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NFL Week 3 Swinger’s Best Bets: Don’t Sleep on the Fish!
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Swinging Johnson
- September 19, 2024
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NFL Top Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger went 2-0-1 against the number last week and is now officially in the black. Let’s see what the man has in store for us this week!
- Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 3-2-1 ATS (+2.54 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
- @SwingeratBMR
Week 3 of the NFL is here; there’s still time to score big! Join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool for your shot at massive prizes all season long!
Week 2 Recap (2-0-1 ATS, +6.00 units)
Nine underdogs covered the number last week at the top-rated sportsbooks, and eight won outright! How wild is that? If you have the stones to bet dogs on the moneyline, Week 2 was made for you. Speaking of which, I had the Raiders +9 (3 units) and the Vikings +6 (3 units) that both won outright. Unfortunately, I have no stones and grabbed the points, which was just fine by me because I’ll never bitch about a winning bet.
My final wager of the day was with the home chalk Houston Texans laying six for three units against the Bears. It seemed like we were going to cash until Chicago kicked a late field goal, which gave us a push instead of a cover. So sad, too bad, but we made 6 units for the week and came within a whisker of a 3-0 ATS day. Let’s see if we can capture that elusive sweep this week and fatten our bankroll. Let’s go!
Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 22, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
Malik Willis will be back under center for the Packers after tossing for 122 yards and one touchdown, which resulted in a 16-10 victory over the injury-ravaged Colts. Willis was also surgically precise in throwing mainly short stuff, going 12-of-14, but as I always say, if you torture the numbers long enough, they’ll confess to almost anything.
I say this because it was a serious dose of ground-and-pound that the Packers delivered to the Colts last week, and Willis was afforded the luxury of a bit more time in the pocket when the Indianapolis defense realized it wasn’t going to be bracing for more Josh Jacobs gashing their offensive line. In total, the Packers ran 52 times and chewed up a whopping 261 yards on the ground.
Willis Must Step Up
That won’t play this time around as the Titans have a stout run defense, and Willis will have to do more this week to move the chains. Tennessee allowed just 84 yards of rushing in their unnecessary loss to the Bears, and last week, they held the Breece Hall-led Jets rushing attack to 101 yards. Tennessee owns an excellent defensive run-stop unit, and their offensive line is stout, which will give Tony Pollard plenty of opportunities to do to the Packers what they did to the Colts last week.
As long as Titans’ quarterback Will Levis can remain calm and not toss the game away as he did in Week 1 against the Bears, Tennessee will be celebrating its first win of the young season.
NFL Pick: Titans -1.5 (-117) for 2 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, September 22, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Who do you think the squares will hammer this week? Or should I say, who do you think the great unwashed masses will fade this week?
The answer, of course, is the Carolina Panthers. They have been woeful with Bryce Young in the pocket, and it’s become such a panic in Charlotte that head coach Dave Canales has already made the switch to veteran Andy Dalton, aka the Red Rifle, who once made defenses shudder when he’d launch to AJ Green in his Cincinnati Bengals days.
Tough Test
This is a seminal moment for the first-year coach, and he gets the Raiders coming off a huge win against the formidable Baltimore Ravens. This is also a perfect trap game for Vegas, as they could still be reading their press clippings and looking ahead to a date with the Browns next week.
You might be surprised to learn that the Panthers have a solid offensive line but will need to double-team Maxx Crosby, as left tackle Ikem Ekwonu will be out of his depth if left alone to deal with the Raiders’ resident chaos-maker. I expect plenty of carries from the backfield duo of Chubba Hubbard and Miles Sanders to tick time off the clock and give the Cats a great opportunity for a cover with the 5.5 points we’re getting.
NFL Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-105) for 2 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 22, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at Lumen Field
A bit of déjà vu awaits you as this is also the pick of my fellow handicapping friend, the Woodman, who you will read below. The big hubbub is the absence of Tua Tagovailoa from this matchup, and instead, the Fish will be sending in Skylar Thompson, whose name reminds me of a top gun pilot in a Tom Cruise movie.
The line is positively whacky, especially considering the Dolphins still have plenty of lethal weapons in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and an emerging favorite at this address, tailback De’Von Achane. Thompson subbed in for Tua last week after the latter was concussed and went 8-of-14 for 80 yards with no touchdowns and, more importantly, no picks in garbage time in a 31-10 blowout loss to the Bills.
Seahawks Limp In
Now they face a far less dangerous adversary in the Seattle Seahawks, who eked a 23-20 overtime win against the lowly Patriots. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ lineup has been bitten big time by the injury bug, with wideout DK Metcalf, running back Ken Walker III, and defensive tackle Leonard Williams among several others who missed Wednesday’s practice.
This is a perfect spot to take the points with the better team and maybe even toss a few bucks on the Dolphins +185 to win this one outright. Had it been a bit later in the season and I was a bit more confident in what I’m getting with Skylar Thompson, this would be a 5-unit play, but for now, we’ll contain ourselves and make it 4 units.
NFL Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (1-1 ATS)
The Woodman went from hero to zero last week when the Rams got absolutely drilled by the Cardinals in the desert and never even sniffed a cover as 1.5-point road dogs. But to be fair, who’d have ever thought the Cards would put up 41 points? Nobody, that’s who.
This week, the Woodman vows to bounce back with what I believe is a most savvy selection with the Dolphins getting points against the Seahawks. Get down early and often on this one!
Woodman’s Pick: Dolphins +4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
