NFL Week 18 Swinger’s Best Bets: Colts Poised to Cash on Sunday
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Swinging Johnson
- January 2, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Colts -4.5 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
As always, join us as we take a look at the NFL odds board for Week 18 and find our top picks. Don’t miss out! And If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more betting advice. This week, our expert covered the Commanders vs. Cowboys and
Giants vs. Eagles games.
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 26-24-1 ATS (+8.80 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 17 Recap (3-0 ATS, +10.0 units)
It was a glorious sweep week where we got a post-Christmas Day miracle on Saturday afternoon when the Broncos and Bengals roared back after a lackluster first half to tack on 44 second-half and overtime points to get us over the 49 total in that game for 3 stunning units!
Yup, that was a gift indeed, but we’ve had our fair share of bad beats this season, so I won’t apologize. This is why we absolutely love the NFL!
Our next two plays were “Easy Like Sunday Morning” (thanks to Lionel Richie and the Commodores for that reference). We bet it, didn’t regret it and never had to sweat it.
I am speaking, of course, about the Bucs (4 units) and Eagles (3 units), who performed football autopsies on their clinically deceased opponents, the Panthers and Cowboys, respectively. Both teams won by an identical 34-point margin. May all our wagers be so effortless.
After the dust settled, we went 3-0 against the number and picked up 10 units to bring our season bankroll to +8.80 units. It doesn’t sound like much, but we’ve had one helluva second half of the season after struggling mightily in the early going.
A shoutout to my loyal X followers like Gaby and Chris L, who never waver and always keep the faith. As I’ve said before, if I’m ever in a foxhole, I want those two with me.
Onward and upward to Week 18!
Week 18 Warning
Before we dig in, let’s remember this is Week 18, where nothing is as it appears. Coaches with nothing to gain will tell you they’re going to play their starters, and, like lambs to the slaughter, the masses bet on those teams as if they’re going the entire way.
Don’t listen to what coaches say about playing their starters on the final week of the season. They may play their starters for the first two series, and then it’s time to send in the clowns. Or, they may not play them at all. It’s not like they’re going to get charged with perjury for having a change of heart or just downright lying to the media.
Let’s also understand that just because a team has to win to get into the playoffs doesn’t mean they will win. I cannot stress this enough. It’s a scenario that lures the sheeple into betting more than they should because it makes perfect sense that one team will go all out while the other will just go away. Don’t fall for it! Teams like to play the role of spoiler, so never discount that.
With that, my top three best bets for Week 18 will be for small units. There are too many unknowns, so let’s go easy and wait for the playoffs to bury the books!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
I am always happy to fade a bad team when the moon and stars align. It just so happens that this is just such a scenario as the woeful Jags will be traveling to Indianapolis to meet the Colts before both teams make vacation plans to go to sunny places with shady people.
A Battle of the Bottom Barrel?
Look, I know what you’re thinking. The Colts lost to the worst team in the league last week when they bowed 45-33 on the road to the Giants. And you better believe Joe Q. Public will be thinking the same thing and salivating at the prospect of betting on an underdog for the first time in his life.
But stop and ask yourself why this line has the Colts as high as 5.5 point favorites. It’s quite simple, really. As bad as you believe the Colts to be, the Jags are a touchdown worse even though they beat the illustrious Tennessee Titans last week, 20-13.
Flacco’s Still Got It
Guys and girls, listen to me. The Colts have an excellent rushing offense, and Joe Flacco still has a few bullets in his holster after throwing for 330 yards and two touchdowns last week. Frankly, it was Indy’s defense that lost that game for them, but this week they’re facing a Jags offense that doesn’t put many points on the board, so covering by 4.5 shouldn’t be an issue.
This will be redemption for last week, so expect an all-out effort from the Colts to put a bow on a disappointing season.
NFL Pick: Colts -4.5 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 04:25 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
The 49ers kept pace with the juggernaut Lions last week until they melted like butter in a blast furnace in the second half, resulting in a 40-34 loss. But now they get the Arizona Cardinals, and although Brock Purdy will not be playing, we can’t suddenly discount the many offensive weapons this team possesses. Moreover, backup Joshua Dobbs is no babe in the woods at 29, so we can expect, at the very least, a capable performance.
The Cardinals have lost 5 of their last 6 games, with the only win being a 36-30 decision over the lowly Panthers, and even that took an overtime session to get the job done. I ask you, who the hell are the Cardinals to be laying points to anyone, especially a divisional rival like the 49ers, who will be looking to atone for their 24-23 upset loss to Arizona earlier in the season?
Let’s grab the points and cross two magical numbers (3 and 4) with this live road hound.
NFL Pick: 49ers +4.5 (-110) for 2 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 04:25 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
I cautioned you about coaches saying they’ll play their starters and then play them very sparingly or not at all. But then there are coaches who will tell you flat out that he is sitting his starters, and that’s always true, especially when there’s nothing to be gained by playing them.
This is the case with Sean McVay and his LA Rams, who have won the NFC West and clinched a playoff berth. Meanwhile, Seattle has been eliminated, but they have no reason not to roll out their starters and end the season with a 10-7 record, which would ordinarily be good enough to make the playoffs.
The Seahawks will also want to avenge an overtime loss to the Rams from earlier this season. Let’s bet that Seattle’s first-stringers will be six or more points better than the Rams’ second and third-stringers.
NFL Pick: Seahawks -5.5 (-110) for 2 units at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (5-11-1 ATS)
Winning was infectious last week as the Woodman got back on track by laying the lumber with the Detroit Lions over the San Francisco 49ers. A road favorite of all things! The Woodman is nothing if not a bargain hunter for big underdogs, but a good general knows when to change tactics.
Thus, our man from parts unknown won this Monday night battle by doing just that and making this little corner of the internet a perfect 4-0 against the all-important number.
This week he’s going back to his sacred well and taking the Kansas City Chiefs’ second-stringers +10 as they make the trek to Mile High. If you still have a farm to bet, the Woodman says grab the Super Bowl champs with the points and wrap up the regular season in style!
Woodman’s Pick: Chiefs +10 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
