NFL Week 16 Swinger’s Best Bets: Soldier Field Will Be a Graveyard for Bears
-
Swinging Johnson
- December 19, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Lions -6½ (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Swinger rarely assigns a maximum 5-unit wager on any one side or total, but last week he announced the Jets were worthy of that distinction. Gang Green not only defeated the Jaguars on the road but covered the all-important number. Let’s see what SJ has for us this week!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 21-23-1 ATS (-6.00 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 14 Recap (1-2 ATS, -1.78 units)
I took the time to review all 15 of my Swinger’s Picks articles this season to find out how many 5-unit plays I’ve recommended. It turns out that the Jets were only the third 5-unit Max Bet of my 2024 campaign, and, like the other two, it cashed. But the truth be told, it was not nearly as easy a cover as I thought it would be, but the Jets were laying three and beat the Jags by seven. So, big deal, we had to sweat the bet, but we took home the cash, and that’s all that counts.
As for my three units on Washington, I was swearing at myself for not increasing the size of my play on the Commanders after they took a 17-0 lead over the Saints in the third quarter. Unfortunately, the Commanders kicked back, and they nearly lost because of it.
I was so fed up at that point that I wished the Commanders had lost, but the Saints ultimately went for the win via a 2-point conversion but wound up instead with a 20-19 loss. We dropped 3 units because the Commanders just got lazy.
The last of my three games was just an abject disaster as I tried to get too cute and back the Browns +4 as home dogs against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. It was a KC blowout, and I dropped 3 units because of it. That one was all me.
Overall, it was a 1-2 week that cost us 1.78 units.
Let’s do better. Here we go!
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
After evaluating this Week 16 slate of games, I had to check myself because one of my three NFL picks this week just happened to be the team facing the Browns. And we all know what a lame performance Cleveland turned in against Kansas City last week, causing us to drop three units on those bums. Am I truly endorsing the Bengals, or am I revenge-fading the Browns?
Well, let’s just say the Browns showed me just how bad they truly are, and I am using that knowledge to my advantage. But the question remains: Can the Bengals win by more than a touchdown? The answer is yes, and here’s why.
The Cats have won and covered 3 of their last 4 contests against the Browns, including a 21-14 decision as 5½ point road chalk in October. And as disappointing as Cincinnati has been this year, they’re starting to shape up down the stretch. Better late than never, I guess. The Bengals have covered 4 of their 6 contests, including their last two with wins over the Cowboys and Titans.
Cleveland’s Recent Struggles
Meanwhile, the Browns are in the midst of a shame spiral with outright losses and ATS money burners in 5 of their last 6 contests.
Let’s also note that a CFL-caliber quarterback by the name of Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) will be starting in place of Jameis Winston. Whatever you think of Winston, the man can at least throw touchdowns, something DTR has an aversion to doing. In his 12 career appearances, he has tossed 1 touchdown and 7 picks.
The Browns have a very good defense and one outstanding player in particular, Myles Garrett. But what they don’t do well is cover the long ball, and that’s a shame because the Bengals have two cats (pun intended) that thrive against defensive backfields. Enter Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Joe Burrow will be targeting them early and often.
I believe this game will get out of hand sooner than later, preventing a backdoor cover. And as always, I will never lay the hook on a critical number, so I will spend the extra juice and get this puppy down to Bengals -7 at -118 NFL odds.
NFL Pick: Bengals -7 (-118), buying a ½ point at Heritage Sports for 3 units (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Soldier Field
Had the Lions defeated the Bills last week, I would likely be staying away from this one. It would qualify as the proverbial trap game for Detroit as they would still be reveling in their victory over a top-tier team while overlooking a weak opponent this week and looking ahead to a date with the 49ers the following week.
But forget all that. The Lions lost a 48-42 shootout to the Bills, and they’re not happy. We should also point out that Detroit coach Dan Campbell’s teams have covered in 5 of 6 games the week after losing as a favorite. This is just such a scenario.
I realize the Lions lost a valuable weapon in tailback David Montgomery last week, but the true star of this rushing attack is Jahmyr Gibbs, and he’s absolutely fine for this one. And when he’s not blowing past the Bears’ D-line, Jared Goff will be dealing in the backfield to one of his many capable weapons.
The Bears can’t stop this D-Train (a cool name for Detroit as well as an underrated R&B group from the 80s), and I see them losing by a bunch here.
NFL Pick: Lions -6½ (-110) at Bookmaker for 4 units
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 22, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
In what world are the Falcons laying 8½ to anyone, including the Little Sisters of the Poor? They have been a mess lately, having lost four straight and going 0-4 ATS before the scheduling gods took pity on them and offered up the Raiders as a sacrificial lamb last week. And even there, they only managed 15 points against a Maxx Crosby-less Raiders defense last week. Atlanta secured the 15-9 decision but was far from impressive.
Sure, the Giants are a nightmare. I’m not going to defend them, and my wager is certainly not a ringing endorsement of this train wreck. However, in their last seven losses, the Giants have managed to keep the margin of defeat within a touchdown in 4 of those 6 defeats.
The wildcard is rookie Michael Penix Jr., who will replace Kirk Cousins the rest of the way unless he gets hurt or implodes. Penix will be all geeked up in anticipation of his first professional start, which could propel him to great heights or rookie mistakes.
I’m not going to put more than a few units on a lousy team like the Giants, particularly when an amped-up rookie QB will be on the opposite side of the field and looking to impress.
NFL Pick: Giants +8.5 (-110) at Bovada for 2 units (visit our Bovada Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (4-10-1 ATS)
It isn’t often we see a 16-point underdog in the NFL, but that phenomenon reared its ugly head last week, and the Giants proved that they’re so obscenely bad this year that even that wasn’t enough to get them the cover as they bowed 35-14 to Kansas City.
The Woodman loves his dogs, so his selection of the biggest hound on the board was not a surprise. Although he loves dogs, they’re not loving him back this season, as his record attests.
Apparently, that kick in the cajones last week felt so good that he’d like another, ma’am. Thus, he is going back to the same poisoned well and hoping the EPA has cleaned things up with the Saints as two touchdown road pups as they visit the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, home of the Green Bay Packers.
As an aside, isn’t tundra, by definition, frozen, therefore redundant? I think so, but it just sounds so rhythmic. I think I’ll keep my editorial red flag in my pocket and allow it.
Woodman’s Pick: Saints +14 (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
