NFL Week 6 Swinger’s Best Bets: Super Sunday & Monday Night Madness
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Swinging Johnson
- October 10, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Jets +2.5 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger went from hero to zero in just one week, but he’s determined to get back on track at the top-rated sportsbooks. Follow him or fade him; either way, let’s see what the man has for us this week!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 5-9-1 ATS (-17.18 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Don’t forget to join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for a shot at huge prizes throughout the regular season.
Week 5 Recap (0-3 ATS, -11.46 units)
Have you ever heard your favorite song on the radio and you’re just jammin’ along and belting it out like you’re live and in concert with tens of thousands of adoring fans singing right along with you?
Obviously, you’re not the only one who worships this song, but so does the rest of the world, right? I mean, who wouldn’t lose their mind over the Bee Gees “Stayin’ Alive”? And not only that, but you hit those falsettos just like the Brothers Gibb. Maybe even better!
Well, I’ve got news for you. Although I’m a fan and you’re a fan, there are legions who loathe the Bee Gees and find your particular rendition as repulsive as Barry’s chest hair. This is how I felt writing up my NFL picks last week. I was so exuberant, so confident, yet, ultimately… so very wrong. In retrospect, maybe Stayin’ Alive isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
Let’s just get this right out of the way, shall we?
Panthers +4 flamed for 4 units, as did the Bills at a pick for 3 units, and then the Raiders +3 fell to the Broncos for another 3 units. For those who may not be as proficient at the new math as I, that’s a 0-3 record, and -11.46 units went straight to the bad guys.
Well, here’s the silver lining. We can’t do any worse, right? Chin up, keep the faith, and let’s get our money back!
Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 13, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field
The Cardinals shocked the world last week by defeating the 49ers in their own sandbox, 24-23, as 7-point road hounds. They are indeed a pleasant surprise for their fans in the desert, as they are currently 2-3 but have been competitive in all of their games but one, a blowout loss to Washington.
However, that’s where the good news ends for the Redbirds, as they are likely to still be poring over their press clippings from that huge win over the Niners. Trap games are not the sole province of good teams, and, notably, their porous defense could be shredded by Jordan Love and company if Love is back to his normal self and not still ailing from his injury.
On the flip side, the Packers will see the return of star cornerback Jaire Alexander, who will be useful in putting the clamps on Marvin Harrison Jr. The current line shows us getting the home chalk at under two critical numbers (6 and 7), which makes this a solid bet in Week 6.
NFL Pick: Packers -5 (-110) for 3 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, October 13, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium
Oh, lawdy, my pappy told me never to bet good money on bad teams. Just as an aside, if my father ever heard me utter “oh lawdy” and call him “pappy” in the same sentence, I’d likely be the immediate recipient of a well-placed backhand, but I digress. Rest in peace, Jim.
Okay, so the Texans will be without the explosive Nico Collins, who was designated on IR this week, which is good news for the Patsies. The Texans are also relatively light in their defensive backfield, but unfortunately, New England doesn’t have any game-breakers at the wideout position. Nevertheless, I do expect to see DeMario Douglas more involved as the weeks go on, and Sunday could be the beginning of that schematic shift.
Brissett Out, Maye In
As you may know, the Pats are handing the reins of the offense to their third overall pick in April’s draft, Drake Maye. I’m not sure this is good for his long-term future, but Jacoby Brissett was ill-equipped to lead a vertical offense when his offensive line was mastering the Matador style of protection. Ole’!
Nevertheless, Maye will be amped up, and I believe that enthusiasm will be infectious. This is like a fresh start, and if the kid can release the ball early and accurately as he did with regularity as the stud QB at North Carolina, then these boys may have a shot at covering in front of the fan friendlies at the Razor.
Lastly, the Texans are not only coming off a nice win over the Bills last week but could be looking ahead to their tilt at Lambeau with the Packers next week. Oh, one more thing. Nine Texans missed Wednesday’s practice, including blindside tackle Laremy Tunsil and right tackle Tytus Howard. Food for thought.
NFL Pick: Patriots +7 (-115) for 2 units at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
Buffalo Bills vs. N.Y. Jets
Monday, October 14, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
I’m not sure how Josh Allen is listed as active after getting concussed last week in the Bills’ 23-20 loss to the Texans, but assuming he does play, it’s likely he won’t be all there. Add to that his top target, Khalil Shakir, who missed last week’s game against Houston, didn’t practice on Wednesday and will likely be sidelined for this one.
How are the Bills going to do damage with a compromised offense against one of the league’s best defenses? I’m not sure, but Allen will have to be at his best in hostile territory on Monday night.
Drama in the Meadowlands
Now we have the soap opera that is the New York Jets. Robert Saleh was the first coach whacked this season, and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich will now slip into the big chair. Aaron Rodgers was allegedly behind the firing, as it was revealed Saleh was going to be taking away the play-calling duties from OC and Rodgers’ buddy, Nathaniel Hackett.
This looks like a put-up or shut-up game for Rodgers, and although there is nothing more I’d love to see than a complete meltdown at the Meadowlands, I think this is a perfect storm for the Jets to get well against a compromised Bills offense and a defense that will be without suspended Von Miller and perhaps defensive tackle Ed Oliver (hamstring).
I look for the Jets to win outright, but let’s grab the points in case it’s tight.
NFL Pick: Jets +2.5 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner (2-3 ATS)
In the misery loves company department, the Woodman proved to be a good and loyal friend last week by picking the Saints plus the points over the Chiefs. As we all know, Patrick Mahomes and company prevailed in a 13-point win, which was eight points too many for the Woodman’s acolytes to even sniff a cover.
This week, the Woodman finds himself smitten by the rookie Jayden Daniels and his division-leading Washington Commanders! I cannot believe I strung those last four words together in a sentence, but the Commanders are indeed at the top of the NFC East.
I like the line he’s getting in this one, but an extra half-point could convince me to walk on the wild side along with him. I’m just not quite there…yet.
Woodman’s Pick: Commanders +6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
