NFL Pick: Lions -8 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Swinger went 2-1 against the number last week and came out nearly 4 units to the good with underdogs Chicago and Atlanta winning their games outright. Let’s see what SJ has up his sleeve this week with three more NFL best bets at top sportsbooks, as he looks to sweep the board!
- Twitter: @SwingeratBMR
- Swinger’s 2023 NFL Record: 8-13 ATS (-21.77 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Week 7 Recap
Tom Brady says that the bad calls even out after a full season. I would like to think the same would happen with my many bad beats this season, but the difference is I don’t get the benefit of replay. Nevertheless, I have this feeling that the tide is finally shifting from a tsunami to much calmer waters.
Last week was a step in that direction as we advised 3-unit plays on two underdogs, the Bears and Falcons, both not only covering but winning their respective games outright. Of course, it wouldn’t be the 2023 NFL season without a loser that just happened to be a 2-unit money-burning total on under in the Bears game.
That was a game that should never have gone over but blah, blah, blah. So sad, too bad, no one wants to hear my tale of woe unless you tailed and lost as well. In that case, we will toast a glass full of our salty tears and wish for better luck down the line.
Overall, we went 2-1 ATS and cut our debt down 3.98 units which beats losing but still stings knowing a $100 bettor is down over two dimes on my ill-advised selections. But I believe good things are in our future so let’s go get it in Week 8 and treat our books to a little more pain this week.
Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Lumen Field
Key Stats
- Cleveland is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games against Seattle.
- Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Browns’ Quarterback Quandary
The Browns will either be starting an ailing Deshaun Watson or a backup in PJ Walker. In Watson’s four appearances, he has had only one impressive performance in tossing for 289 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-3 win over the Titans. Let’s face it, he’s not the same guy the Browns backed up the Brinks truck for when they handed him $230 million all guaranteed.
And if you’re pondering the Browns’ 39-38 win over the Colts you should understand that victory had more to do with the sublime Myles Garrett and the Cleveland defense than any offensive heroics that PJ Walker was responsible for in relief of an injured Watson.
Walker was just 15-of-32 for 178 yards, 0 touchdowns, and one interception. The Browns have the 31st-ranked passing offense and will rely heavily on Kareem Hunt. But the Seahawks’ run-stop unit is ranked 8th in the league and has an offense led by Geno Smith who has several able weapons at his disposal, chief among them are DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
The Pick
The Seahawks can’t stop Myles Garrett, they can only hope to contain him, and if they do this is a slam dunk for the Hawks.
NFL Pick: Seahawks -3 (-128) buying the hook at Heritage Sports – For 2 units
Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
Key Stats
- Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
- Carolina is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
Texans’ Path to Victory
When you think of C.J. Stroud you think of an up-and-comer, a rising star, someone we will be watching into the next decade. Do those thoughts leap to mind when considering Bryce Young? Well, let’s put it this way, according to reports before the draft, the Carolina coaches wanted Stroud at No. 1 overall but they were overruled by ownership.
Don’tcha just love it when rich, oblivious dudes screw the pooch? And that’s precisely what they did because Bryce Young looks dazed and confused while C.J. Stroud appears large and in charge.
The Panthers lost two key defensive pieces in Shaq Thompson and Xavier Woods which has allowed opposing offenses to run roughshod over them. Carolina is ranked 31st in points against them and 23rd in scoring which means they don’t play well on either side of the ball.
The Pick
I see the Texans salivating at the opportunity to beat up a weak opponent after performing well against the Saints’ 7th-ranked defense last week in Houston’s 20-13 victory. The Texans will cruise in this one and get little resistance from a toothless Panthers defense.
NFL Pick: Texans -3 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) – For 4 units
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions
Monday, October 30, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Ford Field
Key Stats
- Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
- Detroit is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games.
- Detroit is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home.
A Major Hurdle for the Raiders
There are teams worth fading no matter who they play or whether they are listed as dogs or the favorites. The Raiders are 3-3-1 against the number so they don’t truly fit this profile but a team that averages just 16 points per game (30th) is always on my radar as long as they are facing a team that can put points on the board.
Lo and behold, the Lions are precisely that team, scoring nearly 25 points (8th) and averaging 377 total yards per game, ranking them 4th in that category. How are the Raiders going to keep pace with that?
We should also note the Cats are coming off an atrocious performance in Baltimore against one of the best defenses in the league which means the public will lay off them and the line won’t go out of sight.
The Raiders will present no such obstacle and, as previously stated, I can see the public’s appetite for betting on Detroit rather weak as Joe Q. Public thinks in one-week mental snapshots and won’t recall the Lions’ 42-24 spanking of Carolina a few weeks ago.
The Pick
I believe this spread should be Detroit -11 ½ which means -8 looks awfully appealing.
NFL Pick: Lions -8 (-108) at Heritage Sports – For 4 units
The Woodman’s Corner (2-5 ATS)
If you have been “betting the farm” as advised by the Woodman this year then I’m afraid all you have left is a rake and perhaps a few chickens. Yes, I’m afraid it was another losing week for our friend from parts unknown when he suggested that the Dolphins plus the points over the Eagles on Sunday night was your ticket to financial freedom.
However, if there is a silver lining, I would remind you that we have witnessed notoriously slow starts from the Woodman before and it is rare he has a losing season. Nevertheless, he is certainly tempting fate this season and telling all who will listen to drink the Kool-Aid – ala Jim Jones.
Well, I am hoping the Woodman’s version of a delicious, refreshing beverage is neither toxic nor fatal as he is pinning his hopes on a young upstart named Tyson Bagent, an undrafted rookie who acquitted himself quite nicely in his NFL debut last week.
The Woodman says there’s nothing sweeter than a repeater and if you’ll pardon the familiar refrain, “Bet the Farm on the Bears!”
Woodman’s Pick: Bears +9 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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