-point home favorite with a total of 45 points. We are looking at the spread.
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, December 21, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Matthew Stafford’s Hot Streak
Matthew Stafford’s growth in this new-look offense for Sean McVay has been impressive this season:
- Weeks 1-11: 59.2% complete, 251.1 yards per game, 9 TD, 8 INT, 80.8 passer rating
- Weeks 12-15: 66.0% complete, 265.0 yards per game, 12 TD, 1 INT, 112.6 passer rating
You might chalk it up to a small sample size that includes games against the Cardinals and Commanders, but Stafford also recently played the Browns and Ravens, 2 of the elite defenses this year.
The factors helping Stafford include Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp working together healthy. Early in the season, it was Nacua dominating as a rookie while Kupp recovered from his hamstring injury. When Kupp came back, he looked great before a slump, then Nacua was hit or miss. But the Rams seemed to have figured out the way to get both playing at a high level for Stafford.
The other factor is running back Kyren Williams, who is averaging 115.9 rushing yards per game in his last 7 games. He missed Weeks 7-11 with injury, but ever since his return against Arizona, that started this Stafford hot streak.
That means the Rams are getting very effective play out of the running game and the pass, and they have not turned the ball over more than twice in any game this season. That is a sound formula for winning big games.
Saints Are Not Reliable This Year
Dennis Allen has been coaching the Saints since 2022 and he has only pulled off a single 3-game winning streak so far, and that was last year. It seems like every time the Saints are ready to go on a run this year, they slip up.
A big part of the problem has been the erratic play of quarterback Derek Carr, who ranks 21st in QBR (49.9), his lowest since the 2018 season. He threw 3 touchdowns for the first time in a Saints uniform last week against the Giants and their blitz-happy defense, but he could be in for a challenge against a Rams team he is 0-3 against.
Last year, Carr faced the Rams in prime time in December, and even though the Rams didn’t have Aaron Donald, Carr threw 2 interceptions and had a 36.9 passer rating – the lowest game in Carr’s NFL career – in a 17-16 loss.
The Rams have been mediocre at best on defense this year, and their rankings in just about every category back that up. But that also means they are rarely poor, and they have held 5-of-6 opponents under 21 points since Week 9.
It’s not like the Saints are anything more than a mediocre offense, so that should be an even matchup when those sides of the ball take the field.
The Pick
This one has the potential to be fun, though neither team has been good at winning the close games this year, especially if they have to come back late. The Rams are only 1-6 at 4th-quarter comeback opportunities this year, while the Saints are 0-5 (worst record in the league).
But the Rams also have 6-of-7 wins by at least 6 points this year. We are going to trust the home team with the better coach and quarterback on a hot streak to get the job done in a crucial December game for the wild card race.
NFL Pick: Rams -4 (-110) at Bovada
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