Top NFL Pick: Vikings -2 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger hooked a big one last week in betting the Patriots +7 for 4 units and they not only covered but defeated the Broncos outright! Let’s see what NFL odds the man has in store for us to play at the main offshore sportsbooks.
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 23-25-1 ATS (-18.66 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 16 Recap
I routinely mock those who insist on telling me their bad beat stories because, as I have often said, the only one who wants to hear this tale of woe is the one telling it. Therefore, I will spare you my angst and tell you that the Eagles were the right side last week but a stunning fumble on a punt return coupled with a pick-six turned this 5-unit maximum bet from a laugher to a tear-jerker.
The Eagles would go on to win, 33-25, but fell short of covering the 12–14-point impost depending on when you got down. Speaking of which, this column is written on Wednesday afternoon, so if the lines I am getting look different than those you’re seeing by the time you read this piece, there’s your reason.
Okay, so we pushed the Titans +3 against the Seahawks for 3 units despite Tennessee being out in front by a touchdown at the half and holding a four-point lead with under a minute remaining. I firmly believe the bad beats eventually even out over the course of a season but in my case they haven’t thus far, and we are running out of time.
Let’s end this recap with some good news. I rarely bet on or against the Patriots because they are my hometown team and, as I always say, an intellectual judgment should not be colored by emotion. But when I saw Denver was laying seven points, I wasn’t betting on the Patriots as much as I was betting against the Broncos. That worked out well, as the Pats +7 was a 4-unit play and they didn’t need one bit of that head start after defeating Denver, 26-23.
In total, we lost a unit plus the vig, courtesy of a 1-1-1 ATS record. Let’s vow to do better this week. You with me? Let’s go!
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Key Stats
- Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Miami is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against an AFC North opponent.
- Baltimore is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against an AFC East opponent.
Could this matchup be a preview of the AFC Championship game? They are two of the top teams in the conference to be sure, but I think the public will be smashing the Ravens because they laid the smack down on the 49ers on Christmas Day. It was a major upset, as Baltimore was installed as a 6 ½-point road dog and wound up winning the game by 14 points.
Good. I’m thrilled. This is why this line is inflated and, hopefully, it drifts even higher by the time you are reading this because the Fish are the play here. Miami has defeated Baltimore in their last two meetings and will likely do so again and here’s why.
Would it surprise you if the Ravens came out flat after waxing the Super Bowl favorite in their own sandbox? Not only wouldn’t it surprise me but I’m counting on it.
We should also note that, excluding Week 1 when oddsmakers aren’t sure which teams are what, Lamar Jackson is 9-19 against the number when favored by 3 ½ points or more. These are spots in which the public loves to back Jackson because he is supposed to torch lesser teams. But he doesn’t, and that might have something to do with the Ravens kicking back against what they deem are inferior opponents.
Lastly, the only way the Ravens can cover is if their pass rushers make life miserable for Tua Tagovailoa. And with several injuries to the Dolphins’ offensive line, that is not out of the realm of possibility. But when Tua does get time in the pocket, the Ravens’ secondary will get burned by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It won’t be pretty and I would bet more units, but the Miami O-line has me a bit concerned.
NFL Pick: Dolphins +3 ½ (-118) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Key Stats
- Buffalo is 4-1 ATS and SU vs. New England over their last 5 meetings.
- Buffalo is 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games played in December.
- New England is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
Last week I faded the Broncos because they shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown over the Little Sisters of the Poor, let alone another NFL team. The Patriots just happened to be the team they were playing and it worked out quite well.
However, New England’s opponent for this matchup is quite different and will be out for revenge after getting stunned by the inferior Patsies, 29-25, a little over two months ago. Now the venue will shift to Buffalo and many will believe this line is too steep after the Patriots pulled an upset in Denver while Buffalo barely edged the lackluster Chargers.
Well, it’s Chalky von Chalkowitz at your service! And I’m here to tell you this line isn’t steep enough. Bill Belichick’s defenses are not schemed to contain mobile quarterbacks and Josh Allen is nothing if not mobile.
Meanwhile, the Pats’ only chance of keeping this one within the margins is if they can run against Buffalo. They should be able to, but will eventually forsake the ground game once they begin falling behind. That’s when the fun begins for Buffalo as they will pick off Zappe and force turnovers.
Buffalo wins 33-13 after coming out flat last week against the Bolts following two consecutive victories over the mettle of the league – the Chiefs and Cowboys.
NFL Pick: Bills -12 (-110) for 4 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Key Stats
- Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
- Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against an NFC opponent.
- Minnesota is 4-2 ATS and SU over their last 6 meetings with the Packers.
Minnesota’s tight end extraordinaire, T.J. Hockenson, is out for the season after ripping the usual suspects (MCL, ACL) in his leg last week. That’s just another injury for the Vikings whose trainers’ tables resemble a MASH unit.
But fear not, friends. They are playing the self-destructive Green Bay Packers and have a more than capable backup tight end in Josh Oliver, who has caught 19 of the 23 passes thrown to him this season. He has a few trips to the end zone as well.
I mention Oliver because he could be a decent prop bet as he will be overlooked in this matchup, especially when the Packers’ pass defense will be bug-eyed watching Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to a lesser extent.
But here’s the thing. Green Bay quarterback, Jordan Love, hates being blitzed. Some quarterbacks thrive on it because they have a lightning-fast release and can find targets quickly who aren’t being covered. And guess which team blitzes earlier and more often than just about any club in the league?
If you said the Minnesota Vikings then you get a cookie. I see the Vikings making life hell for Love and they should cruise to an easy victory.
NFL Pick: Vikings -2 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (7-9 ATS)
The Woodman sought redemption last week and he certainly found it, as the Raiders not only covered as 10 ½-point road dogs at Arrowhead but upset the Chiefs, 20-14, in a Monday night surprise. It sure as hell surprised me!
This week the Woodman is taking another large hound as the Cardinals will travel to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Eagles. Kyler Murray should be able to keep the Redbirds in this one as Philly’s defense may struggle to contain the elusive signal caller.
As always, the Woodman advises all who follow him to, Bet the Farm!
Woodman’s Pick: Cardinals +11 (-112) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
