Top NFL Pick: Jets-Patriots Under 30 ½ (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Let’s check out the NFL odds and see if Swinger can rebound before the playoffs begin at the main offshore sportsbooks!
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 23-28-1 ATS (-29.84 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 17 Recap
There are some weeks when you have the right side but a bad call, quirky bounce, or a special team’s play turns everything upside down. Last week was not one of those weeks for me. I flat-out got it wrong on the Dolphins and Vikings for 3 units apiece, while the Bills looked thoroughly mediocre in victory as a double-digit home favorite against the Patriots, which cost me 4 units.
It was a clean sweep for the books as I got crushed despite getting a favorable early line on the Bills at -12, which drifted as high as -14 ½ as the week progressed. The mere fact that I’m writing that I got a favorable line at -12 just oozes a Joe Q. Public wager. I have become everything I mock and loathe – a square.
After reviewing this season and the disastrous start, somewhat satisfying middle, and spiraling ending, I’ve noticed that I’ve succumbed to my predilections for chalky favorites in hopes that it will get me even. Scared money don’t make money as the saying goes, but I’ve been betting on Sunday like I’ve got to make the rent on Monday.
Bad habits result in bad outcomes. But we have one more regular season week and a slew of playoffs to make it right. There won’t be any $1 Million Platinum Plays to get even, as that’s just an old trick by paid touts of a bygone era. It is bygone, right?
Anyway, the final week of the season is fraught with landmines, as coaches with nothing to gain will hold players out while too much emphasis will be placed on teams that “need the win”. Let’s tread cautiously as we limp into the postseason with what will hopefully be a solid Week 18 in our rearview mirrors.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium
Key Stats
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games against the N.Y. Jets.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the N.Y. Jets’ last 10 games against an AFC East opponent.
- The total has gone UNDER in the last 3 meetings between these teams.
This is the lowest NFL total I have seen in…maybe ever. There are many good reasons for it being this low, so let’s list them, shall we?
- Trevor Siemian is starting for Zach Wilson. Okay, so maybe that’s a reason to bet over the posted total. But he’s a backup for a reason and won’t be a factor in jump-starting this anemic Jets’ offense.
- The Jets have the 29th-ranked offense, averaging 15.7 points per game.
- The Patriots have the 32nd-ranked offense —dead last, for those who don’t know how many teams are in the NFL— averaging 14.6 points per game.
- The Jets defense ranks 4th in passing defense, allowing 176.9 yards per game.
- The Patriots defense ranks 2nd against the run, allowing 87.4 yards per game.
But the cherry on top of the sundae is the weather. I’m not sure who will be at Foxboro to watch a meaningless game in nasty weather. But good luck to those idiots. According to the most recent forecast, the temperature will be around freezing, but the 15 mph winds will make it even more blustery.
Oh, and snow. Did I mention there will be a snow dump on Sunday in the fair hamlet of Foxborough (that’s the official spelling to fancy it up)?
Both offenses are horrendous but their respective defenses are pretty damn good. Neither team is going anywhere after this matchup, except on vacation, so where’s the motivation? Motivation to lose, maybe, to move up in the draft but that’s about it.
Go low, my babies.
NFL Pick: Under 30 ½ (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Key Stats
- Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against an NFC opponent.
- NY Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
The Tommy DeVito story was nice, but ultimately, talent rules. The kid just doesn’t have enough of it —at least at this point in his career— to lead a team. But Tyrod Taylor does. And he will be under center for Big Blue on Sunday, which makes the Giants a live dog in my eyes.
Another reason is the team that they will be playing. Philadelphia has dropped four of its last five games, failing to cover in all of them, with the only victory coming against the Giants on Christmas Day, in which they captured a 33-25 victory but didn’t come close to covering as 14-point home chalk.
The Eagles’ defense has fallen apart as the season has grown older. The offense will likely be without DeVonta Smith, which is a huge weapon to lose when there is no one else to take the focus off A.J. Brown.
But perhaps most, of all, the Eagles don’t need this matchup unless the Cowboys somehow fall to the woeful Commanders. Otherwise, they are locked in as the No. 2 team in the NFC East and that’s that. Don’t you think remaining injury-free rolling into the playoffs trumps all, as far as the Eagles are concerned?
The Giants will use Saquon Barkley as a sledgehammer and Tyrod Taylor still has moderate wheels to peel around the edge and move the chains. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants won this game outright as the sharps have pounded this line from Philly -7 to -5 as of this midweek writing. However, we’re still talking about the New York Giants, so let’s not overdo it.
NFL Pick: Giants +5 ½ (-109) for 3 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Key Stats
- Buffalo is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against Miami.
- Buffalo is 4-2 ATS over their last 6 games.
- Buffalo is 5-1 SU over their last 6 games.
The Miami trainer’s room resembles a MASH unit. Tua Tagovailoa could very well join the walking wounded, as he is currently battling a shoulder injury. The Dolphins’ offensive line is ravaged and a threadbare O-line will be catnip to the Buffalo pass rush, currently tied with Miami for No. 3 in the league in sacks with 53 on the season.
The difference is that the Bills are healthy, while Miami is ailing on both sides of the ball. You have to know something’s up when the oddsmakers have Buffalo as a field goal favorite in Miami. The reason is that one team is relatively healthy while the other is a mess.
Jaylen Waddle may miss his second consecutive game and so too might Raheem Mostert. But, even if they suit up, neither will be 100% and nothing will balance the scales if that O-line can’t at least somewhat limit the pressure coming from Buffalo’s pass rush.
I know it’s tough to lay points on the road but the Bills smoked the Fish, 48-20, earlier this season when they were healthy so why not an encore performance?
NFL Pick: Bills -3 (-105) for 3 units at Bookmaker
The Woodman’s Corner (8-9 ATS)
The Woodman is rallying as the 2023 regular season comes to a merciful close. Merciful for me anyway, but the Woodman has now correctly selected two double-digit favorites in consecutive weeks with the latest being a stunning 35-31 Cardinals’ victory over the Eagles as 11-point road dogs!
And as we enter the final game of this regular season campaign, the Woodman is gunning for another ATS cover to even his record to .500. It was no small task considering how he began but a small consolation to those who expected to win a few bucks by betting the farm week in and week out.
But Woodman’s acolytes will take the small victories and hope to pay a negligible season-long royalty, aka the vig, to the bookies but get their money back, and then some, in the postseason. As for this week, the Woodman says, Bet the Farm, and back the Ravens!
Woodman’s Pick: Ravens +3 ½ (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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