NFL Week 7 Swinger’s Best Bets: We’ll Have a Dog Day Afternoon on Sunday
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Swinging Johnson
- October 18, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Browns +6 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
It’s been a tough few weeks for Swinger, and his 1-2 ATS mark in Week 6 made the masses even more restless for something resembling a winning week. Well, Week 7 is here, and Swinger believes better times are ahead.
Let’s break down the latest NFL odds from the top sportsbooks and cover everything you need to know about these matchups.
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 6-11-1 ATS (-20.8 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Don’t forget to join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for a shot at huge prizes throughout the regular season.
Week 6 Recap (1-2 ATS, -3.62 units)
Imagine you’re writing this weekly NFL picks column, and you have to look yourself in the mirror, knowing that a $100 bettor is down over two dimes on the season and we’re not even at the midway point. However, when you’re in quicksand, the worst thing you can do is struggle.
You’ve got to envision better days so that at the end of the season you can look back and know that you were as cool as the other side of the pillow when the torches and pitchforks came for you. When it’s all said and done, make sure they never see you sweat (who remembers that deodorant commercial?) and you’ll come out the other side without a hair out of place.
Now that I’ve given myself that little pep talk, consider me well-coiffed, aromatically pleasing, and ready to rumble.
If you missed it, the Pats did me dirty when they were steamrolled by the Texans for 2 units while the Jets could not solve the riddle of Josh Allen and the Bills. Of course, it cost me 4 units when I decided not to buy the hook from +2 ½ to +3, which would have given me a push in a game that the Jets should have won outright.
However, we did win 3 units when the Packers dispatched the Cardinals, who came out flat after an enormous win over the 49ers the week before. Why wasn’t that a 4 or 5-unit play? Because that’s the way it goes when your season mocks every decision you make.
Let’s go back to work and get our loan to the books repaid in installments before we begin charging interest.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 20, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Huntington Bank Field
Joe Burrow has gone from Joe Cool to Jolene DeGeneres in the blink of a season. Look, I’m all for the frosted tips and assorted fashion accouterments but if you’re going to go all Hollywood, then you’ve got to perform on the field. Otherwise, some jamoke on the internet will compare you to a female comedian.
Anyway, the Bengals eked by the Giants last week, 17-7, in what was another pedestrian outing by Burrow. However, he did have a spectacular 47-yard run to the house, so let’s give him his flowers for that nifty little jaunt.
But here’s the thing. This is not only a divisional game, which unto itself changes the complexion of the matchup, but it is also the same venue where Burrow has lost all four meetings with the Browns by an average of 12.5 points per game.
One other thing I might add. Last week, Deshaun Watson, for all his miscues this year, finally had his starting tackles in the lineup for the first time this season. The protection was better, and Watson went 16-of-23 for 168 yards. Certainly nothing to write home about, but if Watson can complete nearly 70% of his passes against the Cats, then we’re going to see an upset.
Lastly, Amari Cooper is gonorrhea, having been dealt to the Bills for a third-round pick. Okay, it’s not exactly a checkmark for the Browns, but they are getting Nick Chubb back, and I believe Cleveland will be able to move consistently on the ground against a lackluster Bengals rush defense. Chubb’s mere presence in the backfield will also allow Watson more time in the pocket.
The Browns are getting too many points at home, and the Bengals could very well be looking ahead to the Eagles next week.
NFL Pick: Browns +6 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 20, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis opened at -3½, and it’s no surprise this number has dropped to -3 as the sharps pounded that hook into submission. The two most impressive things the Colts have done this season include losing by just two points to the Texans in their season opener and then falling by six points to the Packers the following week at Lambeau.
Narrow wins over the Bears, Steelers, and lackluster Titans are not impressing me, and when you toss in the three-point loss to the Jaguars, well, consider me skeptical of laying points with Indy against anyone in the league, particularly a team that has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at their disposal.
Look, I get it. The Dolphins have a Lamborghini and a Ferrari in the garage, but the keys are nowhere to be found. Nevertheless, Tyler Huntley was pulled off the scrap heap, and maybe, just maybe, after two games he’s shaken the rust off his engine.
The Colts’ Jonathan Taylor is questionable in this one after suffering a high ankle sprain, and not only did he miss Wednesday’s practice but so too did wide receivers Josh Downs (toe), Michael Pittman Jr. (back), and offensive linemen Ryan Kelly (calf) and Braden Smith (knee).
Indy QB Anthony Richardson will likely be returning after being sidelined for the last two games with an oblique injury. Will he be 100%? Doubt it. Will he run and get hurt again as he so often does? Definitely. Grab the points with the Fish.
NFL Pick: Dolphins +3 (-105) for 3 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 20, 2024 – 04:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Cooper Kupp will be back for the Rams, but how healthy he’ll be is anyone’s guess. Davante Adams, like Amari Cooper, is gonorrhea for the Raiders and traded for a third-round pick as well. Neither of those favors anyone but the Rams.
However, let’s look at the line in this game. I ask you, Who are the LA Rams, a team that is 1-4, to lay a full touchdown to anyone? It’s insane, especially when you consider that LA cannot stop tight ends. And it just so happens that the Raiders’ biggest offensive weapon is their rookie tight end, Brock Bowers, who leads the team in receiving yards with 384 on the season after six games. BTW, that’s a prop bet you might want to consider betting over.
I realize the Raiders are not a great team, and Maxx Crosby is dinged up but getting seven against the Rams. Sorry, I can’t refuse.
NFL Pick: Raiders +7 (-120) for 2 units at Bookmaker
The Woodman’s Corner (2-4 ATS)
The Woodman is struggling in the early going much like Yours Truly, but at least he sniffed a cover with the Commanders getting +6 ½ last week in Baltimore when they fell to the Ravens 20-13. Once again, we see the importance of critical numbers and the absence of a measly hook ruining his day as it did mine with the Jets +2 ½ last week.
Well, the Woodman is coming back with another big hound in the form of the New England Patriots. I must confess, I was surprised to see the Jags laying six points to the Patriots, particularly after New England’s offense appeared to be jumpstarted by the rookie Drake Maye under center.
Although I’m digging the line on the underdog, the reason I’m not hopping on this bandwagon is that the Jags have been in London now for two consecutive weeks and won’t have to adjust to the time change and the unfamiliar surroundings.
Woodman’s Pick: Patriots +6 (-117) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
