Top NFL Pick: Dolphins +3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFL wraps up the 2023 regular season with a Week 18 schedule that has an excellent final game in Miami between the Bills and Dolphins for the AFC East. We are also looking at the Battle of Ohio, and can Bill Belichick go out as a winner against the Jets for the 16th time in a row?
We reviewed our NFL computer predictions and set aside our favorite spreads or totals for your Week 18 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Kevin Stefanski Wrapping Up Coach of the Year?
The NFL’s wildest story has another chapter in it as Cleveland (11-5) looks to complete a sweep of the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), who were eliminated by the Chiefs last week. Joe Flacco is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 250 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of his first 5 games with a new team.
But will we see Flacco this week? The Browns are the first team to make the playoffs starting 4 quarterbacks in multiple games in a season, which is why Kevin Stefanski is likely to earn Coach of the Year honors. Cleveland is locked into the No. 5 seed and may want to rest several starters.
The Bengals are a 5-point favorite with a total of 39 points. We are looking at the over.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
Cleveland’s Offense: Does QB Matter?
While quarterback obviously matters more than anything, it may not be an issue in Cleveland where the Browns have succeeded this year despite starting 4 different quarterbacks, losing a great running back in Nick Chubb in Week 2, and they even dominated the Jets’ strong secondary last week without Amari Cooper available.
With Kevin Stefanski’s offense, he has been able to bring out the best in each quarterback not named Deshaun Watson, which is shocking given Watson’s past success and the hefty resources they put into him with that trade.
But if P.J. Walker has to start this matchup for the Browns, you can still trust the offense to find success against Cincinnati, a defense that Stefanski has mastered facing even in past years where they performed better.
This year, the Bengals are 31st in yards allowed, 26th on 3rd down, and 21st in points allowed. They allow many big plays and have allowed 9-of-16 opponents to score at least 24 points this year, including the Browns in Week 1.
Jake Browning’s Respectable Effort
The Bengals have fallen short of the playoffs this year, but Jake Browning has shown some respectable play as a backup quarterback. His numbers are above average across the board, and he gave the team a 10-point lead in Kansas City on Sunday before they were unable to close the deal.
He will be a big upgrade over Joe Burrow in Week 1 when Burrow did not throw for 90 yards on that bad calf in the 24-3 loss to Cleveland. Maybe if the Bengals had more trust in Browning before the season, they could have started him in that first month and given Burrow the proper time to heal instead of forcing him out there and struggling to a 1-3 start.
Browning has thrown a touchdown in 7 straight games since taking over for Burrow, and he can extend that streak in this one. The Browns may want to rest key starters like Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith, so the defense may not be at full strength either.
The Pick
It is a hard game to predict with the availability of key starters in question. But with a computer score more than 11 points ahead of the total, we are going to count on Stefanski’s coaching prowess to put in a solid effort offensively and for the Bengals to also score enough to make sure the over hits.
Score Prediction: Browns 26 – Bengals 24
NFL Pick: Over 39 (-110) at BetOnline
Last Game for Bill Belichick?
If the reports are true, this could be the final game for Bill Belichick as head coach of the New England Patriots. There would be nothing more fitting than for him to end with a win over the New York Jets, the team he’s had a vendetta with for decades. The Patriots have won 15 games in a row against the Jets.
The Patriots are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 30.5 points. We are checking out the spread for this one.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium
Week 3 Recap: Patriots 15, Jets 10
At least some games went exactly according to expectations this year. When these teams met in Week 3, you had to figure low scoring with Mac Jones and Zach Wilson as the starting quarterbacks.
Sure enough, the Jets managed 10 points and allowed a safety. The Patriots won even though their final 6 drives ended in punts. Shockingly, the game didn’t have a single turnover with the safety (Wilson sacked in end zone) the closest thing to one.
The Patriots did not allow any sacks while taking down Wilson 3 times. The Jets had no running game (22 carries for 38 yards) and that is something that hasn’t really changed the rest of the season.
The No QB Bowl
This time, the quarterbacks figure to be Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian. Zappe was so bad against Buffalo that he had to be close to getting benched for Jones, but he finished the game. His only real highlight was an 18-yard touchdown run, and it wasn’t his fault the Patriots missed a couple of key field goals as rookie kicker Chad Ryland has been a mess this season.
The Jets have surprisingly reached 20 points in 3-of-4 games in the last month, but they also lost 30-0 to the Dolphins in a recent rematch. The division games have not been kind to them, and Belichick especially knows how to shut down this offense that has a poor line, no running game to speak of, and a quarterback in Siemian with no real redeeming qualities.
The Pick
This is a matchup where the Patriots can likely pound away with Ezekiel Elliott and just play it safe in the passing game to escape with another close win. The streak was supposed to end this year for the Jets with Aaron Rodgers in town, but we know how that ended after 4 snaps. Instead, we’ll trust Belichick to go out with a 16th win in a row against the team he was supposed to go coach in 2000.
Score Prediction: Patriots 18 – Jets 15
NFL Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Can Miami Pull It Off at Home?
It all comes down to one game for the AFC East. The Bills already crushed Miami, 48-20, earlier this season, but the Dolphins usually play better at home, and Buffalo’s offense has not been the sharpest in recent weeks.
All 3 matchups in 2022 between these teams were decided by a combined 8 points, so it would be nice if we could get something classic in this game with so much on the line. Buffalo could even be facing elimination from the postseason depending on how other games play out this weekend.
The Bills are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 50 points. We are looking at the spread here.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Week 4 Recap: Bills 48, Dolphins 20
Our first taste for a “Game of the Year” came at an awesome time as the Bills were dominating their last few games and the Dolphins just had that historic 70-20 win over Denver. It was the first time a team had 10 offensive touchdowns in a game in NFL history.
This game started with 5 straight touchdown drives, looking like the shootout of the year. But that’s when things slowed down for Miami, and Buffalo only kept finding success with Josh Allen finishing with a perfect passer rating (158.3), 320 passing yards, and 5 total touchdowns.
In fact, Miami just became the first defense in NFL history to allow multiple quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards with a perfect passer rating in the same season. It happened again in Baltimore against Lamar Jackson in Week 17. Jackson threw 5 touchdowns with rarely a Dolphin in sight, and Miami left that game with another big injury as pass rusher Bradley Chubb tore his ACL.
Recalibrating Expectations
But in the Week 4 game, Allen was money on throws to Stefon Diggs, who had 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. Things have gotten awfully quiet between them since. Diggs has not had a 100-yard game since Week 6 and he has 3 touchdowns in his last 10 games.
The Dolphins are not supposed to have Xavien Howard at corner this week due to injury, but they should have Jalen Ramsey, who was not available in the Week 4 matchup.
Tua Tagovailoa was feeling the heat from Buffalo in that game in Week 4. He took 4 sacks and was pressured on 29.3% of his dropbacks, his 2nd-highest pressure rate in a game this season.
Tua had better protection last year against Buffalo, and the Bills have also lost some defenders to injury since Week 4, including Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White. They also have not been playing Von Miller as he deals with some issues.
Neither team comes in playing at a very high level like they were in Week 4, but that’s also why this may be a more even matchup.
Josh Allen and the Streak
The pivotal matchup should be how the Miami defense fares against Josh Allen after he torched them in Week 4. Allen is 10-2 against Miami and has thrown multiple touchdowns in all 12 career games against Miami, easily the longest streak in NFL history for any quarterback against the same opponent.
But recently, Allen has fallen in love with quarterback runs at the goal line. He has 15 rushing touchdowns this year, including 4 in his last pair of games. This normally would be no big deal, but Allen’s passing is not up to par in recent weeks either.
Allen has not thrown multiple touchdowns in 4 straight games, the first time he’s done that since the start of his 2019 season, which was a full year before his breakout season in 2020.
The Bills are 5-1 since offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired. But over the last 5 games, Allen is only completing 56% of his passes, he’s thrown 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, and he is averaging 6.74 yards per pass. His passer rating is only 76.8 in that time.
Close Game Prowess
The Bills are not known for winning close games, but they have pulled out a 20-17 win in Kansas City, a 24-22 win against the Chargers, and they held on 27-21 against the Patriots on Sunday despite another weak game from Allen, who threw for 169 yards and completed 50% of his passes.
While the running game has been successful for Buffalo, James Cook’s numbers have not been that great outside of the Dallas game when he had 179 yards on the ground. Cook only had 48 yards against the Patriots and hasn’t averaged better than 3.5 yards per carry in his last 2 games.
Miami has only allowed more than 21 points at home once this year, and that was the crazy 28-27 loss to the Titans when they allowed 2 late touchdowns. Buffalo is such a “win big, lose close” team that it would not seem likely that they grind out a 4-point win over the Dolphins in Miami in this one. So, if you are thinking blowout, that’s also unlikely on the road and given the way the Bills are struggling in the passing game.
The Pick
It was a tough call but the computer score favoring Miami in a close one gave us enough confidence to trust the Dolphins to cover the spread. It does not sound like Jaylen Waddle will be back in time, but Tyreek Hill is still there and can break the single-season receiving record with a huge game even if he will come short of 2,000 yards.
It also sounds likely that Raheem Mostert will return at running back, giving Miami its duo of Mostert and rookie De’Von Achane, who ripped off a long run and 100-yard game in Buffalo in Week 4.
This is essentially a road playoff win for the Bills, and it could be a season-ending game at that. Coach Sean McDermott is 0-4 in road playoff games, including a 0-3 record with Allen at quarterback.
Miami was able to squeeze out a 22-20 win at home over Dallas, a very similar team to Buffalo in both play style, elite on both sides, and a tendency to struggle on the road and in close games. We’ll go with Miami to get this one too.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Bills 23
NFL Pick: Dolphins +3 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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