NFL Week 17 Swinger’s Best Bets: Money to be Made at the Ray Jay in Tampa
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Swinging Johnson
- December 26, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Buccaneers -7 (-125), buying a ½ point at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
As always, join us as we take a look at the NFL odds board for Week 17 and find our top picks. Don’t miss out!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 23-24-1 ATS (-1.20 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 16 Recap (2-1 ATS, +4.8 units)
Last week we went 2-1 ATS with a 4-unit wager on the Lions -6 ½, who bashed the Bears, 34-17, and a 3-unit ATS winner when the Bengals beat up the Browns, 24-6. And it would have been nearly a sweep had the Giants been at least competitive as 8 ½ point road dogs to the Falcons.
But much to my chagrin and those who tailed me, they were anything but and bowed 34-7, leaving us bitterly disappointed that we not only lost 2 units but didn’t even get our requisite adrenaline rush.
Overall, we were 2-1 against the number last week and picked up +4.8 units, cutting our season deficit to -1.20 units. Hey, 16 weeks of taking this rollercoaster ride together, replete with plenty of action, and all we have is a paper cut. That’s not bad considering the troves of NFL handicappers I respect who are struggling through their worst NFL season that I can recall.
As for us, sure, it would be nice to have a heavy package going into the final weeks of the season and then the playoffs, but after a brutal start to the season, I shall not bitch.
Let’s make some money, shall we?
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
Whether you’ve been reading my Swinger’s NFL Picks column for the last dozen years or are new this season, you know I rarely choose totals as one of my three weekly best bets. And although I’d love to tell you that if I’m getting down on a total, then it must be a mortal lock, the truth is that totals have been a mixed bag for me. Nevertheless, this is my first one of the season, so let’s grab that cheddah!
High-Scoring Affair Potential
Remember, this is a Saturday game, so don’t sleep on this one. The Bengals have an explosive offense, averaging 28.2 points per game (6th), and a piss porous defense. Their opponents, the
Denver Broncos, also have a dynamic offense but own a stout defense that has regressed lately, surrendering 26.3 points per game over their last three contests.
This tells us that this matchup is shaping up as a high-scoring affair but that the Broncos’ defense could throw a monkey wrench into that equation. I understand that and respect it, considering this is one of the highest totals on the board this week.
Supporting Stats
Yet, I’d like to point out a few things that will assuage your concerns and perhaps convince you that going over in this game is a solid bet.
- Denver has gone over the posted total in their last 4 games
- Denver is averaging 33.2 PPG over their last 5 games
- Cincinnati has gone over the posted total in 6 of their last 8 games
- Cincinnati is averaging 32.5 PPG over their last 7 games
We should also note that it will be 62 degrees at Paycor Stadium on Saturday afternoon with a slight chance of occasional rain. Therefore, the temperature will be about as mild as you could hope for in Cincinnati at the end of December, and even if there are a few raindrops, that won’t move the needle.
The Broncos defense has not been terrific lately, and there are players in their secondary playing hurt, like Riley Moss, who will be torched by the likes of Joe Burrow when he finds one of his lethal weapons, aka Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, roaming free.
I realize we need seven touchdowns to push, but I see two young gunslingers who want to one-up the other. This looks like a game that could see both teams scoring into the 30s, so let’s watch this air show unfold and make some money in the process.
NFL Pick: Over 49 (-110) at BetOnline for 3 units (visit our BetOnline Review)
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Carolina quarterback Bryce Young has steadily improved in his second season, but let’s face it, he couldn’t have gotten much worse. The Panthers also defeated the Cardinals last week, so, understandably, the betting public is somewhat bullish on the Carolina Cats at this point.
Bryce Young’s Challenge
But we know better, don’t we? Last week Young had the benefit of a Cardinals team that just flat-out quit and was rightfully eliminated from the playoffs. He also had a rushing attack that was keeping the Arizona defense honest, allowing him more time in the pocket.
This won’t be the case on Sunday, as the Bucs have a solid run-stop unit, and there will be no safe haven for Young to have a cup of coffee while he leisurely peruses the field and casually chooses a target. The Bucs’ pass rush will give him more of a sense of urgency, although, once he does get the ball off, the Tampa secondary is a bit of a mess.
Backing the Buccaneers
Yet, I’m backing the Bucs. Tampa Bay has won 4 of their last 5 and covered 5 of their last 7 contests. The betting masses have the memory of a goldfish and will only focus on the Bucs’ 26-24 loss to the Cowboys while dwelling on the Panthers’ 36-30 win over the Cardinals.
Good, that gives us a better line on the home chalk, and Baker Mayfield should do a number on this weak-to-the-spot linebacking corps by going short to his valve receiver or slot guy. Remember, the Bucs may have lost last week, but their offense racked up 437 total yards, and their rushing attack averaged 5.8 yards per carry. Bucky Irving will have a field day against Carolina’s leaky run-stop unit.
Seeing as I never lay a hook on the two most critical numbers (3 and 7), I will be buying half a point just in case this one is close… it won’t be!
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -7 (-125), buying a ½ point at Bovada for 4 units
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field
Dallas has won and covered 4 of their last 5 games. Now what? Well, they will have a date with their first truly elite opponent since their modest winning skein began. Dallas started this streak with an impressive win over the Commanders but then feasted on a pair of cupcakes in the Giants and Panthers with a loss to the Bengals sandwiched in between. Last week they caught an unprepared Tampa team napping, but hey, a win is a win.
A Bounce-Back Opportunity
Yet, now the buzzsaw awaits. The Eagles saw their 10-game winning streak snapped in Washington last week in a game they had no business losing. In my humble opinion, Philly has been chewing glass and washing it down with vinegar since that loss, and it’s time to atone for that sin.
The last time these teams met, the Eagles had little trouble dispatching the Cowboys, 34-6, at Uncle Jerry’s Billion Dollar Playground. But now the new crime scene will be relocated to the Linc in the City of Brotherly Love, where hostile territory takes on a whole new meaning.
Look kids, this is a square play. But Chalky Von Chalkowitz has done fairly well this season laying the heavy lumber. I try not to make a habit out of it, but this seems like a good spot to bury the favorite while the Eagles bury the Boyz.
NFL Pick: Eagles -8½ (-110) at Bovada for 3 units
The Woodman’s Corner (4-11-1 ATS)
One of Shakespeare’s many famous quotes still echoing through the centuries is from Richard III: “Now is the Winter of Our Discontent.” That line essentially means that the bad times are in the past and good times are ahead. That may sound counterintuitive, but “winter” is the operative word.
Anyway, if we changed that to “Now is the season of our discontent,” well, now we’re talking about the Woodman’s trials and tribulations throughout the 2024 NFL campaign. The Woodman’s Corner used to be a happy place where ATS winners were spun like cotton candy, but now it’s chaos, confusion, and lies—damnable lies!
In case you missed it, I’ve become a drama queen (must be the spiked eggnog), after the Woodman took the biggest dog on the board with the New Orleans Saints +14 on Monday night only to see them get blanked by the Packers, 34-0.
The Woodman is fond of saying, “Bet the farm!” Unfortunately, the farm is long gone, the combines have been sold, and even the sheep are nervous around the Woodman. Yet, he is nothing if not persistent, and with that, the Woodman declares that Detroit -3 over San Francisco on Monday night is your ticket to financial freedom!
Woodman’s Pick: Lions -3 (-121) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
