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NFL Week 5 Swinger’s Best Bets: Panthers Claw Bears in Value Play of the Week
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Swinging Johnson
- October 3, 2024
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Top NFL Pick: Panthers +4 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger cashed at the top-rated sportsbooks with his first 5-unit maximum bet of the NFL season last week when the Bengals covered against the Panthers in a catfight. Let’s see what the man has for us this week!
And remember there’s still time to cash in! Join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool for your chance to win big all season long!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 5-6-1 ATS (-5.72 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Week 4 Recap (1-2 ATS, -3.6 units)
We won our first 5-unit max bet last week when the Cincinnati Bengals gave us heart palpitations but ultimately vanquished the upstart Carolina Cats, 34-24, covering the 4-point impost.
Unfortunately, that was the only piece of good news we’d have in Week 4, as the Steelers came out flat as a board before showing life in the second half. However, it was too little, too late, as they dropped a 27-24 decision to the Colts as 1.5 point road chalk that saw three units go to the bad guys.
Lastly, the Texans did us dirty when they slept—walked through the second half of their game against the Jaguars before CJ Stroud awakened his slumbering offense and tossed a one-yard game-winner into the end zone with 18 seconds left. However, in the waning moments of the game, Jaguars’ Travis Etienne was tackled in his own end zone, which should have been ruled a safety, giving us a push at -6, but alas, the ref was drunk or paid off, and my bankroll was 4 units thinner.
Final score: Texans 24 – Jaguars 20.
So, what did we learn in Week 4? Well, have you detected a pattern in my bets last week? Yup, I am reverting to my chalky, square ways. Every one of those bets was not only on a favorite, but two of three were on the road. Call me Joe Q. Public; I am what I loathe.
It’s time to get sharp again and look for some serious value this week. Let’s go!
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered the Bills vs. Texans and Packers vs. Rams games.
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 06, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Soldier Field
What a difference a quarterback makes. The Panthers owned the most lackluster offense in the league when rookie Bryce Young was under center, but now that the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton, has supplanted him in the starting role, Carolina went from averaging 6.5 points per game to 30 in Dalton’s two starts.
I am not blind to the Panthers’ defensive deficiencies, but does Caleb Williams and the Bears offense really scare me? Ah, that’s a hard no. Williams has not lived up to the hype, which, quite honestly, would have been virtually impossible as the Chicago media hailed him as the greatest thing since deep-dish pizza.
However, that does not mean he’s a bust by any stretch of the imagination. In time, he might become a legend for all I know, but right now his offensive line is sketchy, and they have been outgained in terms of total yardage in three of their four contests.
I spoke of getting value this week, and I believe we have it right here with the Carolina Cats getting a four-point head start.
NFL Pick: Panthers +4 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, October 06, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
Humiliation is a fine tonic for revenge. Listen to me talking like some Victorian-era poet, but if the shoe fits, you might as well wear it. And that’s precisely what we have here with the Buffalo Bills getting absolutely spanked last week by the Ravens in a 41-10 blowout.
That works in our favor because the masses are going to proclaim that Josh Allen and the Bills are pretenders even though Buffalo outscored their first three opponents to the tune of 112-48. However, not only will the offense be full of piss and vinegar, but the defense is going to be eager to atone for its malfeasance last week as well.
As for the Texans, CJ Stroud may be missing a critical piece of his offensive line in blindside tackle Laremy Tunsil, who left last week’s game with an ankle injury and the offense came to a screeching halt. I suspect Stroud will be under duress throughout this one unless Tunsil makes a Lazarus-like return to action and is near 100 percent.
Yes, the Bills may be without wideout Khalil Shakir, who is experiencing tenderness in his ankle, but I believe he’ll suit up. Look for Allen to get last April’s second-rounder, Keon Coleman, more looks in this contest in what should be a bounce-back week for the Bills.
NFL Pick: Bills ML (-117) for 3 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 06, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at Empower Field
The Broncos came away with an unlikely 10-9 win over the Jets in miserable conditions last week. Bo Nix had a 48% completion rate and tossed for 60 yards, with one of those being an eight-yard pass to Courtland Sutton for the only touchdown of the game. Impressed? Me neither.
However, the public seems to be smitten, as evidenced by the fact that this floundering offense is a 2.5 point home favorite over their divisional rivals from Sin City. The Denver defense is decent, and they should be able to handle the Raiders to a large extent. However, Brock Bowers is expected to be much more involved this week than last, as he will be able to exploit Denver’s defensive Achilles heel, short stuff to big targets.
If Maxx Crosby suits up, I’ll be much more enthusiastic about this wager, but I’ll look for the Raiders to continue their recent dominance as they shoot for their ninth consecutive win against the Broncos. I’m taking the points and buying a hook because I’d rather lose the additional juice than lose the bet by half a point.
NFL Pick: Raiders +3 Buying a 0.5 Point (-121) for 3 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (2-2 ATS)
The Woodman picked what pretty much amounted to a no-sweat bet last week when he wisely grabbed the boatload of points with the Broncos and watched them hang tough and ultimately defeat the Jets outright, 10-9. Wouldn’t that have been a nice moneyline (+330) to add to your list of NFL wagers last week?
Well, our fearless companion is a dog lover at heart, and he is going back to the well with the New Orleans Saints visiting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Although KC is 4-0, they haven’t been demolishing anyone. But then again, they are 3-1 against the number, so what the hell am I saying?
When you have this kind of internal dialogue, it’s probably a pretty good idea to stay away. Unfortunately, it’s the only game on Monday night, so you know I’ll manufacture an opinion by then, and I will likely side with my buddy the Woodman.
Woodman’s Pick: Saints +5 (-108) for 1 unit at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
