Top NFL Pick: Commanders ML (+150) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
A couple of struggling NFL teams are meeting in Week 16 when the New York Jets (5-9) host the Washington Commanders (4-10). Both have been eliminated from playoff contention, which should also put to rest any idea of Aaron Rodgers returning to play for the Jets this season.
Both teams are not showing a great picture within the NFL odds. The Commanders enter on a 5-game losing streak after losing 28-20 to the Rams last week despite the flicker of a late rally attempt. The Jets have lost 6-of-7 games and were shut out 30-0 in Miami last week.
Generally, the Jets can’t score, and the Commanders can’t stop teams from scoring. That should be some matchup, but we think the 3-point underdogs from Washington have value as an underdog at our main offshore sportsbooks this week. We have our list of reasons for why the Commanders can end their losing streak in this non-conference matchup.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Not Everyone Lights Up Commanders’ Defense
The Commanders have been the worst defense in the NFL this season. No one allows more points or yards, and things have not really improved since coordinator Jack Del Rio was fired.
Teams just throw at will against Washington, as no defense has allowed more passing yards and passing touchdowns (32). Washington has allowed 8 touchdown passes of 50-plus yards this season. In comparison, the Jets have allowed 3 such plays.
It has been common to see No. 1 wide receivers running wide open down the field after breakdowns in this secondary. It happened last week with Cooper Kupp left uncovered on a 62-yard touchdown for the Rams.
Washington has already allowed 28 points or more in 10 games this season. But there have been 4 games where Washington held the opponent to 17 or fewer points, which is very respectable. It is no coincidence they are 3-1 in those games, so not every team has lit up the Commanders this year.
The teams that failed to break 17 points against Washington are the Patriots (lost 20-17), Cardinals (lost 20-16), Falcons (lost 24-16), and Giants (they still won 14-7).
What kind of offense fits in with that group? It’s the Jets, who are 30th in scoring at 14.4 points per game this season. Outside of their 30-point explosion in a half against the Texans in Week 14, the Jets have not scored more than 13 points in 7-of-8 games since the bye week.
After playing teams with hot quarterbacks like the Cowboys (Dak Prescott), Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa), and Rams (Matthew Stafford) the last 3 games, the Commanders will be glad to face the Jets this weekend.
The Jets Cannot Run the Football
When Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles just 4 snaps into the 2023 season, the logical solution would have been to shift to a run-heavy offense with a caretaker at quarterback who limits mistakes and the team can win with defense and playing smart, conservative offense.
The defense has done its part, but the problem is the Jets lack the offensive line to do anything on the ground despite having capable backs in Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. The Jets have the fewest rushing attempts in the league and they only rank 17th in yards per carry when they do run it, a number inflated by a few long runs.
Breece Hall’s rushing success rate is just 34.6% this year after it was 50% as a rookie. Dalvin Cook isn’t much better at 38.8%. The Jets cannot reliably stay ahead of the chains by running the ball behind this line. The Jets have rushed for fewer than 90 yards in 10-of-14 games this year.
Washington has not been great against the run, ranked 21st in yards and 24th in yards per carry allowed. But this defense will have a real shot to contain the Jets on the ground and make them beat them through the air.
Zach Wilson: Active or Out?
Once again, we don’t know what the Jets are doing at quarterback. Zach Wilson had his best game of the year against Houston in Week 14, then he was under siege in Miami and left with a concussion. He is in the protocol and it is not clear if he starts this week.
Trevor Siemian would start in Wilson’s place, and despite being in the league since 2015, Siemian really has never shown any above-average traits. His completion percentage is under 59%, his sack rate (7.0%) is about league average, he isn’t very mobile, and he throws interceptions at a higher rate (2.7%) than the league average.
He’s also looked awful in the short time he has played for the Jets this year. Washington’s main issue is pass defense, but Garrett Wilson may not be able to dominate this secondary as well as Tyreek Hill or Cooper Kupp would due to the lack of quarterback accuracy for the Jets. Wilson also isn’t as explosive of a receiver as those guys are.
The Jets have also turned the ball over multiple times in 4-of-5 games, including 4 turnovers in Miami last week. The Commanders finally got 2 takeaways last week to end a 4-game drought without one.
Sam Howell: Safe Plays This Week
There was a lot of hype and attention for the Washington offense this year given the strong preseason performance of 2nd-year quarterback Sam Howell, and because it was a new job for offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who came over from the Chiefs.
The results have been very mixed, with Howell sometimes looking the part of a young franchise quarterback, but the Commanders have also been subpar on 3rd down (ranked 19th), and way too many sacks have killed drives to leave them ranked 23rd in scoring points.
Howell throws the ball more than any quarterback in the league this year, but he also has taken a league-worst 59 sacks. He was on pace to shatter the single-season sack record, but he has at least cut that number down in recent weeks.
The Commanders also have shifted their approach in the last 2 games. Prior to that, Howell threw at least 42 passes in 6 straight games, which was approaching record territory as he kept throwing to compensate for the No. 32 scoring defense.
But against the Dolphins and Rams, Howell threw 49 passes combined over 2 games as the Commanders still lost. But the loss to the Rams was different in that they benched Howell early in the 4th quarter when it was 28-7. That’s a bit early in the game to do that, but he has taken a lot of hits this year and they want to limit that now. Weird timing with the playoffs out of reach.
Backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett finished the game and threw a pair of touchdowns. But Howell is still the starter this week, and he must be careful against this quality Jets defense to not fuel them with turnovers to set up short fields and give that awful offense a head start on getting points.
The good news is Howell has only 2 games this year with multiple interceptions. But he usually is good for a pick in most games. He just has to make sure he avoids the pick parade with 3 or 4 picks like he had against Buffalo and the Giants.
The Jets are known for having a great defense, but it has failed to get a single takeaway in 7-of-14 games this year, including 3 straight games without one. If Howell can protect the ball and not take a ton of drive-killing sacks, he should be able to have some success in a low-scoring game that’s right there for the taking in the end.
The Pick
For a change, the Commanders should go into a game with the better quarterback and face an opposing offense that is not designed to exploit their weaknesses on defense, especially through the air.
We’ll trust Howell to protect the ball and find a way to score enough points to beat the Jets, which usually isn’t much more than 14 points this year. The Jets are 2-8 when allowing more than 14 points this season.
NFL Pick: Commanders ML (+150) at Bovada
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