Top NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 17 schedule is highlighted by a huge AFC battle for the No. 1 seed between Miami and Baltimore. We are also looking at a tight end in Chicago, the best San Francisco touchdown scorer not named Christian McCaffrey, another opportunity for Bryce Young, and a running back touchdown in Philadelphia instead of Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray hogging all the scores.
We picked out our favorite player props for Week 17, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Soldier Field
Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons)
We are always looking for the Falcons to utilize their best talents, but this line of 35.5 yards seems a tad low for Pitts, who has cleared it in 10-of-15 games this year.
Is the weather expected to be poor in Chicago? It does not appear so. Sunday should be in the 30s, but there should not be strong winds or snow to bog down the passing game.
The Falcons also should look to pass the ball more, as the Bears have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league and are also No. 3 in yards per carry allowed (3.6). They are a legitimate run-stopping defense, but they have a terrible pressure rate and don’t get after quarterbacks enough to disrupt them, making it easier to throw against them (25th in yards allowed).
The Falcons are going with Taylor Heinicke again at quarterback. He has thrown for 268 and 229 yards in the 2 starts he’s finished with the Falcons this year. He can usually throw for 200 yards in a given start, and Pitts had 49 and 56 yards in the games Heinicke was most productive.
The Pick
It’s a positive matchup for Pitts given his quarterback’s passing ability over Desmond Ridder, the Chicago defense’s tendency to stop the run better than the pass, and Pitts comes in on a good run this month, hitting over 35.5 yards in all 4 games and scoring 2 touchdowns.
We’ll trust him in a game that could be sneakily offensive.
NFL Pick: Kyle Pitts Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers)
We have a player performance double with Deebo Samuel scoring a touchdown and the 49ers getting a win as a 2-touchdown favorite on the road against a 4-win Washington team.
Deebo had a rough night with Baltimore’s No. 1 defense, who hit him hard and held him to 47 yards on 12 targets. The 3.92 yards per target was Deebo’s worst game of the season with multiple targets. He also did not score a touchdown.
But Samuel should love what he gets this week in the No. 32 defense from Washington. This secondary has communication breakdowns each week and leaves players wide open at times. It’s no wonder they have allowed the most touchdown passes (33) in the league this year.
Samuel missed the matchup with Washington last December, but it was a good offensive day for the 49ers, and this one should be even better given the decline of the defense in Washington.
The Pick
Classic bounce-back game for the 49ers. Samuel can score as a runner or receiver. He can catch it deep or he can catch it from 5 yards and take it the final 40. He should have no problem with the No. 32 defense, and while the Commanders may get better offense out of Jacoby Brissett starting for the benched Sam Howell, this is still a game the 49ers should win.
NFL Pick: Deebo Samuel to have 1+ Touchdown and 49ers to Win (-109) at Bovada
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
Can’t Bryce Young get any respect? He passed for 312 yards last week, a career-high, and he still gets a line of 173.5 yards in this matchup with a struggling Jacksonville defense.
But it was the Green Bay defense that Young carved up last week, and that defense has been getting picked apart throughout the season by a variety of quarterbacks. But in watching the game, Young looked good and he didn’t just do it in garbage time. He led the Panthers to a season-high 30 points, and he was 1 second away from setting up his kicker to force overtime if he could make a field goal.
Maybe that game is the lightbulb moment for Young this season, but even if you only think it was opponent-based, then the Jacksonville defense is not a bad matchup right now.
- Jake Browning (Bengals) had 354 passing yards against the Jaguars in Jacksonville in his 1st road start and only 2nd start in the NFL period.
- Joe Flacco (Browns) is lighting everyone up for 300 yards right now, but he got the Jaguars too with 311 yards when he barely knew the Cleveland offense.
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens) would have passed for over 173.5 yards against the Jaguars if he wasn’t busy running for 97 yards that night. He finished with 171 as the Ravens ran out the clock to end that win.
- Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) continued his hot streak with 283 yards against the Jaguars last week.
The Jaguars are struggling defensively on this 4-game losing streak, and Young is going to have some opportunities to pile up yards in this matchup.
The Pick
The potential game scripts simply favor Young having to throw. The Jaguars could stop turning the ball over and finally play from ahead, forcing Young to throw to keep up. The other possibility is Young does gain confidence from his best game last week and that carries over to this struggling defense and he throws for well over 173.5 yards again.
We’re thinking optimistically and that Young will hit his Over again. It has been a brutal season for him but last week was a sign of hope.
NFL Pick: Bryce Young Over 173.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
James Conner (Arizona Cardinals)
It just seems like the Eagles can never win a game with ease this year. They have fallen from No. 8 last year to No. 25 in points allowed this year. The run defense started strong this season, but since the bye in Week 10, the Eagles have allowed all 6 of their opponents to rush for 100 yards.
The Cardinals are one of the more effective rushing teams (9th in yards, 3rd in yards per carry), and their numbers would be even better if quarterback Kyler Murray and top back James Conner were healthy for more games together.
Conner leads the team with 6 touchdowns, scoring in 3 straight games. If the Cardinals are going to make this a game, Conner has to do something special to find the end zone. Fortunately, he is playing this struggling defense.
The Pick
This is hard to believe but the Eagles have allowed 6-of-7 opponents to come into their home stadium and score at least 23 points this year. That only happened twice all year in 2022.
We’ll count on the Eagles to allow their share of points again in this one with the Cardinals looking to get their scores on the ground. Murray is only throwing a touchdown on 2.9% of his passes this year, a career low. Let’s trust Conner to run in another score.
NFL Pick: James Conner Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150) at Bovada
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
With Lamar Jackson taking over as the MVP favorite for the 1st time this season, there is a legitimate criticism that he lacks the touchdowns to live up to the standards of the award.
Jackson only has 19 touchdown passes, something 16 other quarterbacks (half the league) can say they have right now. He has 5 rushing touchdowns, which is as many as Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell, who have both been benched.
Add it all up and that is only 24 total touchdowns in 15 games, which would be extremely low for a Pro Bowl season, let alone an MVP-winning season at quarterback.
The Ravens are not immune to hearing criticism. They know what people are saying about them and Lamar right now. He also has thrown multiple touchdowns in games against playoff-caliber teams like the 49ers, Rams, Lions, and Browns this year.
This could be a matchup where the Ravens look to make sure Jackson has the statistical dominance worthy of an MVP as they seek the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a big win here.
Jackson has only thrown multiple touchdowns in 6-of-15 games this year, but this feels like a good spot where he can do it again.
The Pick
In case you missed it because of Miami’s comeback win last season, Jackson threw for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game against the Dolphins. He also found the time to rush for 119 yards and a touchdown. It was arguably the best game of his career, but Miami came back for the 42-38 win.
Miami has improved on defense, but other MVP candidates such as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott have all thrown multiple touchdown passes against the Dolphins this year.
We’ll go with Jackson having another big game and throwing multiple touchdowns to possibly lead his team to another No.1 seed.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135) at Bovada
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