NFL Pick: Broncos +7 (-118) for 4 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are getting information on these teams after two weeks and we intend to make that education work for our NFL Week 3 best bets. Let’s get at it and sweep the board!
- Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 2-4 ATS (-8.05 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- Swinger’s Bonus Pick: Over 54 (-110) Chargers/Vikings for 2 units at BetOnline
Week 2 Recap
Justin Fields, what the hell are you doing?! Perhaps I should be directing my frustration at the Bears’ offensive coordinator but when you’ve got an NFL quarterback who drops back and presses pause expecting the chaos and mayhem around him will suddenly pause along with him then you’ve got a major problem.
In case you missed it, I bet the Bears and they lost 27-17 to the Bucs while Justin Fields ran the ball four times for three yards with no designed rushing plays for the fleet-footed passer. I’m going to stop there because the only one who wants to listen to a bad-beat story is the one telling it. I set three units on fire by betting on Chicago. Thanks for nothin’, ya bums.
And… It’s Gone
Three more hard-earned units were set aflame on the Texans in their 31-20 loss to the Colts, sans Anthony Richardson for most of the way. It’s stunning that this kid refuses to stop running through defenders. Lo and behold, a concussion in his second game as a pro – who would’ve thunk? Well, just about everyone except Richardson.
One piece of good news was the no-sweat bet we made on the Bills as they trounced the Raiders, putting three units in our pocket. All in all, we went 1-2 against the number and last week was like a self-service massage parlor – nothing but disappointment.
NFL Week 3 Best Bets
Okay, kids, after checking out the NFL odds for Week 3, I’ve got three plays and a bonus bet (plus the Woodman’s selection) for you this week and I’m looking to sweep things up and get back on track. Let’s hold on tight until we count the cash. It’s going to be a sweet Monday morning for us all. Let’s go!
Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
Key Stats
- The Dolphins were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception in the 2022 season.
- The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of just 27.3% against the blitz since the 2022 season — fifth-worst in the NFL.
- The Broncos’ defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 29.9% when blitzing since the 2022 season — fifth-best in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos have lost both games by a combined three points and last week Russell Wilson finally resembled the quarterback the team thought they were getting when they signed him to a $245 million deal. Wilson tossed for 308 yards and three touchdowns while leading the team in rushing with 56 yards in the Broncos’ 35-33 loss to the Commanders.
The Dolphins defeated their rivals from New England, 24-17, but the Patriots came on towards the end with two touchdowns. The Fish are 2-0 and the Broncos are 0-2. This means Joe Q. Public will blindly back the Dolphins at home because he never met a home favorite he didn’t like especially when a few household names are floating about like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa.
The Pick
The only problem is that the Miami defense does not pressure well and now that Russell Wilson has his weapons healthy and available, this one should be a shootout. I like the way Wilson played last week and I believe the head start we’re getting here is more than generous.
It wouldn’t shock me if the Broncos pulled the upset but it’s only Week 3 and I won’t get carried away with a moneyline wager until I see more.
NFL Pick: Broncos +7 (-118) for 4 units at BetOnline
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Key Stats
- The Titans are undefeated (4-0) when converting more than 50% of third down conversions since the 2021 season — tied for best in the NFL.
- The Browns were winless (0-3) when allowing 250 or more passing yards in the 2022 season — tied for worst in the NFL.
- The Browns were winless (0-3) when rushing at least 4 yards or less five times in a game during the 2022 season — tied for worst in the NFL.
What do you think of DeShaun Watson? I think he’s lost something in his engine since the whole scandal. There’s a piston that’s just not firing.
The mental aspect of sports is underrated but there are many examples of athletes being unable to shake free of whatever funk they got in – just ask Tiger Woods after his philandering was made public and Mike Tyson after getting starched by Buster Douglas. Neither was ever the same again.
I wouldn’t put Watson in the pantheon of great athletes but he was certainly paid like one. So far, he hasn’t delivered and now he doesn’t have the steamroller Nick Chubb to run the rock, allowing him time in the pocket when he does pass.
The Pick
The Titans are stout against the run and it will be on Watson to make things happen. But here’s why I like Tennessee in this spot.
- The Titans have Derrick Henry while the Browns are without Nick Chubb.
- The Browns are playing on a short week after their Monday night loss to the Steelers.
- The Browns could be looking ahead to their game against the Ravens next week. Can you say trap game? I know I can.
- The Titans coach Mike Vrabel is 24-9 ATS as an underdog of more than three points.
Let’s grab the points and watch the road pup cash.
NFL Pick: Titans +3.5 (-110) for 3 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at EverBank Stadium
Key Stats
- The Texans are 2-22-1 (.080) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — the worst in the NFL.
- The Texans were 1-6 (.143) when sacking the QB 3 or more times in the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in the NFL.
- The Texans are ranked 29th in rushing yards.
The public is down on the Jags after scoring only nine points against the Chiefs last week. I get it but we also have to consider Kansas City has a much tougher D than they have had in years.
Trevor Lawrence will get well this week and so too should running back Travis Etienne who will devour the Texans’ 29th-ranked run-stop unit.
The Pick
I can’t see the Texans moving the ball against the Titans’ fourth-ranked run-stop unit which means C.J. Stroud will have to do it all by his lonesome. And if his blindside protector, Laremy Tunsil, is out again, that will be even more reason to bet against them.
My only trepidation is that the Jags might get complacent in the final frame leading to a backdoor cover but I’ll take my chances.
NFL Pick: Jaguars -8.5 (-110) for 4 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (2-0 ATS)
Last week the Woodman saw the Commanders rally from a 21-3 deficit but nearly allowed the Broncos back in the game after taking an 11-point lead deep into the fourth quarter.
This week the man from parts unknown puts his pristine 2-0 ATS mark on the line with a wager on another underdog, the Chicago Bears, getting a bundle at Arrowhead, home of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The points are intriguing but that KC defense could win this game all by themselves if Fields doesn’t juke, jive, cut, and run because he’s not having any success as a traditional pocket passer.
Woodman says, “Bet the farm on da Bears!”
Woodman’s Pick: Bears +12.5 (-104) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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