Top NFL Pick: Ravens +4 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
For the Week 18 finale, the NFL odds card starts with a Saturday doubleheader. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will continue their rivalry with a virtual must-win game for the Steelers while the Ravens can rest starters with the No. 1 seed locked up. At night, a huge matchup in the AFC South will take place in Indianapolis with the Colts hosting the Texans with both teams having an eye on the playoffs and maybe the division title.
We made our top pick for both games on Saturday in Week 18, and you can always find them at offshore sportsbooks.
Rivalry or Rest for Baltimore?
The Baltimore Ravens (13-3) locked up the No. 1 seed with a dominant win against the Dolphins last week. But they have a big decision to make with resting starters like Lamar Jackson and Marlon Humphrey, or pushing ahead with a bye week to come and making sure they get a split with the Steelers and eliminate their bitter rival from making the tournament.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are shaking things up by sticking with Mason Rudolph at quarterback after back-to-back wins with over 30 points scored, something the Steelers have not done since 2020. Kenny Pickett has been essentially benched and it is hard to argue with, as he has only led the Steelers to 30 points once in his career. Mike Tomlin is riding the hot hand on this matchup.
The Steelers are a 4-point road favorite with a total of 37.5 points. We think you might want to jump on this line for Baltimore while it’s still this high for Pittsburgh because, even in a game with backups playing, you can never count on a rivalry (especially this one) to go the way you’d expect.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 06, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Resting Starters Does Not Guarantee a Loss
The issue of resting for the playoffs will always be debated with some thinking it helps a team and some believing it makes them too rusty for the first playoff game. But the act of pulling starters is something that does not guarantee the team is going to lose that final game in the regular season, especially when they are likely the better team in the game.
In fact, the Ravens were in this position in 2019 when they rested players like Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Marshal Yanda, Ronnie Stanley, and Earl Thomas. But this is not a game where you can rest everybody given a 53-man roster. Some good players are going to have to play, and one of those for Baltimore is kicker Justin Tucker, the best in the business.
But the moral of the story is the Steelers were a 2-point favorite in Baltimore and the Ravens still won that game 28-10, a game where neither starting quarterback threw for 100 yards, and it was a game the 8-7 Steelers needed to win.
The Steelers know resting starters against a team desperate to make the playoffs doesn’t guarantee a win. In 2004, the 14-1 Steelers rested key starters in Buffalo, a 9.5-point home favorite that day that just needed to win to make the playoffs. But the Steelers used their defense, including a fumble return touchdown by a young James Harrison, to win 29-24 and eliminate the Bills from the playoffs.
Basically, unless your team is so quarterback-dependent like Peyton Manning’s Colts, it is realistic you can rest key starters and still perform well in a game like this. The Ravens are well coached, know the Steelers well, and it usually is a tight game to begin with.
Do the Steelers Ever Win Big in Baltimore?
Since 2008, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are 19-15 against John Harbaugh’s Ravens, including a 6-1 record since 2020. But for a rivalry that produces so many close games, how have the Steelers fared on the road?
Tomlin is a very solid 8-7 SU and 10-5 ATS in Baltimore in his career. But in typical Tomlin fashion, he fares much better as an underdog:
- Tomlin is 3-5 ATS in Baltimore when the spread is no higher than +2.5 or he’s favored.
- Tomlin is 7-0 ATS in Baltimore when the Steelers are a 3-point underdog or higher.
Tomlin is 1-3 SU as a favorite in Baltimore, and this spread is the 2nd-largest one he’s had in such a game. The Ravens have led after the 2-minute warning in every game this season, they have the No. 1 defense, the No. 1 rushing offense, they average almost 30 points per game, and they have a league-high 29 takeaways on defense.
Obviously, resting key starters is going to take away from some of that, but this team is still talented and well-coached. Even after the success the last 2 weeks, the Steelers have been outscored by 27 points this season, and they haven’t scored more than 16 points in their last 2 trips to Baltimore.
The Pick
If Tyler Huntley is the starting quarterback for Baltimore, he may only be 3-6 as a starter, but he has covered a 4-point spread in 7-of-9 games, including all 3 of his starts against the Steelers. He has faced this defense 3 times since January 2022, so that’s a pretty good recent experience to have from your backup, and he should still have some solid receivers to throw to like Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman.
In Week 5, Baltimore dropped a ton of passes in Pittsburgh, held the Steelers to 3 points until the 4th quarter, then gave up a safety on a blocked punt, and another field goal after Jackson coughed up the ball in his own end to lose by 7 points instead of 4.
It is hard to imagine the Steelers, for all their flaws in 2023, being the only team to beat these Ravens by more than 3 points, and to do it twice on top of that. Back the Ravens while the line is still this big, as it could turn if they give out more information about who is really playing this week. These teams have too much pride to just blow this game off and let the Steelers get a win that could propel them into the postseason.
NFL Pick: Ravens +4 (-110) at Bovada
Rookie Coaches Hoping for Playoffs in Indy
The Colts and Texans started the 2022 season with a tie before finishing with at least 12 losses each. Unless they tie again, someone is going to finish with 10 wins this year and a playoff appearance, which would be well ahead of schedule for their rebuilds.
But this could be a very tight game with the Texans a 1-point road favorite with a total of 47 points. All eyes will be on C.J. Stroud, as this is the rookie’s first nationally televised game of the season. In fact, it’s the first time Houston has played a game at a timeslot other than 01:00 PM ET.
Who will step up?
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, January 06, 2024 – 08:15 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
Trust the Better Quarterback?
When you start talking about playoff-type games this time of year, you look at which team has the better quarterback and the better defense. In this game, Houston appears to have the edge in both, but both edges could be compromised due to injuries.
C.J. Stroud is favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year after a stellar season in which he’s thrown 21 touchdowns to 5 interceptions, averaged 274.6 yards per game, and he averages 8.1 yards per pass.
Way back in Week 2, Stroud had literally 1 bad snap (a strip-sack) early in the game and the Colts used that to build a 14-0 lead with a couple of quick touchdown drives. It was an uphill battle for Stroud from there, but he was able to finish 30-of-47 for 384 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks in a 31-21 loss.
Stroud was sacked 6 times, his worst pass protection of the season. But the Texans had injuries up front, including left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Unfortunately, Tunsil left Sunday’s game with a groin injury and his status is up in the air. The Colts rank 5th with 49 sacks this year despite the lowest blitz rate in the league (14.1%), so if the Houston pass protection isn’t up to par, this could be problematic again.
On the other hand, Stroud should be better than he was back in Week 2 with such minimal experience. Stroud was on fire in November, passing for over 300 yards every week and helping Houston to a hefty number of points and wins.
But after some red-zone struggles with Denver, a concussion against the Jets that knocked him out a few weeks, and a somewhat quiet return game last week against Tennessee, it is hard to say Stroud is coming into the game hot. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per pass over his last 55 attempts.
Also, the Texans lost productive rookie receiver Tank Dell, which has also hurt Stroud’s ability to dominate. Dell had 72 yards and a touchdown against the Colts in Week 2.
You’d still want to take Stroud over Gardner Minshew in a heartbeat going forward, but for this one game, you might not see the best of Stroud given the injuries the Texans are dealing with up front and at wide receiver.
Trust the Better Defense?
The Colts allowed a disgusting number of points at home earlier this season, including 4 games with at least 29 points. But they have been better, holding the Buccaneers (20), Steelers (13), and Raiders (20) to no more than 20 points in their last 3 home games. It took an unbelievable touchdown catch on 4th down by Davante Adams on Sunday for the Raiders to hit 20 points.
The Texans have better defensive numbers than the Colts in most categories, but they can be high variance and allow some big pass plays, which is something Minshew has recently been good with after a pair of 50-yard completions against the Raiders in Week 17.
But the Texans have been so hot and cold defensively in the last 6 games:
- Week 12 vs. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence hit 4 different receivers with a gain of at least 42 yards on his way to 364 passing yards in a 24-21 win in Houston.
- Week 13 vs. Broncos: Houston intercepted Russell Wilson 3 times in a 22-17 win.
- Week 14 vs. Jets: After a scoreless 1st half, the Texans somehow allowed Zach Wilson to throw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 30-6 win for New York.
- Week 15 vs. Titans: Houston’s defense did a great job of limiting Tennessee in an overtime win.
- Week 16 vs. Browns: The Texans were shredded by Joe Flacco after Amari Cooper went off for 265 yards in a 36-22 win for Cleveland.
- Week 17 vs. Titans: The Texans allowed a season-low 3 points as Levis was injured and replaced by Ryan Tannehill, who the Texans sacked 5 times.
If they were hot last week, are they cold this week? The Colts have scored at least 21 points in all 8 home games this year. They are also getting healthy at the right time as Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr., the team’s best running back and receiver, were both good to go last week.
Finally, while the Texans have protected the ball well all year, the Colts had a 19-game streak with a takeaway on defense. The streak ended in Atlanta in Week 16 and the Colts have now gone back-to-back games without a takeaway, so it would be good to start another streak in this one by taking advantage of Houston’s line if Tunsil is out.
The other good news is the Colts have just 1 giveaway in the last 3 games, so it would be great if they can find a way to win the turnover battle against a team that does well at that.
The Pick
There is a lot to consider with this matchup, which might be why the point spread is this tiny.
Do the Texans generally have the better quarterback and defense? Yes.
Do the Colts have the home field, a convincing win over Houston in Week 2, better health right now, and a veteran quarterback instead of a rookie making his first prime-time start in a do-or-die game for the playoffs? Yes.
It could be a great one, but we are going to back the Colts at home to get it done for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Colts +1 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
